The neo-cons jumped on the McCain bandwagon and when he faltered they quickly switched to Giuliani . Now that Rudy’s on the slide, they’re all jumping on the Thompson bandwagon. How long will that last? Thompson at least doesn’t have all the liberal baggage that Giuliani and McCain had, but he’s still a staunch supporter of the Iraq War and that will do him in down the road.

Romney’s just slippery enough to survive. Already he’s beginning to suggest that if Bush doesn’t come up with an exit strategy for Iraq pretty soon, he’ll come up with his own. Could he be feeling Ron Paul’s footsteps in Iowa?

The Republican race is wide open which doesn’t mean that Ron Paul will win it, but it does mean that it’s anybody’s guess who will.

The Iowa Straw poll could be EXTREMELY important for that reason. Who among the second tier will do well? We could see Paul and Brownback or Paul and Huckabee emerge as significant contenders. Or maybe it will be Brownback and Huckabee and Paul will remain in the second tier. I doubt that, however, because Paul seems to have too strong a volunteer organization in Iowa, and Brownback and Huckabee don’t have much money to spend. Besides, Paul can appeal to independents and Democrats while Brownback and Huckabee are competing for the Christian fundamentalist vote.

In any case, the Iowa Straw Poll could be a moment of truth for the Paul campaign.