Where’s The Ron Paul Surge?

For all of Ron Paul’s supposed online support, he’s not gaining support where it matters; among Republican voters:

This morning we have a new national poll, though it’s a small one: the Diageo/Hotline Poll, conducted by Financial Dynamics, May 16-20, 2007, 196 Republican primary voters nationwide.

The results?

After the jump…

Rudy Giuliani shows up about where he usually does these days, mid to high 20s. John McCain shows up a little lower than he has been showing up recently. Newt Gingrich makes a surprising showing. And you can read the rest:

Ron Paul, who was suppose to surge after his “victory” over Giuliani, is in second to last place in front of Tommy Thompson.

More bad news for Ron Paul, the independents in New Hampshire are probably going to vote Democratic.

UPDATE: No one’s supporting Ron Paul, literally, in the latest Zogby poll.

I’m one of the original co-founders of The Liberty Papers all the way back in 2005. Since then, I wound up doing this blogging thing professionally. Now I’m running the site now. You can find my other work at The Hayride.com and Rare. You can also find me over at the R Street Institute.
  • Seer

    Second to last is an improvement isn’t it? Also, he’s slowly been gaining in NH amongst registered Republicans.

    The big measure of his surge is fund raising. Apparently his campaign contributions shot up after May 15.

    BTW, 196 is a garbage poll. Not even the mainstream 1,003 people polls are that great.

    Oh yeah, and if his Giuliani attack campaign does nothing other than discrediting Il Duce, that’s a win in my book.

  • http://www.mystrangemind.com/ kahotep

    There have been 27 republican primary polls taken this calendar year WITHOUT referencing Ron Paul. And only 5 polls with Ron Paul. Here are the results in these polls.

  • Rich

    He is kicking but at the gop polls after he was added in http://www.gopstrawpolls.com

  • http://www.cannabisculture.com Marc Scott Emery

    Polls don’t matter at all as long as recruitment is going on as rapidly as has been happening in the past month. Famous people are becoming aware of Paul, mainstream media is covering Paul, he is developing a rapidly growing army of completely devoted people determined to make him the nominee. I have recruited hundreds of young people to register to vote so they can affiliate Republican to vote for Ron Paul in the primaries. Young people are taking to Paul with ferocious loyalty. When they watch all of Ron Paul’s videos, they have a sensation I felt when I first read Capitalism, The Unknown Ideal by Ayn Rand in my backyard in the summer of 1980.

    Every day that goes by that Ron Paul lives and speaks is a better day for America. Its not a time to wonder when others will catch on, it is THE time to go out and actively recruit!!! Get them to watch the videos or read Dr. Paul’s writings. After that, if they are searching for idealism, its a slam dunk!

    The key is be UNRELENTING from now to the primaries.

  • Gary

    with such a small sample size, the margin of error must be at least 10%. That puts Paul and Giuliani in a “statistical dead heat”. It also means the poll is garbage.

  • NH

    I wouldn’t be so sure about the NH voters…after all, they screwed up last time and now they are paying dearly for it with a huge increase in taxes and lost freedoms thanks to Democrat control.

    Also Paul had his surge in the way of $$$ believe me.

    I would not base his support on 196 voters! He has double the YouTube subscribers than OBAMA has. They’ve never called me…except about Newt and I told him to stay out. LOL

  • NH

    OH by the way there is a list of videos to show people on this blog:


    You can also sign up with Zogby and Polling Point

  • Rob

    196 participants? That’s statistically meaningless, making it a total waste of time.

  • Mark

    I am an independent that will be registering Republican for the first time in my life only so that I can vote for Paul in the primaries in my state. And there are millions more like me. People who have not YET registered Republican (just to vote for Paul) will not be called in the GOP polls. The neo-cons should be prepared to watch their hijacking of the GOP be reversed in the next year.

