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May 30, 2007

I Got Your Ron Paul Surge Right Here!

by Brad Warbiany

This is the best news I’ve seen in a long time. In a comment to Doug’s post about Presidential candidates, Steve Dasbach brought up a site called gambling911.com, which has been laying odds on Ron Paul and has continuously lowered his odds, meaning there’s enough action behind him that people think he’s got a shot. He’s down to 15:1 (which isn’t bad in a 10-man field where he’s not one of the big 3).

But I’m not necessarily ready to trust gambling911, a site I’d not heard of before today. So I decided to check out intrade.com, a prediction market. A few weeks ago, Ron Paul was trading at a 0.7 share, which is miniscule. I started watching as we headed through the debates, and didn’t notice any change. But after seeing Steve’s comment, I checked it out today.

Ron Paul’s trading at 1.8-1.9ish right now. Again, that number isn’t that high, but that number is high enough to be 5th of the 10-man field (of declared candidates). And he’s trending up.

You wanted a Ron Paul surge? Well, one is starting. I personally think he’s far enough outside the mainstream he won’t get the nomination, but the added publicity will do wonders for changing the nature of the debate, and just might mean the end of Rudy, which is nice. Considering I’m planning on voting for Ron Paul, I’m happy to see it, too.

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34 Comments

  1. Brad,

    If he makes it to the Virginia primary, I’ll vote for Ron myself……

    But I can’t believe that these gambling sites are really an accurate measure of how the race will turn out.

    Poll after poll after poll after….well, you get the idea.

    Ron Paul hasn’t registered over 3% in any scientific poll I’ve seen.

    I refuse to pin my hopes on a wasted cause.

    Comment by Doug Mataconis — May 30, 2007 @ 11:04 pm
  2. Doug,

    Polls are easily manipulated. When there is real money at stake though people pay attention. Don’t bet against the odd makers. They’ve been doing this for too long to lose money.

    Comment by No Way — May 30, 2007 @ 11:25 pm
  3. Doug,

    I’m in agreement with No Way… I tend to trust prediction markets a little more than polls, as people have real money on the line.

    That being said, intrade still has Ron Paul trading below 2 (tend to roughly mean 2%, but the numbers at this level don’t translate too well to percentage). I’m not saying he’s become the favorite, I’m saying there is upward movement. There is a surge.

    Comment by Brad Warbiany — May 30, 2007 @ 11:30 pm
  4. I saw him poll at 4% for New Hampshire recently.

    The only wasted energy is going around posting on blogs about how “Ron Paul cannot be elected, so I won’t waste my time”. Unless you work for one of his opponents of course (which I suspect some of his negative “supporters” do)

    Seriously, whatever you do, take that energy and apply it somewhere positively, whether it be for Ron Paul or simply in your own personal life.

    Comment by Brian — May 30, 2007 @ 11:32 pm
  5. No Way,

    I’ve got a Poli Sci degree.

    I know how polls work.

    And I know when to be skeptical.

    And, still, I know that Ron Paul hasn’t got a snowball’s chance in hell of being the Republican nominee.

    Comment by Doug Mataconis — May 30, 2007 @ 11:32 pm
  6. It’s views like the sheep in the comment above that scare the hell out of me. The “I wont vote unless I know he will win mentality” is sickening and rather pathetic. The comment by Doug Mataconis is an example of a lemming. I’ve seen so many posts on the net that start out with a sad disclaimer “I know he can’t win” but I like Ron Paul.
    This is your government, stand up for your convictions.

    Comment by Brandon — May 30, 2007 @ 11:34 pm
  7. If Ron Paul does not win, there won’t be any real reason to discuss politics for a long, long time.

    Why? Because you’re just going to get another politician who looks shiny and new, but really is just the same old sack of sh*t in a different costume.

    Comment by Justin — May 30, 2007 @ 11:42 pm
  8. Brandon,

    This isn’t my government, this is a group of thugs that I’m trying to vote defensively against in order to make them stop bothering me. Ron Paul is hopefully a means to that end.

