You are 100% on point Mr. Jay and I really thank you for those comments. I am a passionate supporter of Taiwan and I hope one day Taiwan will just be Taiwan. Thank you.

However, that is all history. Adam’s comment may have been accurate 15 years ago, but the political climate has changed in Taiwan, and most of the populace now identifies itself with Taiwan, and not China. Since the end of martial rule, the Taiwanese government also no longer contests China’s rule over the mainland, and the comment that it views itself as a government in exile no longer stands. The Taiwan “province” has also been abolished quite a few years back.

The common view now in Taiwan is that the “Republic of China” is a sovereign independent country limited to Taiwan and its outlying islands, separate from the “People’s Republic of China”. If you ask someone from Taiwan to draw you their country, they will most likely draw you an outline of Taiwan, and not China. When you ask them if they come from China, they will most likely say no. When you ask them their nationality, they will most likely say Taiwanese. The only remaining link, I guess, is ethnicity. Generally, unless the question posed is overtly political, most people in Taiwan would not really mind being called Chinese. Most still recognize the roots of their culture.

Despite the sense of separateness, the issue of independence is still hotly debated. This is not really due to a division over whether or not they see Taiwan as a province of China. It’s actually more a matter of choosing independence or avoiding war. With war out of the equation, most Taiwanese would choose independence in a heartbeat. The debate is whether the push for formal independence is worth the war that may follow.

The days where both sides wanted to be China as long gone. The Taiwanese definitely want to be independent. It’s just whether the international community will let them.

The act authorizes quasi-diplomatic relations with the ROC government by giving special powers to the American Institute in Taiwan to the level it is the de facto embassy, and upholds all international obligations previously made between the ROC and U.S. prior to 1979 (with the exeception of the Mutual Defence Treaty between the United States of America and the Republic of China, which was quietly allowed to expire in 1980, see Goldwater v. Carter).

The act defines the term “Taiwan” includes, as the context may require, the islands of Taiwan and the Pescadores. Thus, the act does not apply to Kinmen or Matsu.

The act stipulates that the United States will “consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area are of grave concern to the United States.”

This act also requires the United States “to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character”, and “to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.” However, it does not necessarily require the United States to take any military action against the PRC in the event of an attack. The Taiwan Relations Act has been used by successive U.S. administrations to justify arms sales to the ROC, despite adopting a One-China Policy, which is not exactly the same as the PRC’s. However, many analysts recognize that as U.S.-Chinese policy continues to become more intertwined and collaborative in approach, the interpretation of TRA by U.S. policymakers will likely revert back to its original intentions, and more-closely bind to the Three Communiques and the One-China Policy.

The PRC does not recognize the legitimacy of the Taiwan Relations Act as it is viewed by them as “an unwarranted intrusion by the United States into the internal affairs of China.” In the late 1990s, the United States Congress passed a resolution stating that relations between Taiwan and the United States will be honored through the TRA first. This resolution, which puts greater weight on the TRA’s value over that of the three communiques, was signed by President Clinton as well. Nonetheless, the United States, despite having “acknowledged” the PRC’s position regarding Taiwan, declared that “the United States would not formally recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan” as part of the Six Assurances offered to Taipei in 1982.

Taiwan is already independent from China. Taiwan has never been governed by the People’s Republic of China, and since 1895 has only been part of China for 4 years (1945-49).

So Taiwan is already indpendent. It is time for everyone to get used to it.

But regardless of the U.S., Japan will also not allow a Chinese takeover of Taiwan because having the PLA on Taiwan would be Japan’s worse security nightmare for a thousand years. China would begin to choke shipping routes and threaten Japan’s supply of oil and other resources, and Japan knows it. So Japan too would defend Taiwan regardless of American desires or intentions.

The most likely outcome is that China has a political implosion and breaks up into several nation states, as China has not adapted its governing structures to suit its wealthier and information-based economy. With 80,000 anti-government protests last year compared to 50,000 the year before, there is something simmering in China particularly in the countryside. All of that corruption and oppression is starting to catch up.

Let me just add something in here: what I am saying is that just in case (key phrase “just in case”) things do hit the fan, the United States should know what to do. As for a declaration of liberty, it will result in huge damage, but not necessarily a forced reunification with China. Also I don’t think the Chinese government is content with the status quo. I think they want to change all that (eventually, evidence? The anti-successionist law…again..lol). Let’s both hope that those Commies in Beijing are not crazy.

