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July 12, 2007

Ron Paul Not A Factor In Latest Gallup Poll

by Doug Mataconis

The latest Gallup Poll is out, and while it shows Fred Thompson slipping into second place behind Giuliani, the news is not so good for Ron Paul:

Giuliani continues to be the top choice of Republicans for his party’s 2008 presidential nomination, with Fred Thompson following next, John McCain in third, and Mitt Romney in fourth. The percentage of support for these candidates varies little depending on whether reluctant candidate Newt Gingrich — who is supported by only 6% of Republicans — is included in the race. None of the remaining Republican candidates score higher than 3% in the poll.

Here are the numbers:

Candidate With Gingrich In Without Gingrich In
Rudy Giuliani 30 % 32 %
Fred Thompson 20 % 21 %
John McCain 16 % 16 %
Mitt Romney 9 % 9 %
Newt Gingrich 6 % n/a
Duncan Hunter 2 % 3 %
Mike Huckabee 2 % 2 %
Tom Tancredo 2 % 2 %
Chuck Hagel 1 % 1 %
Sam Brownback 1 % 1 %
Jim Gilmore > 0.5 % > 0.5%
Ron Paul > 0.5 % > 0.5%
No Opinion 9 % 10 %
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22 Comments

  1. This new release should bring Rudy’s numbers down a bit

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vaCYEEO-58I

    Comment by Amy — July 12, 2007 @ 3:09 pm
  2. Om emminder vardhaye shteriyame ma emam vishmek virsham kirinu tawan

    Comment by Mantra — July 12, 2007 @ 9:54 pm
  3. This makes perfect sense. This early hardly anyone is paying attention. It is all about name recognition and people don’t yet hear about Dr. Paul on MSM. Give him time, which is actually what he has a lot of right now. We are only in July of 2007. His message, once it is heard, sells itself.

    Actually once people start paying more attention they will find out that the current leaders in the polls are a bunch of boofoons. My guess is that Dr. Paul and Huckabee start moving up in the polls as people hear more about them. Guiliani and Thompson will move down as more people start paying attention. McCain is likely history, but he might be stubborn enough to stay in the race, which would help Dr. Paul as the pro-Iraq war vote is splintered. Romney will likely stay about where he is at and never gain any real traction. The other candidates will start bowing out as none of them gain any traction. If Gingrich enters the race he will only splinter the pro-Iraq war vote even more, giving Dr. Paul an even better chance of winning.

    What will work to Dr. Paul’s advantage is if 5 to 6 candidates split the pro-Iraq war vote and he takes most of the people who believe we should get out of Iraq. He could possibly get 20-25% of the republican primary votes and that could very well be enough to win the nomination. I think you will see an influx of new republican voters, either ones who haven’t been voting much in the past or new to the party voting for the sole purpose of voting for Ron Paul. These type of people are not likely being called upon for these polls. If they called me they would never get through. While I have a land line I also have caller ID and I don’t answer calls from out of the area unless I am pretty sure I know who it is. I am pretty sure I am not the only one who does this.

    Comment by TerryP — July 12, 2007 @ 10:09 pm
  4. Sorry Terry, but in my opinion, Ron Paul won’t even get close to your prediction of 20 – 25%. I’m expecting 5% or less when the primaries come around. Unfortunately, today’s conservatives only talk about the Constitution when it suits them politically. Nobody talks about what the Constitution actually says about education (nothing), stem cell research (nothing), subsidizing corporations (nothing), the nanny state (nothing), and countless other issues. You know the republic is in a sad state when those who claim to follow the constitution won’t let a guy like Ron Paul talk about following the constitution or talk about taking the advice of the founders. Unfortunately, both liberals and conservatives throw away our founding laws and principles when it suits them.

    Comment by Adam — July 13, 2007 @ 1:09 am
  5. Adam

    I didn’t predict that he would get 20-25% of the vote, but I do think that it is possible to get that much if everything falls into place as I described above.