    But you missed one of Doug’s statements. He intends to vote for Ron Paul when the primaries come around, if Paul is still in the race. I’m in California, and I’m going to register Republican instead of Libertarian in order to vote for Ron Paul in the primaries. I do vote my convictions, and I wouldn’t do something like register Republican if I didn’t have someone in the party to vote for. That doesn’t mean I have any confidence he can win.

    Comment by Brad Warbiany — May 30, 2007 @ 11:45 pm
  9. Let’s have a little faith, take a leap and all vote for Dr. Paul. This may be the oppportunity to turn this ship around: We just have to crank the wheel together.

    Comment by Donald Ekhoff — May 30, 2007 @ 11:45 pm
  10. Confidence can bleed on to others.
    I to have switched parties from Libertarian to Republican. The first primaries are still way away,
    and seeing the sudden increase in support for Ron Paul inspires me to no end.
    I am elated at the numbers of people I’ve been able to join the cause. Within only a few days he has risen in the ranks of the other nine puppets.
    That gives me hope.
    I suppose this is the comment that got to me,

    “Ron Paul hasn’t registered over 3% in any scientific poll I’ve seen.

    I refuse to pin my hopes on a wasted cause”

    I apologize if I misunderstood.

    Comment by Brandon — May 31, 2007 @ 12:01 am
  11. [...] I Got Your Ron Paul Surge Right Here! Liberty Papers – Elk Grove,CA,USA In a comment to Doug’s post about Presidential candidates, Steve Dasbach brought up a site called gambling911.com, which has been laying odds on Ron Paul … See all stories on this topic [...]

    Pingback by freedomsadvocate.com » In the News...5/31/2007 — May 31, 2007 @ 12:06 am
  12. What you people who claim to know so much about polls fail to realize, is that MANY people who used to be registered republicans are no longer registered,therefore they dont show up in phone polls who only call registered republicans at the time. but many will reregister to vote for Ron Paul. I remember back in 1980 when Ronald Reagan was in a very similar situation. We were all told “Reagan doesnt stand a snowballs chance in hell” yet he won because many republicans were tired of the way the republican party had changed from its roots. They say Ron Paul isnt mainstream enough. What does that mean exactly? Does it mean that roughly the 28% percent of people who still support bush are the “mainstream”? If that is the case, then Paul should do very well with disgruntled republicans and independants who used to call themselves republicans. Not to mention middle of the road democrats who will register republican to vote for Paul. Thats exactly what got Reagan elected in 1980 hence the term “Reagan democrats”

    I think too many of you look at the numbers as simply math, and fail to see whats happening in this country right now. Whats happening now is a whole lot of people who are sick of politics as usual, and see someone like Ron Paul as someone who speaks truth to power, and is not concerned about his parties “base”……. which many people on both sides of the political fence appreciate a great deal.

    Comment by Mike Quick — May 31, 2007 @ 12:13 am
  13. Doug,

    But I can’t believe that these gambling sites are really an accurate measure of how the race will turn out.

    The gambling sites follow the polls and the momentum. While it is true that Ron Paul hasn’t moved much, if it all, in the polls; he’s getting more publicity and therefore (possibly) the beginnings of momentum. I agree with you that it won’t be enough.

    Brad is probably stretching a bit and grasping at straws; but he maybe on to something.

    I’m saying this as someone who isn’t voting for Ron Paul when the primaries come to Louisiana.

    Comment by Kevin — May 31, 2007 @ 12:19 am
  14. Seriously, If not Ron Paul, WHO??? One of these spoon-fed media hyped ASSHOLES???? Aren’t you TIRED of being a slave???? I am and my vote wont have an Obama on it, or a Hillary or a Romney or any of these other establishment WHORES. Vote Ron Paul or die a slave and a coward.

    Comment by Change — May 31, 2007 @ 1:11 am
  15. Change,

    Good job on making a rational point without coming off as unhinged. The all caps just help your argument.

    Seriously, If not Ron Paul, WHO???

    Someone who is not unhinged like Ron Paul. There’s no one that I like, I simply won’t vote.

    Comment by Kevin — May 31, 2007 @ 1:48 am
  16. There is a serious debate @ gopstrawpolls on this very issue, is the support real or not. I advise you to all join in, and be rational.

