RSS 2.0 FeedIs North Korea As Big A Threat As We Think It Is ?
by Doug MataconisFour years ago, the United States went to war in Iraq because we, and, admittedly, the rest of the world, believed that Saddam Hussein was harboring weapons of mass destruction. Within months after the fall of the Ba’athist regime, the intelligence that supported that conclusion was proven to be completely inaccurate.
Now, it seems that the danger posed by North Korea’s supposed nuclear weapons program may have been exaggerated as well:
The Bush administration is backing away from its long-held assertions that North Korea has an active clandestine program to enrich uranium, leading some experts to believe that the original U.S. intelligence that started the crisis over Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions may have been flawed.
The chief intelligence officer for North Korea, Joseph R. DeTrani, told Congress on Tuesday that while there is “high confidence” North Korea acquired materials that could be used in a “production-scale” uranium program, there is only “mid-confidence” such a program exists. Meanwhile, Assistant Secretary of State Christopher R. Hill, the chief negotiator for disarmament talks, last week told a conference in Washington that it is unclear if North Korea ever mastered the production techniques necessary for such a program.
As the article points out this isn’t exactly what the Bush Administration was saying five years ago:
The administration’s stance today stands in sharp contrast to the certainty expressed by top officials in 2002, when the administration accused Pyongyang of running a secret uranium program — and demanded it be dismantled at once. President Bush told a news conference that November: “We discovered that contrary to an agreement they had with the United States, they’re enriching uranium, with a desire of developing a weapon.”
Fortunately, we weren’t foolish enough to go to war with North Korea over the faulty intelligence we had back then.
Unfortunately, one cannot say the same thing for Iraq.
Didn’t North Korea detonate a small nuclear device? Might this indicate a progressive nuclear weapons program?
Comment by Prospector — March 1, 2007 @ 9:47 amPropsector,
The “nuclear” device was a dud. My guess is, the North Koreans can build a nuclear bomb, they just can’t detonate them.
Comment by Kevin — March 1, 2007 @ 10:43 amThey also lack sufficient economic capacity to ever develop an arsenal capable of threatening America’s survival or the delivery systems to get the nukes there. The worst-case scenario is (if they kept developing weapons systems), they’d be able to launch off a nuke or two that might hit one or two of our cities (depending on how lucky they get with their poor targeting systems)…which would likely result in a massive U.S. retaliation and the end of the North Korea government (and possibly North Korea) as we know it. Brinksmanship favors us, as does any kind of arms race. North Korea would destroy itself economically attempting to build a significant nuclear threat. Our biggest concern is proliferation of nuclear materials to terror groups, but China has a definite interest in never seeing that happen, and we could set up containment of North Korea relatively easily (easier than Iraq in any case).
The nuclear scare has been Kim Jong-il’s biggest bluff and Bush has absolutely overblown it.
Comment by UCrawford — March 1, 2007 @ 12:32 pmWhatever the state of CIA ‘knowledge’ about North Korea back in 2001 and 2002, the White House needed a good enemy for purely rhetorical purposes, to bolster the idea that the U.S. was under siege and would “have to” go on the offense. The main hidden agenda (besides providing the rationale for a politics of fear; besides petty spitefulness towards Clinton; and besides their fanatical support of Israeli rightists) was to destabilize the mideast and thus pave the way for untold billions in profits for the Carlyles and the Halliburtons. It worked. It also backfired, but not in any way that will hurt Our Boy George or his devious Dick. They got suckered into Kim Jong-il’s bluff, but they’re still laughing — all the way to the bank. With that kind of money, all the pride and military-loss issues just fade away like old soldiers.
Comment by Eikyu Saha — March 1, 2007 @ 3:38 pmDude, I thought I could be a too paranoid, but you’re about 50 cards short of a full deck.
Do you have any actual evidence to back up your Carlyle/Halliburton/Israel financial conspiracy claim there, or are you just one of those people who buy into insane theories because you have no concept of how governments actually work?
Comment by UCrawford — March 1, 2007 @ 4:15 pmNevermind, I just saw your comments on DailyKos and the Washington Post. Anyone who sings the praises of Hugo Chavez obviously has no idea how government works.
