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February 28, 2007

Ron Paul — Polls, Prognostications, ‘pinions & Prediction Markets

by Brad Warbiany

A lot of verbal arrows have been loosed around here about the candidacy of Ron Paul. Some people think he’s the greatest thing since sliced bread Patrick Henry. Others worry he’s not “libertarian enough”, or point out his anti-immigration stances as if that may be a reason to disqualify him from receiving our votes.

In fact, Ron Paul has become a bit of an blogosphere superhero, winning straw polls and igniting excitement that far outstrips even what Howard Dean had. While Dean was a firebrand who could change the pulse of a crowd, he didn’t have a quarter of the experience in government or the intellectual and ideological heft that Ron Paul carries.

But the question is, does Ron Paul have a chance of getting the nomination? If he does, does he have a chance of beating the Democrat candidate he’ll be facing? And, as libertarians, what should we do to reconcile his anti-immigration policies with his normally consistent pro-freedom policies?

Well, the prognosticators have weighed in, and as usual, left a situation clear as mud. Some say Paul has a chance to be a dark horse candidate amongst the big heavies, and will only gain as their records and baggage weigh against their personalities and name recognition. Others say Paul might make for a good sideshow, bringing topics that big-government Republicans don’t want to address into the debates. He’ll drag the whole field back towards libertarian ideals; but those prognosticators don’t think he’ll manage to get the nomination. If he does manage to get the nomination, some folks think he’ll pull huge groups of Democrats over to him for his stances on the Iraq war (particularly if he’s against Hillary) and the War on (Some) Drugs. Others worry that his small-government policies scaring off those same Democrats, and that he may hemorrhage votes from Republicans with his policies on the Iraq War and the War on (Some) Drugs. That’s even leaving out the whole issue of age. In essence, the prognosticators can’t tell us whether he’ll win the nomination, and if he wins the nomination, whether he’d have a chance at winning the presidency. Considering that a guy like Giuliani polls well against the big Democrats, and is largely loved (despite his personal life) by Republicans, would it be smarter to like Ron Paul on a personal level but put our weight behind Giuliani or another politician who can win, and who will at least be better for liberty and low taxes than a President Obama, Clinton, or Edwards?

Personally, I say no. I’m going to support Ron Paul for as long as he’s in the field. I have my concerns about a few of his positions, but he is far and away better than any other Republican or Democrat currently under discussion. Most candidates will force us to hold our noses simply to keep from retching if we vote for them; Ron Paul’s odorous positions are like mild B.O. in comparison. If he’s running when the primaries come to my state, I’ll vote for Paul. If he manages to secure the nomination, I’ll vote for him in the general election. And I’m not doing so simply to vote for the “best” Republican over other Republicans, because I will likely vote Libertarian if Ron Paul is out of the race. I’d rather vote for Ron Paul, a 95% libertarian running as a Republican, than vote for a 100% Libertarian Party candidate who doesn’t have a chance of even being invited to the debates.

But, alas, reality must set in eventually. The polls currently have Ron Paul as a 1% candidate. He’s up against a behemoth in Giuliani, and the only “major” candidate I see him pulling support from would be Gingrich; if Gingrich doesn’t run or is marginalized early. Giuliani and McCain, who currently hold 65% of the poll votes, are not known for being small-government civil libertarians, so if one of them starts to really knock off the other, that candidate will take the nomination with ease.

Of course, polls are ridiculously inaccurate in a lot of cases. So I decided to check out Intrade, a prediction market. I tend to trust what people will put their money behind more than I would trust what they “say” they support. So if Paul was pulling 2-3% in the prediction market, a point or two ahead of his actual poll result, I would think that folks may be putting stock in the idea that he’ll do much better once his name recognition grows. However, Intrade has him at 0.2%, not even 1%. When someone is polling higher than the prediction market, one gets the impression that he might be a slight “fan favorite”, but that everyone knows he doesn’t have a shot. This is trailing Huckabee, Brownback, and Hagel. This even trails Condeleeza Rice by a point, who is almost a lock NOT to run.

The numbers may change, of course. It’s possible that Ron Paul’s internet success will catapult his name and his policies into the spotlight, and Americans will magically lose their tendency to worry more about what their neighbors are doing than what is happening in their own families. Should that happen, I’ll be one of the first cheerleaders. But I’m not confident enough to put my money where my mouth is.