    Ron Paul will win! Just have confidence and be active!

    Comment by Zach Warren(TN) — May 31, 2007 @ 2:09 am
  17. for all the poly scy experts out there…on the subject of polls….”DEWEY BEATS TRUMAN”…nuff said.

    Comment by jojo — May 31, 2007 @ 3:13 am
  18. The support for Paul is real. It’s just still small at this point.

    The online measures that Ron Paul is doing so well in all measure intensity of support. Paul is building a base of support that is willing to do more than just say “yes, I’m probably voting for this person”.

    It will take time for that support to become large enough to start registering in scientific polls. If Paul’s online support continues to grow, and if people are putting their money where their keyboards are, the polls will eventually show the surge. Time will tell.

    Steve Dasbach

    Comment by Steve Dasbach — May 31, 2007 @ 5:20 am
  19. I’ll vote for Ron Paul no matter what. It’ll be thrilled if he can be in Ohio ballot. Do you know if we need to swith party in OHIO to vote in primary?

    Comment by Luu Bao Nguyen — May 31, 2007 @ 7:18 am
  20. I think Ron has the potential to rise up in the polls pretty quickly. One of the reasons he isn’t polling well in scientific polls is the simple fact that 98% of voters never heard of him or his positions. If he can get to the point where he is in the mainstream news every night his numbers could rise. I would wager the increase in his odds is due to the fact he is getting a lot of support among the people who are actively monitoring the race right now. Who here had heard of Howard Dean long before the last presidential primaries? If you did you would of said he had no chance to win. Now I can’t stand Dean, but he came very close to pulling it off.

    Comment by Sean — May 31, 2007 @ 7:43 am
  21. [...] Brad Warbiani has some news that is thrice as nice: [...]

    Pingback by I’m Betting on Ron Paul : Hear ItFrom.Us — May 31, 2007 @ 7:53 am
  22. For those who say that Ron Paul verly registers in the polls, I suggest you take a look at this sight.
    http://wiki.ronpaulpresshub.com/index.php?title=Main_Page

    Here you can clearly see that Ron Paul registers very well and in fact has won and/or is leading in most polls. The June 5th debate could swing in more favor for Ron Paul if he is attacked. Ron Paul handles the toughest questions with honest answers regardless of who gets burned and I feel this is what’s fueling his campaign.

    Comment by Mark Ellis — May 31, 2007 @ 8:11 am
  23. Who IS Ron Paul? They still need to know!!
    NOBODY explains Ron Paul
    BETTER than Ron Paul himself!

    Here is an interactive audio archive of
    Ron Paul speeches and interviews as a resource in chronological
    order.

    http://www.ronpaulaudio.com

    Comment by goldenequity — May 31, 2007 @ 8:46 am
  24. Polls, polls, polls. I don’t think the Online polls prove anything except that Ron Paul has a bunch of gung ho supporteres.

    I don’t think the scientific polls prove anything except that Ron Paul is not a household name…YET!

    He’s gonna be on The Daily Show in a few days, followed by The Colbert Report a week or so afterwards.

    He will certainly be rising in the polls soon enough. The question is whether he’ll win or not, and I’m not a fortune teller.

    I know I’ll vote for him or I wont vote if I can’t vote for him. I know I’m REALLY pissed that I didn’t make a bet of $500 when his odds were 200 to 1. Now they’re down to 15 to 1. Grrr… If he wins I’ll be so mad because I ALMOST made that bet but didn’t hae the guts to go through with it.

    I could have made a cool 100 grand. It’s making me sick thinking about it. If I’d only had a little more faith a few weeks ago.

    … :(

    I’m very disappointed in myself. I still hope he wins, but if he does I’ll be rejoicing while kicking myself in the nuts.

    -Chad

    Comment by chad — May 31, 2007 @ 8:49 am
  25. “If Ron Paul does not win, there won’t be any real reason to discuss politics for a long, long time.

    Why? Because you’re just going to get another politician who looks shiny and new, but really is just the same old sack of sh*t in a different costume.”

    This is so true.

