Ron Paul’s Presidential Chances
With today’s announcement that Ron Paul is running for president, speculation will begin almost immediately about Ron Paul’s chances for getting the Republican nomination. The conventional wisdom is that Ron Paul has no chance in hell. The conventional wisdom in this case, may be wrong and underestimating Paul’s chances. Here’s why:
1) There is no limited government candidate in the Republican primary right now, though if (although it’s unlikely) Newt Gingrich or if South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford enter the race, that could change.
2) Ron Paul can appeal to most wings of the Republican party from the Buchanan-Tancredo paleoconservatives (immigration and trade) to the libertarian (stances on federalism and spending) and moderate wings (opposition to Iraq War) to even some measure of acceptability from social conservatives (pro-life and anti-gay marriage). The only wing Paul may have problems with, ironically, is the Chamber of Commerce crowd who disagrees with Paul on everything from immigration to trade. Also, the Chamber of Commerce crowd has no vested interest in limited government since big government and the threat of big government allows them to buy our “leaders” at will.
3) Ron Paul will have a grassroots organization out of the various libertarian and limited government activists in many, if not most, primary states; especially the home of the Free State Project (which is the first primary).
Now Ron Paul’s two major drawbacks will be:
1) Lack of big money donors. Although he will receive many small contributions to offset.
2) Lack of name recognition, though this will change after the first debate in May.
I wouldn’t write Ron Paul off just yet.