Comment by UCrawford — March 1, 2007 @ 4:39 pmI don’t think that there is a concern that North Korea will launch a nuclear attack on the United States. As others have said here, that may lead to the annihilation of the country, although I’m sure the calls for restraint and recrimination would be very loud. North Korea supplied rockets and SCUD missiles to Saddam (and others?) and although poorly guided, I still wouldn’t want to be on the receiving end. I think the concern is that, lacking any compassion for his people, nor any other peoples, Kim Jong Il would pass nuclear devices to international terrorist cells to detonate in western and asian cities. I think it’s a false comfort to think that it would never happen or that he’s not capable of this. I think it could a grave mistake to place our faith or fate in his hands. Only America can guarantee the safety of America.
Comment by Prospector — March 1, 2007 @ 8:11 pmThat is the real concern with North Korea. The reason why Kim Jong Il would do it, of course, is because North Korea is such a poor nation. The goal of the United States, with the help of China in this case, is to encourage Kim Jong Il to reform his economy and open it up. Also, the current US-led Proliferation Security Initiative has been successful and should be continued.
Comment by Kevin — March 1, 2007 @ 8:59 pmTo be honest, I think North Korea is on the verge of collapse.
Correct me if I am wrong, but something like 10% of the population was recently killed in a famine. I also understand a significant proportion of the population are laboring in a massive gulag, with a great deal of production being carried out in death camps, where political prisoners are worked to death.
I watched a video of an execution carried out in North Korea a few years back. The victim had been caught for the second time smuggling people out of the country. They stuffed his mouth with rocks (to prevent him from shouting anti-government slogans). Then, a firing squad of three men shot him down. I found this interesting for several reasons; it implies a shortage of ammunition, and it implies that people are desperate to leave. This guy had probably smuggled 50-60 people out of the country before they caught him. It also implies that the government is panicking. I’ve never heard of a public execution where they stuffed rocks in a man’s mouth anywhere else.
North Korean missions are expected to be self financing, and I understand that a significant portion of their revenue comes from drug smuggling. this endeavour, while lucrative is highly risky.
They have had several major industrial accidents. There was that explosion in a train station a few years ago. There also was the “fizzle” of the nuclear test that wasn’t.
Essentially, I see signs of an economy that is an empty shell, and a government that is increasingly afraid of its subjects.
I expect that in a few years, they will start to have trouble feeding the army. Then the system will completely break down, and the collapse will probably be sudden and quite horrid.
To be honest, I don’t see the North Koreans as much of a threat. They are powerful on paper, but the government depends on repression to get its way. I doubt that their army can temporarily capture even 50% of South Korea today. I doubt the Chinese will back them this time around. If they were to produce a couple of nuclear weapons, the weapons would be too precious to waste in actually blowing something up. They need to maintain them as a deterent against invasion.
Comment by tarran — March 1, 2007 @ 9:39 pmtarran:
Dead on analysis. I would add that the South Korean military is far more technologically advanced, better trained, and better equipped than the North Korean army. North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction would be the only advantage it has in an other Korean War and WMDs are meant to be weapons of terror and could be counteracted by proper defenses and other procedures, which the South Koreans have.
As for invasion, the ones who will be doing the invading will be the Chinese having to invade to stem a flow of refugees from the North once it collapses. Then, probably a joint US-South Korean force will move in the southern areas to stem a similar flow toward South Korea. North Korea would be propped up to continue as a separate state because China and Russia fear a united Korea, especially one with American brigades stationed in it.
Comment by Kevin — March 1, 2007 @ 11:25 pmI don’t know that North Korea is actually that close to collapse at this point, but they’re definitely struggling. But they’ve been struggling for the last 20 years…and the people still haven’t gotten rid of Kim Jong-il. The Chinese government, who have a stake in keeping swarms of refugees from flooding their border (which would happen if the DPRK collapsed), have been keeping the Kim regime propped up for years. Kim serves a useful purpose for them, acting as a buffer between the U.S.-allied South Koreans and their border. And he can be useful as a distraction whenever things get tense between us and China. And with the apparent willingness of the U.S. to deal with Kim lately, I think that the DPRK has bought themselves some time since any agreement probably includes the government being supplied with food and energy (their two most pressing needs).
Comment by UCrawford — March 2, 2007 @ 9:25 am