Also interal riots within China has been identified by Commies as the single internal source that can destroy their power. (Just on the news). I really hope Mr Brad, that China’s government will not try to turn those riots into an aggression or nationalistic sentiment against Taiwan. We have already seen what happened with Japan. It’s like I say before, those folks will do anything to keep their grip on power. Allowing economic freedoms, giving people illusions, whatever it takes man.

But I do agree with your argument. I just hope Taiwan can be free and independent. (Just my opinion and hope)

Bear in mind, I’m arguing from the point of pragmatism first here. War is bad for both nations. Taiwan is doing quite well with their nearly-full independence. China is doing better every day with the economic boon they’re getting from Taiwanese investment and exports. Right now, the status quo is working.

I’m not advocating reunification. That may occur in the future, that may not. But Taiwan has no desire to unify with the current Chinese administration. Reunification right now would be bad for Taiwan. I’m also not advocating a declaration of liberty, because I see the potential for destruction, economic collapse, and then a forced reunification with China. Since it appears that all courses of action are bad, I think it’s smart not to take actions likely to change that status quo.

As I said, it’s not a situation I like very much. But the likely alternatives appear to be worse.

Economic integration alone does not mean a whole nation should become a part of China. If that was the case then Canada should be integrated with the United States. I do not mean any disrespect but that point of argument from you is not based on solid foundation.

As I have said before, no one can conclude what is actually going to happen. Just because nations are linked economically doesn’t mean anything. There’s a lot of “ifs” and “buts” in this particular issue. So I am just being realistic here. Think about it Doug, just why hasn’t Taiwan aligned itself with China? Why is the sentiment shifting more towards a sovereign Taiwan? Is it because the seed of democracy sprouts the idea of freedom? Think on that. Thank you.

Given the economic integration that already exists between China and Taiwan, much of it under the table, I don’t think it’s in the interest of either side to let a hot war come about.

A better example of how this entire situation will, I am betting, resolve itself can be found in how China dealt with the reacquisition of Hong Kong and Macao. Rather than being aggressive, they were actually quite peaceful about it — and it got them what they wanted.

Doug I do not disagree with Brad at all. I really want to just bring up what you just now stated, it is Taiwan’s right to decide its destiny, not the U.S. or China’s. If Taiwan wants independence, it would hurt the Communist Party in China because they have lied to the Chinese people and linked reunifying Taiwan to some sort of sacred duty for the Chinese nation. As a matter of fact, just the point that Taiwan has been so patient in waiting for China to be a democracy should really be noticed. In spite of all these threats and diplomatic isolation China has put against Taiwan, Taiwan still won’t get turned off and tries to give China a chance at being a democracy. Why? Because a democratic China is more transparent and people wouldn’t have to worry about their basic freedoms being taken away. Also a democratic China would probably (key word is “probably”) be okay with an independent Taiwan because hey, there’s no harm at that point is there? Again I thank Doug and Brad for continuing this discussion.

As for predicting the outcome of possible conflict Doug and placing bets on Beijing even if your heart is for Taiwan, perhaps you may mean if only Taiwan and China were involved? But even if that were the case, consider what I have just stated earlier. Don’t come to conclusion because of different analysis of different people. War is unpredictable. I don’t think the U.S. would sit there and allow China to invade Taiwan period. Also even if the U.S. wasn’t involved, you think Japan is going to just sit there? Taiwan is awfully close to southern Japan and Japan needs the Taiwan Straits neutral so that it can import much needed resources. Don’t underestimate Japan’s military either. So you may lose your money on this bet Doug (I’m just kidding with you). But seriously, the United States won’t let that happen. (At least I hope not!)

If the Taiwanese want to declare independence, that is certainly their right. The question, which Brad rightly brings up, is whether it would be the right thing to do under the circumstances.

Surely you don’t believe that China would just sit back and do nothing in the face of such a declaration ?

We both know that won’t happen.

So, a Taiwanese declaration of independence would lead, most likely to some type of action by the Chinese. It could be outright invasion, or it could be a blockade followed up by intimidation. The question is who would win in such a conflict. My money would be on Beijing, although my heart might be rooting for Taipei.