Ron Paul, The Polls, And Reality
For the first time in the 2008 campaign, Ron Paul has actually gotten press attention thanks to the showdown he had with Rudy Giuliani during Tuesday night’s debate. That may or may not be a good thing in the long run, but given the results of the latest Gallup poll, it certainly can’t hurt at this point.
Let me summarize.
Ron Paul has not gotten above the 2% in any poll of Republican voters that Gallup has done this year. There is no upward trend, there’s not even really a downward trend. It’s just a flatline.
That’s why this week, and the weeks that follow will be the test. If there is ever going to be a Ron Paul boomlet, this is when it’s going to happen. He’s been on the nightly news, CNN, Fox, all over the place. His name recognition is certainly higher than it has been at any point in the campaign to date. Whether that translates into support, though, is another question.
Now the reality part. If Ron Paul doesn’t start to move up in the polls significantly after this week, then I don’t think he ever will.Â If he doesn’t at least start moving past the Duncan Hunters, Sam Brownbacks and Jim Gilmores, then this isn’t going to last long at all.