  • http://MIForRonPaul.com MI For Ron Paul

    This memorial day, please pass out fliers to everyone you can. Congressman Paul is a veteran, a patriot, and someone who REALLY cares about the blood that’s being spilled in the name of nation-building. He’s truly committed to building more VA hospitals and caring for our nation’s veterans, more so that the current regime. Just look how our war heroes have been treated since returning from Iraq and it should be clear that the agenda in Washington is terribly wrong. By the way, 3 weeks ago I hadn’t heard of Congressman Paul. Since then I’ve put in 70+ hours a week as one of his army of “un-official” campaign managers. I’m not a “young internet geek” as so many Paul supporters are portrayed by the national media to be. It’s exciting to the Congressman Paul can engage the youth of our country – they seem to think he’s pretty cool for being an older guy. I myself am married to the same woman 15 years with 6 young children, run my own business, and am 46 years old. I’m conservative in my views, and support Congressman Paul for his courageous stand against GOVERNMENT GONE WILD. Go Ron Paul – Americans who listened to what you stand for (Gay, Straight, Christian, Atheists, Black, White, Young, Old, Conservative, Liberal, male, female, and from all walks of life) support your message of uniting America against our one true enemy – OUR OWN CURRENT GOVERNMENT!

  • Jeff

    No poll is worth anything unless you can see exactly how the questions were asked. For all you know he wasn’t even mentioned by the pollsters.

  • Tony

    Mainstream polls are worthless because there are two powerful groups that do not want Paul to win: Democrats, because they realize Paul is the only GOP candidate that can beat the Democrat candidate; and Neo-cons who fear that Paul will take away their power.

    That is why when the primaries roll around everyone needs to request a paper ballot and each and every polling place in this country needs to have a Ron Paul supporter on hand to witness the vote count.

  • joshua

    What the polls are not counting are liberty minded democrats like myself who will be registering republican for the first time. I live in new york city. I was able to hand out about 50 flyers tonight. I had great conversations with a lot of navy people on leave and also left wingers. I think the support is there regardless of party affiliation. Just keep pushing forward, the internet moves at a much more rapid pace than the general public. Some people who know his name smirk at me but most (80%) are open minded.

  • Ken H


    You actually thought that Ron Paul is running for president and that we are supporting him because he can win the GOP nomination?

    That would be nice if it happens, but I wanted to see Ron Paul run for exactly what happened in the last debate – to show that the other GOP candidates(as well as all of the Democrat candidates) are political pygmies.

  • Randy

    Who IS Ron Paul? They still need to know.
    NOBODY explains Ron Paul
    BETTER than Ron Paul himself!

    Here is an interactive audio archive of
    Ron Paul speeches and interviews in chronological
    order. Worth a look!


  • http://paul4prez.blogspot.com Doug

    The poll numbers are disappointing, but not surprising. Most people haven’t yet heard of Ron Paul. His performance in both debates is helping to change that, but only 1-2% of the population watched them.

    The national polls of registered Republicans are missing much of his true support, though. If they start by asking “Are you a registered Republican?” or “Did you vote in the last Republican primary?” they are leaving out a lot of people who are enthusiastic enough about Ron Paul to switch their registration (from Democratic, or independent, or Libertarian), or to vote in a primary for the first time. Some polls even start with a list of people who voted in the last Republican primary, and there will be a lot of new voters in 2008.

  • http://paul4prez.blogspot.com Doug

    Ron Paul will also benefit from the low turnout typical in primary elections. If only 20% of the electorate turns out overall, and 20% of the supporters of the other candidates, then Ron Paul’s supporters could count 5 times as much by getting 100% turnout.

    In a race with 3 or 4 major candidates, 25% could be enough to win. For Ron Paul to have a realistic chance, he only needs to get to 5-10% in the polls. Let’s help make that happen.

  • Jose Ortiz

    Why do we keep relying on unscientific landline telephone polls.

    I do not own a landline telephone, nor do any of my peers (almost all of whom support Ron Paul). I am in my mid-20s.

  • Jim Pappas

    I am voting for him and I am a conservative Republican. The other Republican and Democratic candidates are saying the same old thing and have no spine. Ron Paul is America’s last period.

  • dbassam

    Im registering in my state to vote for Dr. Paul. He is America’s best hope.

  • Kelly O

    I registered Republican so that I can vote for Ron Paul in the primaries.

  • http://autism-prevention.blogspot.com/ Les

    I am 100% behind Ron Paul and I have only voted for one Republican in my life. He is the only great candidate from either party running for President. His candidacy is very important for America.

