Thoughts, essays, and writings on Liberty. Written by the heirs of Patrick Henry.

“A society that gets rid of all its troublemakers goes downhill.”     Robert A. Heinlein

June 19, 2007

Bad News For Ron Paul

by Doug Mataconis

Notwithstanding weeks of media attention he otherwise would not have gotten and an undeniable base of support online, it doesn’t appear that Ron Paul is moving forward in the race for the Republican nomination.

Here’s the summary. Fred Thompson, who hasn’t even declared his candidacy, leads Rudy Giuliani 28% to 27%. Romney and McCain are tied at 10%. Mike Huckabee and Sam Brownback get 2% each.

As for the rest:

The combined total for five other candidates in the race is just under 3%. Those candidates are Congressman Ron Paul, Congressman Tom Tancredo, former Governor Tommy Thompson, Congressman Duncan Hunter, and former Governor Jim Gilmore. Eighteen percent (18%) say they’re not sure how they will vote.

And, as for the statistical accuracy of the poll itself:

The current survey is based upon national telephone interviews with 618 Likely Republican Primary Voters conducted June 11-14, 2007. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. The Rasmussen Reports sample includes not only Republicans, but also independents who say they are likely to vote in a Republican Primary.

In other words, it’s bad news all around.

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53 Comments

  1. Actually, I would put much more stock in his fund raising numbers that will come out at the end of this quarter than I would any poll numbers right now.

    For Paul to truly have any legitimate shot, it unfortunately, requires that the Iraq War still be raging in full escalated mode into next year. If that’s the case, I think he would have a legitimate shot to take New Hampshire. He would have to use that as a “sling shot” to carry momentum into the other states, but he would need organization and that takes money…and lots of it.

    And let’s be honest, Paul is going to need some serious democrat crossover.

    Paul is a longshot and it’s going to require a perfect storm of sorts.

    Comment by Kaligula — June 19, 2007 @ 10:09 pm
  2. Really, bad news? I don’t think so, yet. These polls can only contact the out-of-touch grannies with land lines. We’ve got a long long way to go before the primaries or election. Heck, even grannies like Ron Paul when they know his platform – despite the mainstream media’s blackout. If we don’t elect Ron Paul then that IS bad news, also the end of the USA, and the beginning of the totalitarian North American Union. Papers please? Excuse me, papers please?

    Comment by glen — June 19, 2007 @ 10:09 pm
  3. This is just another landline poll. Most young people use mobiles, which are not contacted. Paul’s overwhelming internet dominance will trickle down to the older, the less informed, the ambivalent, until supporting him is deemed acceptable. Only Paul supporters demonstrate passionate commitment to their candidate of choice. Such commitment is infectious. Paul will surprise many with a much higher primary vote than the conventional polls currently acknowledge.

    Comment by Marlow — June 19, 2007 @ 10:16 pm
  4. Yet we shall fight on–i don’t have a land line–i know that.

    Comment by Aaron — June 19, 2007 @ 10:17 pm
  5. I’ve heard the landline vs. mobile argument before.

    And, quite honestly, I don’t believe it.

    In the end, the scientific polls end up being closer to what the election returns actually are than any other measure.

    And, yes, it is too early to call this poll anything but preliminary, but if Ron Paul can’t break out of the single digits after all the coverage he’s gotten, I unfortunately don’t think he has a chance.

    Comment by Doug Mataconis — June 19, 2007 @ 10:18 pm
  6. just my thoughts: Im not sure how this is bad news. are these land line polls or cell phones. if its land lines I dont think its a very representative population to poll form since most people have cell phones. also consider the internet polls about 25k people voted on msnbc and other sites and more than 60 % of the votes said paul won the debates….I dont know if that translates to votes but I dont know if the phone polls do either.

    Comment by jason — June 19, 2007 @ 10:22 pm
  7. Ron Paul isn’t even included in the poll’s your referencing. So obviously he wouldn’t appear. The massive lack of attention towards Dr. Paul in my opinion shows just how much the top tier candidates are afraid of his ideas being heard.

    Comment by andrew — June 19, 2007 @ 10:26 pm
  8. I think the polls are messed with to reflect the desired result. Then the votes are messed with to match the polls.

    Comment by John — June 19, 2007 @ 10:34 pm
  9. Ron Paul has done slightly better in other recent polls:

    Cook Political Report, 6/15-17, 2 percent
    Gallup, 6/11-14, 2 percent
    NBC News, 6/8-11, 2 percent
    Fox News, 6/5-6, 2 percent

    Still not where we would like him to be, but probably double his “scientific” poll support from before the debates, with lots of time to move up.