    Comment by TerryP — July 13, 2007 @ 9:23 am
  6. I think he can easily exceed 5% at the primaries.. Most people do not vote in the primaries– Per USA Today , 2004 presidential primary turnout was 7.2%; 11.4% dems and 6.6% rep. I will make a bold statement in that 3rd party voters more than likely have a higher showing–more politically active. New polls indicates that 32.9% of voters consider themselves independent.

    Ron Paul supporters know the uphill battle to crack the corruption and I predict will be out in huge force. Note that Generation Y is approx. 75 million.

    My personal observations are that right now RP supporters are the ones talking (not just on the net). The mainstream two party thinkers still think it’s too early to think about.

    Comment by Amy — July 13, 2007 @ 11:27 am
  7. This poll is a boldface lie. If the MSM and gov. put their puppets out in front, they will gather more support, because the sheeple don’t want to get behind losers. As primaries/elections near, many who support less popular candidates will chose one of the two front-runners and jump ship. Ron Paul ranks #1 in other, non-controlled opinion polls you can find online.

    Comment by Cristan — July 13, 2007 @ 12:51 pm
  8. This poll is a boldface lie. If the MSM and gov. put their puppets out in front, they will gather more support, because the sheeple don’t want to get behind losers. As primaries/elections near, many who support less popular candidates will chose one of the two front-runners and jump ship. Ron Paul ranks #1 in other, non-controlled opinion polls you can find online.

    I AGREE WITH THIS 100% My generation is big and loud…just watch what we can do if we like what we see and feel like we can make a differance…here we come!

    Comment by Jess — July 13, 2007 @ 1:37 pm
  9. When I look at Foxnews, or CNN or MSN, and the most recent thing they have posted about Dr. Paul, is dated May 17th; I KNOW that they are doing every thing they can to submarine him.

    The fact that he single handedly out drew all the rest of the GOP candidates combined in Iowa, after they excluded him, SHOULD have made headlines, but they don’t dare talk about that.
    The only coverage that Ron Paul will get from the MSM will be negative.

    Ron Paul is the only candidate in this race that has any real respect for the Constitution, and the only candidate that is anything other than a tyrant wanabe.

    Ron Paul is the thinking mans candidate. Unfortunately the PTB have spent the last 40 years making sure that most Americans would rather be slaves than think.

    Comment by Dennis — July 13, 2007 @ 2:31 pm
  10. Let me ask you fine folks… How many times have you been contacted by Gallup for your opinion regarding ANYTHING? I as one have YET to be contacted by the so called Scientific poll. Considering that gallup calls random people on their land lines excludes an entire generation of folks who are cell phone based… (if they contact anyone) like myself who haven’t used a standard telephone for 10 years! When I worked in Radio sales, I used (and quite often manipulated) arbitron numbers which is very similar in their methods to gain a sample of public opinion…
    Their sample revolves around the logic that one person represents x number of people…

    Comment by Tony — July 13, 2007 @ 2:48 pm
  11. Tony,

    Given the fact that the population of the United States is 300,000,000 the fact that you have not been personally contacted by a polling organization is statistically meaningless.

    Comment by Doug Mataconis — July 13, 2007 @ 2:50 pm
  12. The last thing they want is a popular candidate because it’s the Dems’ turn now, hence, Julie-Annie.
    I used to work for a Gallup subsidiary, let me tell you, it’s a barrel of laughs when the bosses all get together in the conference room for hours, “interpreting” the results…I mean, everything is computerized, you get the results, the real results, at the touch of a button, why the hell do you need a three-way conference call for?
    And to say we lowly employees would fill in the forms ourselves to meet quotas…how reliable is that do you think?

    Comment by Yoshikawa — July 13, 2007 @ 3:00 pm
  13. Ron Paul is the thinking mans candidate.

    Governor Adlai Stevenson was speaking at a function while campaigning for the 1956 election. A supporter called out from the crowd, “Governor Stevenson, every thinking man in the country is voting for you!”

    “That’s not enough,” replied Stevenson, “we need a majority.”