  • http://MIForRonPaul.com MI For Ron Paul

    The American people (sans fair press coverage from most of the mainstream media) see that and are voicing their support clearly on the net. Congressman Paul, in 7 days has gone from 4,136 YOU TUBE subscribers to over 11, 465 – a net GAIN of 7329 NEW SUBSCRIBERS. His gain alone is more than twice all of Hillary’s current subscribers, and five times more than Rudy’s current subscribers. In fact, the only thing going up faster than Congressman Paul’s YOUTUBE numbers is the price of gas!
    YOU TUBE SUBSCRIBERS (AS OF 5/19/07 at 9:50 AM)
    Obama – 5,639, Paul – 4,136
    YOU TUBE SUBSCRIBERS (AS OF 5/20/07 at 10:12 AM)
    Paul – 5,679 – net gain of 1543 subscribers in just a little bit over 24 hours and now the one to chase!
    Obama – 5,678 – net gain of 39 new subscribers.
    YOU TUBE SUBSCRIBERS (AS OF 5/21/07 at 6:01 PM)
    Paul – 8,000 – net gain of 2321 subscribers in 32 hours – widening the gap!
    Obama – 5,749 – net gain of 71 new subscribers – word’s out he’s slipped to 2nd.
    YOU TUBE SUBSCRIBERS (AS OF 5/26/07 at 3:12 AM)
    Paul – 11.465 – net gain of 3465 subscribers in 4 ½ days. Wow! Not bad for a guy being censored by the media.
    Obama – 5,830 – net gain of 81 new subscribers
    Thanks to Saul Anuzis from MI and our buddy Rudy, and the grace of God, this nation’s going to get to hear some more from Dr. Paul. Oh, don’t miss Ron VS Rudy, Tuesday, June 5th. at 7 PM on CNN. This could go down in history as the best debate EVER!

  • Jon Mangin

    Your analysis is completely fallacious because it does not disclose the fact that Ron Paul’s name is NOT READ in these polls. Furthermore, these polls include people who have not even declared candidacy or even set up exploratory committees. The only time Ron Paul will ‘show up’ in such a poll is if someone tells the poll taker that ‘I don’t like your choices, I support Ron Paul.’

    One must also consider that Ron Paul presently has enormous support from younger voters, many Democracts and Independents- groups that do not show up in a poll sample. Ron Paul is surging and many pessimists are going to be rather surprised in a short while. After a few weeks of even limited national exposure, he will have to be listed in polls and his fundraising potential will increase.

  • Brian R.

    Well..if you like Ron Paul..put your money where your mouth is. $20 or $50 is not that much to ask. Its easy to donate online now. I am sick of the media trying to chose our candidates and spewing their “opinion” during interviews. Media’s job is to shutup and report..not spin. CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS, Fox, they are all trash now. I really hope that someone launches an online media outlet with some financial backing.

  • tom

    Put your money where your mouth is. If he cannot finance a campaign there is little possibility of winning. The address for mail in (they did’nt take Discover) RON PAUL, 837 West Plantation Dr., Clute, Texas 77531 I am 60 years old, a grandfather, contractor, Eagle scout, pilot, Marine veteran of vietnam and fed up with PARTY POLITICS. All I see is swagger and posturing from little men with big egos. I have not seen a real man in the White House yet. THIS IS MY CHANCE. Tom

  • Andrew Link

    As I lifelong democrat I think I have have just lost my mind. I have just switched to the Republican Party, intend to vote in the primaries, and contributed to Ron Paul’s campaign fund. I have never done any of this before and I am in my 50s!

  • Chris

    I live in one of the most Republican counties in the country (Hamilton County Indiana) and you can be sure I will be voting for Dr. Paul in our primary.

  • ghamal

    196 participants?? You call that a poll?

