RSS 2.0 FeedChina And The Law Of Unintended Consequences
by Doug MataconisFor more than a generation, China has strictly enforced it’s so-called “one child” policy. As a culture, China is also heavily biased toward male babies to the point where, in response to the restriction on only having one child, parents have actually aborted a baby simply because it’s a girl.
Now, the chickens are coming home to roost:
BEIJING — China will have 30 million more men of marriageable age than women in less than 15 years as a gender imbalance resulting in part from the country’s tough one-child policy becomes more pronounced, state media reported Friday. Traditional preferences for sons has led to the widespread – but illegal – practice of women aborting babies if an early term sonogram shows it is a girl.
The tens of millions of men who will not be able to find a wife could also lead to social instability problems, the China Daily said in a front-page report.
(…)
The report, carried in the newspaper, said China’s sex ratio for newborn babies in 2005 was 118 boys to 100 girls, a huge jump from 110 to 100 in 2000.
In some regions such as the southern provinces of Guangdong and Hainan, the ratio has ballooned to 130 boys to 100 girls, the newspaper said. The average for industrialized countries is between 104 and 107 boys for every 100 girls.
The report predicted that by 2020 the imbalance would mean men of marriageable age _ especially those with low income or little education _ would find it difficult to find wives, resulting in possible social problems.
The problem is not just a rural issue, with the newborn gender imbalance also widening in cities. In the first 11 months of 2006, there were 109 boys born in Beijing for every 100 girls
Not a shock really, but, as the article points out, the consequence of large numbers of young men unable to find wives could lead to instablilty both inside China and for the rest of the world.
H/T: QandO
There is no question this is a major demographic time bomb; but there is one caveat to those numbers; and that is the death rate amonth young males (under the age of 25), averages between 10% and 20% higher around the world (because young men do more risky things than young women generally).
Again, this demographic imbalance is a huge problem, but the raw numbers alone distort the issue.
For example, America (as a whole, some local populations are a bit different) births between 2% and 5% more surviving (past the first 90 days) male babies for every surviving female; but by the time those cohorts reach 25 there are actually about two percent fewer males surviving than females.
Comment by Chris Byrne — January 13, 2007 @ 10:17 am