    Comment by Joshua Holmes — July 13, 2007 @ 4:11 pm
  14. Ron Paul is kicking Rudy’s butt. Compare their web traffic on Alexa.com. Gallop is full of it, thats why I don’t read their polls anymore.

    Comment by John P. — July 13, 2007 @ 11:23 pm
  15. Frankly, folks, I see in Ron Paul more integrity, honesty, and good common sense than I’ve seen in the rest of Republican candidates combined. He’s a very welcome breath of fresh air in a cesspool of corruption we call Washington.

    I’m sorry Gallup fans, but I think this poll’s bogus, because it just doesn’t fit the real world where I live. I love to talk politics, and I talk with everyone I can get to stand still about the upcoming presidential election. And I’m finding that the people who are actually paying the issue any attention are extremely interested in Ron Paul.

    I’m also having a great deal of difficulty correlating this poll to others I’ve seen, for example, the first Republican debate, where one major poll reported that Ron Paul outstripped Guiliani by 60 to 15 percent or so, if I remember off the top of my head correctly.

    I realize statistics won’t correlate perfectly from poll to poll, there’s always a deviation, but one poll at 60% and another at less than 1%???

    Looks to me like Big Money would love to see Ron Paul disappear, do you suppose they think that by having their media and pollsters just ignore him he’ll just disappear?

    I pray the internet won’t let that happen!!

    Comment by Howard Weaver — July 14, 2007 @ 12:16 am
  16. Even over here in Australia a lot of us are hoping Ron Paul wins the US Presidency.

    We’ve had a gutsfull of our Prime Minister being the neocons lapdog.

    Any and all good changes espoused by Ron Paul will directly affect many countries to their benefit.

    Just love to see the look on our politicians faces when the truth of our federal reserve system comes to light in being a privately owned institution.

    Ron Paul 2008 has 44637 friends on My Space ATM.Come over and be his friend as I have asked many of my Aussie mates to do the same.

    Comment by Oneder — July 14, 2007 @ 12:54 am
  17. We just did away with electronic voting in my labor union. The management friendly incumbents were routed by 2 to 1. Now I am wondering if they actually won the ‘electronic election’ that preceeded this one?
    Rigging an election or polls is nothing new. Our CIA does it quite often. How do we know this one is rigged. They’re all pro-war, pro war on (fraudelent terror, save Paul. One would have thought that Gallup would at least try to sound believable. Pretty disgraceful.
    SD

    Comment by Steve Dudley — July 14, 2007 @ 1:03 am
  18. Complete C O N -Trol.

    Total bullshit…. same old same old :)

    Comment by Dave — July 14, 2007 @ 1:09 am
  19. I also don’t trust Gallup with this poll. Looks to me like they hand-picked the Republicans they phoned.

    Comment by Dr. John — July 14, 2007 @ 1:28 am
  20. What I fail to understand is that at the rate in which he is accumulating Meetup folks (i’ve seen upward of 3000 in 1 week), how can his national numbers not be rising. His fundraising has gone up 4-fold, and certainly his meetup participation is 4x what Obamas is. Over 20,000 in the US and this number is increasing by the hundreds daily.

    Given this discrepancy, I’m going to assume that the MoE is coming into play here, and that traditional polls are just not going to do Paul justice.

    Comment by Mike — July 14, 2007 @ 2:16 am
  21. Doug, my point isn’t the fact that I have not been contacted but that NO ONE I KNOW has been… Again I point to the fact that MOST people I know are cell phone based… An internet poll IMHO is more factual than some cryptic poll to which no oversight is applied… When neocons don’t like the approval numbers applied to this administration it is simply waved off as fuzzy math and that polls are not legitimate… Why should anyone pay any attention to Gallup unless the numbers reflect their agenda.

    Comment by Tony — July 14, 2007 @ 9:29 am
  22. The July 17th Gallup shows him at 3%. Remember, MoE is 4 or 5%. So he could be at 0% or as high as 8%.

    Comment by Mike — July 17, 2007 @ 6:46 pm

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