    With 25% of Republicans against the war, and more joining them every day, Ron Paul’s upside as the only anti-war Republican candidate certainly makes him a viable contender.

    Comment by Doug — June 19, 2007 @ 10:35 pm
  10. There are also a lot of Republicans who like Ron Paul, but aren’t yet supporting him because they think he’s a longshot. Solid second quarter fundraising numbers, an active grassroots base, and rising poll numbers could create a bandwagon effect in the months ahead.

    And I think Ron Paul only needs to hit 10 percent in the polls to have a chance to win the nomination. Why? Because primary turnout is usually around 20 percent, but Ron Paul supporters will turn out 100 percent.

    Comment by Doug — June 19, 2007 @ 10:37 pm
  11. Yep thanks Andrew, I checked – Ron Paul wasn’t even an option in these polls. This is an obvious ploy to get the headline “Bad News For Ron Paul” in the top news results. Unfortunately I’m helping by reading this stupid no-substance article. Anything, including hit pieces, with Ron Paul in the title is getting MASSIVE hits right now. Good luck, Doug. I hope your check from the CFR clears.

    Comment by glen — June 19, 2007 @ 10:40 pm
  12. By ‘Doug’ I meant Mr. Maticonis (the bad doug). :)

    Comment by glen — June 19, 2007 @ 10:42 pm
  13. ya 600 polled. Oh I believe the MSM!

    Comment by joe — June 19, 2007 @ 10:43 pm
  14. Rasmussen is usually my most trusted source for poll numbers, but I do find it funny that they haven’t yet included Dr. Paul in their polling, if for no other reason than the fact that they should want to see how much his online/TV buzz translates to real world results.

    I also find it funny that even if you like Ron Paul you’re not allowed to state what you think his chances are.

    Comment by Nick — June 19, 2007 @ 10:45 pm
  15. Glen,

    2%….

    Wow, I’m impressed.

    Not.

    Comment by Doug Mataconis — June 19, 2007 @ 10:52 pm
  16. Joe,

    Have you taken a course in political science and/or statistics and polling ?

    Comment by Doug Mataconis — June 19, 2007 @ 10:53 pm
  17. Yeah another article talking about polls that Ron Paul isn’t even listed in. This isn’t new.

    Comment by Dana — June 19, 2007 @ 10:58 pm
  18. Nick & Dana,

    Here’s the thing…

    Ron Paul was included in this latest Rasmussen poll.

    And here are the results for all to see.

    Comment by Doug Mataconis — June 19, 2007 @ 11:00 pm
  19. The Liberty Papers contributors are libertarian or classical liberal. Most, if not all, are supportive of Paul or at least sympathetic to him. If you check Doug M.’s blog history, you will see he has written several positive Paul articles.

    He’s just telling it like it is at this moment. Ron Paul is running at 2% in the National Polls. It isn’t because landline polling is not accurate or that Paul is being excluded from the Polls.

    However, I still say, at this early point, money is more important than polling when it comes to Paul. The dynamics of this race will shift in October if the war is not being drawn down.

    Comment by Kaligula — June 19, 2007 @ 11:04 pm
  20. Sorry, Mr. Maticonis. I guess it is ‘Bad news all around’ (as usual). What were we thinking? Crap. I’m going fishing. I give up.

    Comment by glen — June 19, 2007 @ 11:09 pm
  21. This just goes to show that voter fraud dosen’t just occur in the Voting Booth. I just registered republican. I’ve also been able to share Ron’s ideals with 3 others who are also registering. They in turn have 2 more people now registering. We will see just how reliable your polling results are. Be prepared to welcome a massive segment to your republican party.

    Comment by Jon — June 19, 2007 @ 11:13 pm
  22. The website pollster.com tracks poll results and trends for all announced, potential, and former candidates, nationally and by state. There is a graph for each candidate and a trend percentage.

    I started recording the trend value this month, and from the graphs I can estimate for some of the candidates where they were several months ago. I plugged the data into Excel, plotted trendlines, and extrapolated to the beginning of January.

    If current trends continue, Fred Thompson will have a clear lead over the field at 34%. Giuliani and McCain have been trending steadily down since March — the trendline shows Giuliani at 12-13% and McCain around 7%. Romney has been gaining all year — the trendline puts him tied with Giuliani at 12-13%. Huckabee and Paul are both trending upward since the debates — the trendline puts Huckabee just under McCain at 5-6% and Paul (who is gaining at a faster rate) tied with Giuliani and Romney at 12-13%. Everyone else is showing no real movement.

