The Liberty Papers

Quinnipiac University conducted a poll that was released today showing the performance of the candidates in the 2008 presidential elections if they were held today. The results are possibly surprising in some areas. The most important thing to remember about these numbers is that these are mostly based on the first impressions and name recognition. First up, the Democratic field in the order Quinnipiac gives the numbers:

DEMOCRATS……….
Tot Men Wom

Gore 11% 14% 8%
Vilsack – – –
Biden 1 2 1
Edwards 6 7 6
Richardson 2 1 2
Clinton 38 33 42
Obama 23 25 21
Dodd – – –
Clark 2 3 1
Kucinich 1 1 1
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1
WLDN’T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1
DK/NA 13 11 14

Note that Al Gore and Wesley Clark are probably not running. What these numbers tell me is that Democrats are looking for an alternative to Hillary because Hillary’s numbers are surprisingly weak for someone with virtual 100% name ID. If the Nutroot® wing of the Democratic party can unite behind an anti-Hillary candidate, she’s done. Also, Edwards’s numbers are also surprisingly weak given his high name ID as well.

Now for the Republicans:

REPUBLICANS……..
Tot Men Wom

Giuliani 40% 42% 38%
McCain 18 19 16
Romney 7 6 9
Gingrich 10 12 7
Hunter 2 2 2
Brownback 1 – 1
Thompson 1 1 1
Gilmore – – –
Hagel – – –
Huckabee 2 2 1
Pataki 1 2 1
Tancredo 1 – 1
Paul 1 1 1
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1
WLDN’T VOTE(VOL) – 1 –
DK/NA 15 11 21

Giuliani is way out in front (22 points ahead of McCain, compared to Hillary being 15 points ahead of Obama) against a guy like McCain with a high name ID. Romney’s attempts at building name recognition have not been succeeding, which given his various flip-flops, is probably a good thing at this point. Gingrich continues to poll well even though he probably will not run. There is still room for a challenger to Guiliani from the right, but that window is closing. Conservative favorites Sam Brownback and Mike Huckabee will gain strength as the primary process continues. Ron Paul is polling 1% in the first poll he’s featured in, however, these numbers are probably low because it doesn’t take into account independents and his numbers will climb as name ID grows. My guess is on the Republican side, Guiliani will win the nomination if there is no strong united challenge from either social conservatives or from limited government voters.

More evidence of Hillary’s weakness:

12. Is your opinion of — Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about her?

Wht Evan
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom BrnAgain

Favorable 46% 10% 77% 42% 36% 54% 32%
Unfavorable 45 87 13 45 54 37 62
Hvn’t hrd enough 7 2 8 9 7 7 5
REFUSED 2 1 2 3 3 1 1

Red Blue Purple

Favorable 42% 52% 43%
Unfavorable 51 41 43
Hvn’t hrd enough 5 5 11
REFUSED 2 2 3

Not only is Hillary too conservative for the Democratic party, she’s also unelectable to boot. Another reason why she won’t be the nominee.

Now some personal numbers for Guiliani:

15. Is your opinion of — Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven’t you heard enough about him?

Wht Evan
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom BrnAgain

Favorable 57% 81% 38% 62% 62% 53% 62%
Unfavorable 21 10 34 16 22 20 16
Hvn’t hrd enough 21 9 26 22 16 25 21
REFUSED 1 – 2 1 – 1 1

Red Blue Purple

Favorable 57% 60% 54%
Unfavorable 19 22 22
Hvn’t hrd enough 23 17 23
REFUSED 1 1 1

His numbers among Republicans are surprisingly high for a social liberal. Plus, he still has room to grow among the 15% undecided. He’s also likeable enough among the general voters to be considered electable. He’s the man to beat for the Republican nomination.