And for all of those who try to draw some kind of moral equivalence between “us” and “them”, I say this…

What would happen if every other nation on the planet destroyed its arms and denounced violence? The answer: Peace. We are not imperialists. We want to instill freedom and peace (albeit based on our view of the world), not conquer.

What would happen if we destroyed our arms and denounced violence? All I can say is you better learn new languages and figure out which god you will be praying to.

If you can’t see the difference you are blissfully ignorant.

1. You must know what victory looks like. Neither in Vietnam nor Iraq did we ever define victory.

2. In ANY war, the key is to remember that war is political, first and foremost. Military power is an extension of politics. The US forgot that in both Vietnam and Iraq. Just look at my war against Terra to understand what I mean.

First of all, as I tried to communicate in my post, the problem in Iraq isn’t that we lost a war….it’s that we’ve completely screwed up an occupation to the point where we’ve allowed an insurgency completely independent of the government we went in to depose to gain control of significant parts of the country.

The second, related, problem is that it is exceedlingly clear that nobody in command had any plan for how to carry out the occupation of a conquered Iraq.

And that has been the problem we’ve been trying to deal with for 3 1/2 years now.

Lesson #2 is still with us. But at least we aren’t in Vietnam.

Yes, Vietnam obviously started out as an insurgency, but it was an insurgency that had direct, credible ties with an established state (the North). In addition to that, after Tet the VC ceased to exist. The battles were still being fought in the jungle, and the enemy still appeared to melt away, but they were NVA regulars and they didn’t melt into the civilian population; they simply retreated further into the jungle.

The point here is that a “large bombing campaign” or any other sort of large application of conventional military force would have little to no effect in Iraq, unless we’re willing to bomb Iran and Syria, and that’s a whole ‘nother can of worms.

More importantly, the American people aren’t engaged with the war. Unless you have someone close who is in the military, most people don’t have a connection to the war beyond what they see/hear through the media.

The political will of the nation is THE most important Center of Gravity (CoG) in the kind of warfare we have been fighting, with a few exceptions, since Vietnam, and will be fighting for a very long time. You wouldn’t know that by the emphasis the administration has put on that front.

They’ve ceded the most important CoG to our foes, and that’s the biggest reason they won’t be treated kindly by history.

Now, interestingly, Iraq is a proxy war as well, with the contestants being, respectively, the US and Iran. Iran is in the same boat as the USSR, shaky economy, limited currency reserves. The currency of al Qaeda, people, is even shakier. There are only so many people willing to die for the cause and capable of dying in a way that is beneficial to the cause. Consider the implications of two more years in Iraq, plus, undoubtedly, a couple more years of war after we withdraw. Especially if oil prices aren’t sustained at the current, or higher, levels. Iran will bankrupt themselves to “win” in Iraq. A hollow victory really, a bunch more sand and swamps and Shi’ite Arabs, much of the oil in Kirkuk rather than Shi’ite controlled territory. Al Qaeda will expend many more dedicated lives and end up with … Baghdad and Fallujah, at the most.

No, I really don’t think this is the beginning of the end, or anything like that. I do think that Bush and Rumsfeld badly mismanaged the political side of this war and they are paying the price. Unfortunately, so are we. Dead and wounded soldiers, an Army that will be somewhat hollow, the treasure expended, and the budget deficits engendered by fighting a war on a peacetime budget (i.e. the LBJ syndrome). There will be some malaise, some retreat, a recession perhaps.

But the end? No, in fact, I suspect that the Salafist and Shi’ite extremists are on the brink of overreach that will do them in.

On the subject of the “occupation”…
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“Hague Conventions of 1907 – Laws and Customs of War on Land – Art. 42.

Territory is considered occupied when it is actually placed under the authority of the hostile army. ”

How are we a “hostile army” when the government of that territory does not want us to leave?
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On the subject of “it was sold to the American public, and the world, as a necessary action to remove from power a man who was hiding weapons of mass destruction”

From “President Bush Outlines Iraqi Threat” dated October 7, 2002, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/10/20021007-8.html

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Tonight I want to take a few minutes to discuss a grave threat to peace, and America’s determination to lead the world in confronting that threat.

The threat comes from Iraq. It arises directly from the Iraqi regime’s own actions — its history of aggression, and its drive toward an arsenal of terror. Eleven years ago, as a condition for ending the Persian Gulf War, the Iraqi regime was required to destroy its weapons of mass destruction, to cease all development of such weapons, and to stop all support for terrorist groups. The Iraqi regime has violated all of those obligations. It possesses and produces chemical and biological weapons. It is seeking nuclear weapons. It has given shelter and support to terrorism, and practices terror against its own people. The entire world has witnessed Iraq’s eleven-year history of defiance, deception and bad faith.
—

Sounds like there were several reasons that we were “sold”, any one of which were justification for the war under UN 1441 (read it if you think otherwise).

As far as what was found in Iraq:

From David Kay’s ISG testimony (http://www.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/10/02/kay.report/)
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“We have discovered dozens of WMD-related program activities and significant amounts of equipment that Iraq concealed from the United Nations during the inspections that began in late 2002. The discovery of these deliberate concealment efforts have come about both through the admissions of Iraqi scientists and officials concerning information they deliberately withheld and through physical evidence of equipment and activities that ISG has discovered that should have been declared to the UN. ”
—

Who’s selling us something now???? Sounds like you and the mainstream media.

The Truth…
1. War sucks. The intelligence was flawed. “Stay the course” is a horrible, failed mantra.
2. Iraq violated the terms of 1441. That resolution provided the authority to take action.

The only way we WILL win a war against extremists is with the assistance of moderates. Iraq was seen (right or wrong) as a “winnable” way to take down a bad guy and show those who would be extremists that freedom was a better way. While the war has had the opposite effect in the short term, the long term effect could go either way. If the people of Iraq are able to elect a government, and that government is able to protect itself from foreign terrorists while keeping peace and freedom within its own borders; many will see this as a sign of hope.

If this approach does not work, we will be at a crossroad of irreconcilable differences. On one side, the philosophy that one god rules supreme and non believers are to be conquered; that freedom allows evil and evil must be smitten. On the other side, the belief that freedom reigns supreme; that we must take the good and bad it begets. When that day comes, be prepared for a war that relegates the current conflict in Iraq to the status of minor skirmish. I pray that day never comes.

Joe

If we are going to withdraw, we must withdraw immediately because a phased withdrawal will only put American troops in unnecssary risk as the terrorists step up their attacks. Furthermore, continuing to arm and train the Iraqi security forces at this point is only arming at best a sectarian army in a Northern Ireland type religious war at worst an Iranian proxy army. However, we need to make provisions to evacuate all those Iraqis who did work with us as translaters and in other capacities and those Iraqi leaders who are civilized.

In all in all, history will not be kind to George W. Bush and when the day comes when America loses the War on Islamic Terror, which I believe is now inevitable, Iraq will be seen as the Midway in this war.