    Of course, these trends won’t continue – things always change during a campaign. However, Paul’s national support is definitely moving in the right direction.

    Comment by Steve Dasbach — June 19, 2007 @ 11:54 pm
  23. Thomas Sowell used to say, “Like most people, I’ve never spoken to a pollster.”

    Comment by Jim Ostrowski — June 19, 2007 @ 11:54 pm
  24. I disagree with those who say the landline phenomenon is a diversionary tactic.

    I am a middle class professional, and we have 3 cell phones and VoIP at home. Web-savvy folks and general techies – not a rarity and precisely the audience that is driving the revolution – are grossly underrepresented in a poll that excludes cell and non-landlines. It would be akin to taking a survey of the best phone service alternatives but polling only landline subscribers. Do you think that VoIP and cell phone use might skew downward in the resulting statistics relative to their actual prevalence? VoIP in particular would almost certainly only register a statistical blip (>1%) in spite of the fact that nearly 10% of households are using VoIP of some sort. Given that the web-savvy are more likely to use VoIP, would it be logically consistent to then discount the interest in VoIP as an internet phenomenon without a real world constituency?

    The answer should be self-evident.

    http://www.ronpaultalk.com

    Comment by mty — June 20, 2007 @ 12:56 am
  25. I think the landline phenomenon is discounted because most politically active bloggers seem to be older. That’s not true of this particular group blog (several members in their twenties, IIRC), but it seems to be in general.

    Also, I’d say that seeing as younger voters are known for low turnout, that adds to the rationale behind discounting them.

    If younger voter turnout is higher this election cycle, we could expect that to change.

    More speculation than anything but decent enough read:
    http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/articles/ron-paul-natural-boost.html

    Comment by Nick — June 20, 2007 @ 1:19 am
  26. Gosh……..Polls, Polls, Polls,

    If we already know the outcome why are people spending millions of dollars to run? Is it all show? Maybe Zogby already knows the vote totals too!!!

    Comment by Flo — June 20, 2007 @ 1:44 am
  27. Not again. Why doesn’t this site spend more time talking negative about the other candidates rather than the one candidate with whom they’d most like to see in office?

    Seems every few days the various commentators here espouse their opinion on how they really like Ron Paul but he’s just plain hopeless and will never win.

    Now let’s address (again) a couple things:

    1) We already know that Paul has a hard fight in front of him to win. You’re not proving you’re smarter than everyone else by repeating this over and over again.

    2) If you like the candidate then write positive articles about his candidacy. There are enough articles out there poo-pooing his chances already so what you’re saying really isn’t very insightful.

    3) Polls can and are manipulated in so many ways that many of them are close to worthless. Remember the headline “Dewey beats Truman!” when Truman won? I wonder what the polls were saying then.

    So stop being a wet blanket on this issue. Either say something positive about the candidate or focus your negativity on the other dimwits running and leave Paul alone.

    Sigh. This is why I left the Libertarian party years ago. It’s run by a bunch of engineers who never agree on anything unless it is 100% in their vision of perfect. This is why that party never gets anything done. Libertarians never learn one of the most important lessons in life: The enemy of a good plan is the search for the perfect plan.

    Comment by Not again... — June 20, 2007 @ 2:30 am
  28. Polls are not really interesting until the public starts paying attention. Just look at polls from previous years. If history teaches us anything about polls, then it is that everything changes when the public interest starts, until then it’s just name recognition.

    The sad thing is when people let polls change their vote. Essentially, letting a polling company decide the vote is exceedingly unfortunate.

    Comment by Holly — June 20, 2007 @ 3:51 am
  29. …they hate us for our FREEDOM!

    Comment by Rudy G — June 20, 2007 @ 7:50 am
  30. I am a young Ron Paul voter.

    I stopped using a landline in 2003.

    Comment by Alex Banick — June 20, 2007 @ 8:35 am
  31. Holly is right. The polls at this point are based on name recognition. I would like to see a poll of people that are actually paying attention right now. Most of the other people will not know who Ron Paul even is.