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12 Comments

  1. Good analysis. Unfortunately, libertarians are engaging in the favorite meal — eating our young — over the Ron Paul candidacy. Paul’s participation in a “major” party nomination process is a good thing for libertarianism. He is, IMHO, the best libertarian candidate running for any party’s nomination. Perhaps if he gets enough coverage in the primaries, even if he doesn’t win, he’ll help the argument for putting the Libertarian Party candidate in the debates.

    Comment by Brian Irving — February 28, 2007 @ 11:39 am
  2. Aside from blogging about Paul, one of the things I’m doing to help is mentioning his name in every political discussion I have. I interact with a lot of people at work, at various public events and on airplanes, in hotels, etc. In the past month I have told something on the order of 50 people to check out Ron Paul as an alternative.

    Why am I doing this? A couple reasons. The first is, if every one of us can reach 10 or 20 or 30 people with the message, we can help him gain name recognition. The second is, the vast majority of people I interact with, whether Republican, Democrat, Independent or other, are very disaffected with the entire crowd of recognizable folks running for President. This is a chance to influence them to look at someone who is not as well known.

    We might just be able to spark a grass roots campaign. hmmmmm, I think I have a blog post coming up soon …..

    Comment by Adam Selene — February 28, 2007 @ 12:13 pm
  3. Could someone tell me why he opposes direct election of senators?

    Comment by Matt S — February 28, 2007 @ 1:33 pm
  4. Sure… See this entry at QandO for a good rundown.

    Basically, States are parties to the Constitution, as are the people themselves. Thus, it makes sense both to have the people represented and the States represented. Direct election of Senators causes them to be representatives of the people directly, as opposed to the interests of the states.

    Direct election of senators erodes an institutional check on the power of the federal government, leading to greater centralization of power in Washington and less of the whole “federalism” thing and local control that most libertarians argue for.

    That’s the short answer, as I said, head over to QandO for the long answer.

    Comment by Brad Warbiany — February 28, 2007 @ 1:45 pm
  5. You know, all of this “Paul can’t win” is a self fullfilling prophesy. If you’d all actually support him instead of talking about how much he can’t win he’d have a chance.

    Tracy

    Comment by Tracy Saboe — February 28, 2007 @ 9:11 pm
  6. Tracy,

    I support him, but I’m also realistic.

    Comment by Doug Mataconis — February 28, 2007 @ 11:55 pm
  7. I recommend that everyone vote their hearts, minds, and guts… Vote for the best candidate, no matter who says they have a chance or not of winning. If everyone followed this advice, we’d have at least a few better people in gov’t than we do now.

    My heart, mind, and gut all say: Vote for Ron Paul.

    Comment by Bruce — February 28, 2007 @ 11:59 pm
  8. [...] The Liberty Papers on Ron Paul’s election chances: I’m going to support Ron Paul for as long as he’s in the [...]

    Pingback by Hear ItFrom.Us » 100 to 1 — March 2, 2007 @ 12:20 pm
  9. Ron Paul has a chance to win the nomination, because the presumed front-runners are incredibly weak, and the second tier candidates aren’t very far ahead of him in name recognition.

    Giuliani is far too liberal on social issues to appeal to conservatives in the primaries. McCain is aging quickly, and pushing for a troop increase in Iraq will doom his candidacy. Romney has flip-flopped more than John Kerry.

    Ignore the polls, and spread the news. Mention Ron Paul whenever you can. If you see a major media story on the candidates without his name in it, drop a line to the editor.

    Better yet, forget about intrade.com and send the money where it can actually help — to his exploratory committee.

    Get over the fact that he’s running in the Republican primaries — he’s a Republican, and by far the best major party candidate from a libertarian perspective.

    Comment by Lex — March 5, 2007 @ 12:08 am
  10. Ron Paul’s main point on the immigrations issue is that the current system provides too many incentives that encourage illegal immigration. Remove the incentives, free health care, education, etc., and the problem diminishes considerably. I don’t find that position very hard to reconcile with libertarian values.

    Comment by Mike In WNY — March 13, 2007 @ 1:22 am
  11. Keep getting his name out there and if you can send him some money. Money is going to make him competitive. Liberty is worth a few bucks isn’t it?
    http://www.ronpaul.org

    I also enourage ppl to think about writing in his name in the general election if he doesn’t win nomination.
    If it becomes a three way race he only needs 35% to win.
    Libertarians, Constitituionalists, and Republican Conservatives could pull 35% easy.

    Comment by Davy C Rockett — March 17, 2007 @ 10:18 pm
  12. Ron Paul is getting some love in this poll

    http://www.xfusenews.com/

    Ron Paul maybe our last chance at restoring our Constitutional Republic.

    Comment by uhm — March 17, 2007 @ 10:57 pm

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