  • http://thelibertypapers joseph Dicarlo

    It is hard to imagine that anything in this country can ever be done outside the realm of polls. Why? and where do these polls come from ?
    Has anyone in this forum ever been polled on the street or anywhere else for that matter? I know i have never been 53 and getting older. Personally i believe that polls are skewed more often than not. The polling entities are not organization that in the practice of their craft reflect the entire spectrum of the population at least not the politically informed. From my own experience i find that in casual conversation with friends aquaintances and first encounters with people who are willing to discuss their views about anything in genaral regarding the conditions of our nation :the net result is always the same .Only a minority is supportive of the same politicos who have nothing new to bring to the people in the way of leadreship . This leaves one to ponder the following .Either the polls are designed to perpetuate the agenda of whomever is funding them or the Populus is completely disconnected from reality. Polls are designed to unite the unthinking into a group that by defintion can be called a heard.Be whatever animal connotation it could be called it shows only one result . If People find safety in numbers like a unit in a heard of many they do so because for themselves they take no stand,whatever happens in politics thereby affecting their lives as a result of the joining such heards does excuse them from not having listened to their common sense (unless so disposessed) citing “oh well a lot of other people like me fell for it ” . Polls do not mean anything to thinking people who can agree by common sense and interst that given the electorate choices they are eventually voting for some politician who is so far and away removed from what the people need . America is broke, outsourcing employs people to do work in other nations , we have a dieing manufacturing industry base. The middle class is nearly defunct .
    When one sees middle age people like me working at macdonalds or burger king the evidence is clear. I urge people to vote for the candidate that makes sense , forget the 400 dollar haircut or the chicken in every pot or we are doing everything we can to protect America`s interests .
    Outside foreign policy , there exists the development of manufacturing , energy being the prime mover. Synthetic fuels derived from coal were developed by the Geramans during ww2 more than sixty years ago.WE KNOW HOW THEY DID IT.
    IMAGINE THAT???!! the issue of energy costs as relates to how our economy operates should not be an issue at all .. But for us americans proven technology is still a mistery or myth.The new forms of them …remain always fifteen years into the future and far to expensive to implement now. We Have amongst other nations the largest most varied types of coal deposits on the globe,it can be made to burn clean and efficiently.
    But energy is only one issue ,,pick any ..For us Americans much too much is more complicated that ought to be . I have been in the fuel energy business my entire working career ;yes it costs less to use the barely refined extracts like natural gas and crude oil.. but taken into context fuel synthetization is not that much more expensive,,,and by the time the techonlogy of wind ,tidal, fuel cell,and magnetic flux power generation becomes available which will be
    the current energy costs will be impoverishing , unaffordable is too light a connotation .Politics politics ,,,the nation is doing fine. But personal debts outside mortgages, for many americans means that even buying coffee is now matter of using a credit card
    I am impressed, is any one esle?

    Vote for common sense candidates not businessmen or women . Vote for real leader .

  • http://arrivaltel.com David Bradshaw

    We will be sending out a Pro Ron Paul in all of our bills next month. If only we had more Voip subscribers.

    Go Ron!

  • Ray Harmon


    Supporting a presidential candidate just on the basis of him being “electable” is a questionable yard stick to use in our current political process.

    I don’t subscribe to treating our latest wars or political campaigns as sporting events with throngs of empty headed cheer leaders on each side.

    After all, Rudy’s non-substantive interruption during the last debate had the political hacks near sexual climax, it’s all a game after all to them.

    We have enough sickening pundits to do that job already. Real people need to vote with their convictions. Being right, being ethical, being honorable isn’t always popular and, yes, the good guys often do finish last. But not all the time.
    “I think it’s time we stop, children, what’s that sound
    Everybody look what’s going down
    There’s battle lines being drawn
    Nobody’s right if everybody’s wrong
    Young people speaking their minds
    Getting so much resistance from behind”

  • Jeff Seiffert

    Wow Kevin,

    You’re willingly ignorant if you continue to put your head in the sand about what the voters of this country actually want.

    That is freedom; Freedom from the government and its increasingly police-state type tactics; Freedom from unnecessary wars and conflict. Freedom from being manipulated by a small ruling elite who couldn’t care less if we have a decent standard of living as long as their corporate bottom lines aren’t threatened.

    I gave up on the Republicans when they refused to stick to what they kept yelling about before an election, but then reversed course and gave us all more of the same when they got in office. The Republican Leadership is all a bunch of frauds. The evidence is public and easy to find if you just try. But there are so many people who are emotionally attached to their rose-colored glasses and their cool-aid.