    Comment by Sean — June 20, 2007 @ 9:11 am
  32. the revolution is here

    utter disdain for the govt and big media is at an all time high and rising daily…i have diehard Dems in my family that are going to vote PAUL because i educated them

    the polls tell the story, but not these polls…the Govt Approval polls

    http://www.pollingreport.com/index.html

    NBC/Wall Street Journal

    BUSH 6/8-11/07 APP 29 DIS 66
    CONGRESS 6/8-11/07 APP 23 DIS 64
    COUNTRYS DIRECTION Right 19 Wrong 68
    Iraq War APP 28 DIS 68

    the people are pissed…nearly TWO THIRDS of America has had it with the lies

    all it will take for Dr. Paul to win is for ONE big network to crack under the revolution’s pressure and the floodgates will open

    its going to happen…when we make it happen

    double and triple your efforts my friends

    .

    Comment by koby — June 20, 2007 @ 9:15 am
  33. Yeah, it’s silly to call this “bad news.” The past couple months have shown me that when RP supporters get stirred up, stuff gets DONE. So I am sure that the recent exclusion will provide yet another spike in support growth, activity, and upward movement. Polls are stupid. Who cares anyway, we win all the online polls of 20k+ and they say we’re spamming, then we lose some lame phone polls of 600- and they say he has no chance. WHISKEY TANGO FOXTROT, OVER.

    Comment by bret — June 20, 2007 @ 9:23 am
  34. No one is looking at the election, yet. In the words of one person “Why do you care? It isn’t until next year.” But once people from any party hear about Congressman Ron Paul they instantly want to vote for him. I have never been in a room with so many different people. It really is amazing.
    Ron Paul will be the NEXT President of the United States!

    Comment by Proud American — June 20, 2007 @ 9:39 am
  35. Among all the Ron Paul supporters on the internet, how many people have actually received a phone call from the Poll surveyors I wonder?

    Comment by Stuflecknoe — June 20, 2007 @ 10:19 am
  36. Rudy Giuliani or Vampire?

    Comment by alec — June 20, 2007 @ 10:41 am
  37. Guys, guys. I like Ron Paul and all that (I am a bigger supporter of Huckabee) but I really can’t see Ron Paul measuring up to all the hype about him on the internet. I’ve seen a lot of manufactured ‘astroturf’ crazes in my life and this one has all the hallmarks of one. I seriously doubt Ron Paul has anything going for him save a small but extremely dedicated core of internet supporters — which have made his name national. Very long shot (much longer even than Huckabee) for the nomination. For the national election, I think he has the best shot of all the Republicans, because the Democrats won’t be able to criticize him over being a Bushie and a boo-yah by-jingo blow-up-Muslims interventionist.

    But I need to see two things before I’ll think Ron Paul has any chance at all. Show me your second quarter donation numbers, when you get them. Show me donation numbers that are at least a quarter of any of the top three. Then finish in the top two in the Ames straw poll. If you can do those two things — why, we don’t have a manufactured craze after all. For now, though, I remain supportive but skeptical.

    God bless.

    Comment by Timothy — June 20, 2007 @ 11:58 am
  38. Among all the Ron Paul supporters on the internet, how many people have actually received a phone call from the Poll surveyors I wonder?

    I did. Honestly, I got one last week from the Quinnipiac polling institute. I am certain I got the call because I have a land line.

    I will say that that I thought the poll was fairly conducted.

    Ron Paul has zero name recognition, however. None.

    Comment by David T — June 20, 2007 @ 12:14 pm
  39. Let it be known when the day comes that people of this country will choose either freedom or totalitarianism. If its bad news for Ron Paul the choice has already been made for the latter?(I hope not,I pray) People need to understand this choice of the latter is unacceptable and more importantly is to stop listening to these so called polls and vote with your intelligence,heart,and the cold hard facts of the candidate. Too many people vote the way the polls tell’em to vote or vote the party ticket or tv or radio or print. Truly stand and be counted as an individual not as a crowd follower.

    Comment by Free — June 20, 2007 @ 2:01 pm
  40. Polls, smolls. I got my three Ron Paul t-shirts and one bumper sticker today. I have never put a bumper sticker on my car, I have never worn a political t-shirt, and I have never contributed to a political campaign. Until now.

    But how this is related . . . I have yet to see anyone else with a Fred Thompson, Mit Romney, etc. bumper sticker. There is no passion for any of the Big Media supported GOP candidates. It ain’t over until it is over.

    Comment by ww — June 20, 2007 @ 2:21 pm
  41. OH PLEASE!!
    Get this … “618″ likely voters in the WHOLE NATION.
    I would pay more attention to the amount he has raised from average people already, that is a better indicator this early in the race.