    Vote for Ron Paul people. Quit with the “he doesn’t have a snowball’s chance…” stuff, and do your part to make certain that he DOES have a chance! This is our country’s future that’s on the line. Make it happen!

    Comment by Paul — May 31, 2007 @ 9:05 am
  26. I liked the website that turned the “snowball’s chance” analogy around and made you picture a snowball rolling down a hill, gaining momentum and mass until…it starts crushing all the other candidates like lost skiiers…

    Well it was sort of like that.

    -Chchch

    Comment by chad — May 31, 2007 @ 9:22 am
  27. See also:
    Ron Paul Wiki – The definitive source for all news and sites related to Ron Paul!
    http://ronpaul.wetpaint.com/

    Comment by Alex Hammer — May 31, 2007 @ 10:09 am
  28. Gambling911.com does not set odds they just report them. The oddsmaker is Sportsbook.com, which has been around far longer than Intrade and is probably 20 times the size of intrade.

    There are plenty of articles over the past years showing how well betting trends and odds can accurately predict political elections more so than polls so this really is good news for Ron Paul supporters IMO.

    Comment by Horace G. — May 31, 2007 @ 10:58 am
  29. There is a significant difference between the two prediction markets when it comes to bets on Ron Paul, which may explain why their odds vary considerably. The current price at InTrade signifies that buyers think Paul has at least a 2% chance of becoming the Republican nominee. The 15 to 1 odds listed by Gambling911 means that they believe Paul has about 7% chance of becoming the next president. This disparity might be explained by that Paul has the option of running as an independent or third party.

    Comment by Terje — May 31, 2007 @ 12:29 pm
  30. I have never been so excited about a politician before. I’m still young and have only been around for the last couple of elections, but already grew tired of the parties fighting with each other even their bosses are the same corporate entities.

    I changed my political affiliation to libertarian after the last election when I realized that voting for the lesser of two evils is still evil. Then this election came along and Dr. Paul has lit a spark in a very wide range of supporters.

    There is one thing you “he doesn’t stand a chance” people fail to realize. Dr. Paul doesn’t cater to specific groups, he caters to liberty, and thats something that everyone (no matter the affiliation) can believe in.

    Comment by Danny — May 31, 2007 @ 3:15 pm
  31. I support Ron Paul. I’m actually going out this weekend to talk to people. I’ve never done this before, but this seems right. It is worth it, just to try once.

    Everyone who comments on the articles are doing me a favor. The support I read feeds me to go out there. Hopefully others are feeling it to.

    Comment by Matt — May 31, 2007 @ 6:40 pm
  32. Someone who is not unhinged like Ron Paul. There’s no one that I like, I simply won’t vote.

    So let me ask you something then, Kevin. Do you consider the Founding Fathers to have been “unhinged”? Were Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, Benjamin Franklin, etc., just a bunch of crackpots?

    Calling Ron Paul “unhinged” makes you sound like just another statist shill, trying to dampen the momentum building for Dr. Paul.

    Comment by Rob — June 1, 2007 @ 6:35 am
  33. One thing that’s different in this election than any other in the history of our country is the internet, where information is disseminated nearly instantly. Also, when we look at a ‘scientific’ poll, I think it’s important to define ‘scientific’. If you’re talking about a polling company that’s calling registered republicans from a sample of 500 or so people, and very few of them have watched the last two debates, and Ron Paul is being labeled a loser before he even gets out of the gate…I think the bottom line is that there are way too many factors that are not being taken into consideration for anyone to call this thing yet. Let’s not forget that the American people really haven’t had a chance to weigh in yet, and Ron Paul is really just getting started. And finally, Ron Paul is the ONLY candidate that’s creating such passion in his supporters. I didn’t know about him 3 weeks ago, but am doing ALL that I can to see him not only win the nomination, but the presidency also. An important point to consider – if he doesn’t win, we can likely kiss the free election process good-bye for the rest of time (unless we’re talking about the election of the next king and queen of the north american union.

    Comment by MIForRonPaul — June 2, 2007 @ 3:22 pm
  34. Ron Paul is going to win the election, I guarentee it.

    Comment by Joe Namath — June 5, 2007 @ 10:33 am

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