    The intellectually honest among us, who don’t care about who’s right and who’s wrong but rather what is right and what is wrong can’t help but see what is happening right before our eyes under the watch of people who are supposedly conservative and have sworn an oath to the Constitution, a document that Bush has practically destroyed by illegal legislation and personal edict (executive order).

    I used to be in the leadership of my state’s Young Republicans because I believed that the Republicans were just up against it in the Left vs. Right paradigm that they try to sell everyone. But on the inside it is a different story. The leadership even at the lowest levels don’t really do anything about the issues, all they care about is power.

    Any moron can point the finger and claim it is someone else’s fault when people bring up problems in the government and society. But the obvious answer of explaining positions and policy to persuade people about what is true and what is false, acting on those truths and ending the policies that are destructive even if the consequences were unintended is what never happens.

    Finally someone in politics has the record to back up his arguments and is willing to do the things necessary to bring our country back under the control of the people and the cool-aid drinkers can’t think of anything to do but spray the crowd with their tainted crap.

    Get off the drug of party politics and realize you’re an American first. Stop being intellectually lazy and realize there is a massive body of evidence against your heroes in the GOP which proves they are disingenuous at best and more likely just power-hungry liars.

  • Ted


    I am not registered as a republican. I have considered registering to vote for Paul in the primaries, though.

    However, I know several Democrats who say that while they like some of the things Ron Paul said, they would not change parties to make sure he gets elected. They tell me they would not even vote for him as an independent. “It’s just wasting your vote not to vote for a Democrat or Republican,” to quote two.

    I have some Indy friends who say the same thing. They say if Paul ran as an Indy, they would vote for him.

    Most of my friends are republicans, though. And none of them plan to vote for Paul. First, he is a fringe. They tell me they plan to throw their weight behind someone a bit closer to the top, whom they can stand, even if they do not perfectly like. So far, among my friends, the consensus seems to be McCain, because Guliani is pretty hated.

    I am located in NE Texas… you can probably guess the city, as it’s the big one there.

    My name is Ted, and I approve this message…
    ‘Cause I wrote it.

  • http://www.ronpaul2008.com ronpaul supporter

    There is only ONE poll that matters and that is when WE THE PEOPLE elect Dr. Paul………make no mistake, WE are taking OUR Country BACK!

  • coolscorpion

    For all who do not understand this. Ms. Clinton will have the the same bed{global elite}fellows as Bill. Rudy G. is bought and paid for by the global elite.
    One vote does not count, is just plain chicken bleep. Nows is the time to ralley around Ron Paul,at grass route level. If it not already to late to stop this 4th reich regime. If he loses, then so does the republic as we knew it; and so do we. Mark my word!!! Oh thank you Fraud{fox}News for hoodwinking AMERICA!!

  • LadyKofNYC

    I’m a lifelong liberal NYC Democrat. I’ll be registering as a Republican so that I can vote for Ron Paul in the primaries. If he gets the nomination, I’ll be voting for him in the general elections. If he doesn’t get the nomination, I’m writing his name in.

    It’s all about Ron Paul in 2008!!!!

  • Nancy

    To those who think Ron Paul is “fringe”, well then, you must think our Founding Fathers were also. Congressman Paul votes with the Constitution 100% of the time. It’s amazing to me to see some Republicans call him out for being out of step with the “party”. That in fact speaks much more to how far the “party” has fallen, than it does to Dr. Paul. Ron has always consistently espoused traditional conservative principles of limited constitutional government, personal privacy, personal responsibility, fiscal responsibility in government, a strong national defense and individual liberty. It is the Republican party that changed THEIR tune to support the same big government BS that they used to rail against.

    I have followed this great man, Ron Paul, for more than 20 years and my respect for him has only grown. He has more integrity, honesty and courage than anyone I can think of in D.C.

    It’s time to reclaim OUR government and OUR country. Let’s join together and get out there and get this statesman elected.

  • http://eeng.net Juan

    Ron Paul waking neighbors on both sides of fence


  • walt

    Hey polls are meanless, we used to elect candidates after long debates about issues.

    Do you think for yourself?

  • Rob

    It’s funny how almost ANYTIME an attempt at diminishing Ron Paul’s meteoric popularity is met with comments in full support of Ron Paul….VERY few negative ones. It’s not hard to see now that the press is in full scale lie mode and in a PANIC at this dark horse who speaks the truth.