    Another important factor is that the people being polled have been registered and voting for years. Most of these folks are prety set in their ways. ALL polls so far only poll these people.

    THEY DO NOT POLL THE MULTITUDES OF PEOPLE THAT ARE REGISTERING AND VOTING FOR THE FIRST TIME SIMPLY BECAUSE OF RON PAUL.
    If these polls included “new” registrations the results would be quite different.

    Comment by Pumaman1 — June 20, 2007 @ 2:43 pm
  42. The lack of support for Ron Paul in the polls shows most people are dumb as rocks who rather support candidates who will exploit them through miltary- industrial expansion and then send their kids off to war.

    So go ahead elect another nutbag crook to office and ye shall reap what ye sow.

    Comment by Joe — June 20, 2007 @ 3:02 pm
  43. People can argue all they want about Ron Paul winning or losing. I will vote for Ron Paul no matter what anyone says. People should find a candidate they like and then vote for that candidate. Enough with all the speculation and twisting peoples arms. No one is gonna change their mind. Adolph Hitler could run for president and there would still be idiots who would vote for him. I just pray that people do some actual research before they vote and hopefully they will realize that Ron Paul is the best choice. If not, then America will continue it’s downward spiral and I will have to move to a country that is a lesser evil.

    Comment by Mike — June 20, 2007 @ 3:14 pm
  44. Why do so many discredit Ron Paul supporters as imaginary or spammers?
    Do I not exist? Are the people I’ve met through Ron Paul Meetup part of a hallucinatory fantasy? When we carried RP banners and paraded from the Colbert Report to Times Square was I experiencing a solipsistic daydream?
    The attempt to silence Ron Paul’s truth reminds me of my young niece who used to think everyone left the room when she covered her eyes. Just because you choose not to listen, does not make the truth go away.
    I think, therefore I am. I think, therefore I vote for Ron Paul.

    Comment by Alan — June 20, 2007 @ 4:49 pm
  45. As a Christian Conservative I will be voting for Ron Paul, along with Constitutionalists, Libertarians, Republicans, and Independents.

    I’ve even heard of Democrats registering Republican to get a chance to vote for Ron Paul.

    I have a feeling the controlled bought and paid for mainstream “tabloid” media is lying to us.

    The only poll that is going to matter is the one in Nov. of 2008.

    Put to death the “elitist unlawful beast” of a government we have now, saving and restoring the Constitutional Republic and rule of law at the same time. It’s a two for one deal.

    Vote Ron Paul 2008.

    Comment by Davy C Rockett — June 20, 2007 @ 5:08 pm
  46. “It does not take a majority to prevail … but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men.” – Samuel Adams

    Comment by Ryan J. Rabalais — June 20, 2007 @ 7:36 pm
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    Comment by Alan — June 20, 2007 @ 8:28 pm
  48. I voted for Ross Perot, Pat Buchanan and Ralph Nader. Next year I am voting for Ron Paul.

    Comment by Al in TX — June 20, 2007 @ 9:34 pm
  49. Doug Mataconis,

    The Revolution will not be televised…but you can find it online.

    GOOGLE

    “Ron Paul” 3.7 million hits

    more than any other Republican candidate!

    Your polls mean nothing, Mataconis

    For our 2% has passion, knowledge, and a love of the Constitution!

    Unstoppable.

    Comment by Zydeco — June 21, 2007 @ 2:16 am
  50. Don’t let the bastards grind you down. Only persistence is omnipotent. If a poll were taken as to who is the current President, 25% would not answer correctly.

    Comment by ron stratton — June 21, 2007 @ 3:20 pm
  51. These United States are a long, long way from beginning the ascendancy back to the constitutional limits on the federal Leviathan and limited government.

    I’m simply enjoying watching Ron Paul and his campaign give headaches to the likes of Rudy Giuliani.

    To read bloggers such as Doug Mataconis state that there is bad news in low poll numbers is rather amazing. What did you expect?

    Comment by Ken H — June 21, 2007 @ 7:18 pm
  52. Ron Paul will win the nomination and the presidency. By a landslide.

    Comment by Rick — June 22, 2007 @ 5:00 am
  53. [...] online, Thompson is leading the polls.  He is even ahead of political unexploded shell Giulliani (The Liberty Papers): Here’s the summary. Fred Thompson, who hasn’t even declared his candidacy, leads Rudy [...]

    Pingback by Thompson Will Win the Republican Nod in 2008 « Fitness for the Occasion — June 23, 2007 @ 4:18 pm

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