  • Ted


    Yes… by todays standards, and with parties of today, the founding fathers would be considered fringe. That’s the whole point. We would not need so much of a change if the founding principles the country had not become fringe ideals.

    For example, the CEO of MADD recently was quoted (I paraphrase, though) of saying that we’d have less drunk driving fatalities if defense attorneys were less concerned about clients constitutional rights, and more concerned with the victims.

    Considering the support that comment has received from some people, it does identify a scary trend.

    Also, Nancy, this is not the first time a party has fallen off of the track in what it believes. Parties do change with time. Do a bit of research on how the parties evolved through the years, and you will see some startling changes in them, and long before recent years.

    So yes, even though I like Ron Paul, I consider him fringe. I consider my own thoughts fringe as well, for now.

  • Pingback: freedomsadvocate.com » In the News...5/26/2007()

  • Kari

    I didn’t even know who Ron Paul was before the FOX debate (and I’m a political junkie). NOW, I can’t stop talking or thinking about him. He just needs a little time. He has more youtube subscribers than any candidate 12,000+ vs. 2nd place Obama under 7k. Much of the support has just been since the debates.


    America’s waking up. Ron Paul says that the USSR was a serious threat and this prez has us scared of villagers in 3rd world countries.

    How is that worth $2 billion a week when Bush leaves the border wide open, folks??? WAKE UP PEOPLE!!! We worry more about the border in Iraq than in our own coutry. Where’s the real continental threat? No more…you can’t piss on us and tell us it’s raining. It’s our money.

    And to all of you pro-war people out there who are under 30…I hope you are over there serving and not sitting behind a computer talking crap. You should be serving if you think it’s such a great cause.

  • curiousgeorge

    Has anyone ever seriously considered the repercussions of Ron Paul winning any of the early republican primaries? I doubt he would live to the next one. Definite assassination target. Anyone who thinks the neo-cons will give back the Republican Party is sadly mistaken. Ron Paul is a good man, and for his sake it might be better if he is ignored. Principled people have no place in Washington. Our country is already lost, accept it and find a niche in the powers that be.

  • Gloria

    A poll of 196 voters is not a large enough sample to be accurate. 1,000 voters is a better sample.

  • http://www.myspace.com/kylejsanders Kyle Sanders from Oregon

    Ron Paul is shaking up not just Americans, but people around the world. He is making headlines in China, Europe and South America. People hear him speak and IMMEDIATELY share and support his views. I have been registered as an Independent and as a Democrat, but I am registering as a Republican just to vote for RON PAUL in the primaries. I have donated $25 to his campaign, which is small, but I have never donated to ANY politician before.

    I fully support RON PAUL. If you feel the same way, spread the word EVERYDAY. Tell someone new, everyday, about how you like Ron Paul. Share his Youtube videos and post them on MySpace and blogs. The Constitution has been dwindling under the corporate-owned, political system for the past 50 years. It’s time to take it back!

  • tarran


    I read lots of news articles, and I have not found anything more than a passing reference to Ron Paul in any British, French, German or Australian news site. What international suppor the has is probably due to readers of lewrockwell.com, who are even more out of the mainstream outside the U.S. than in.

    Ron Paul is even more of an unknown overseas.

    By the way go easy on the capitalization. It makes you look unhinged.

  • Liberty

    Re: The NY Sun article about NH Independent voters:

    I was called a couple of months ago by UNH with this survey. I was asked up front, after stating that I was an Independent, who I would vote for. I stated that I hoped to be able to vote for Ron Paul. (I did say that I would probably be voting Republican in the primary). The young man giving me the survey hadn’t heard of Ron Paul, his name was not on his “list” as he hadn’t yet declared his candidacy.

    Now that Ron Paul is a nominee, I believe most of those “party crasher” Independents would vote for him over any of the Democratic nominees.

  • Teddy Bancroft

    I am a republican paleo-con who is sick of my party being hijacked by warmongering neo-cons, who pander to the religious right, grow government, and ignore the environment. I support Ron Paul wholeheartedly, and am insulted that my opinion is dismissed and marginalized in favor of mainstream bought-and-paid-for so called ‘top-tier’ candidates.