A Ron Paul Surprise In Iowa ?

Patrick Ruffini is predicting that Ron Paul will place second in the non-binding straw poll to be held in Ames, Iowa in August:

You heard it here first.

He leads the second tier in cash-on-hand. He was able to get 1,200 people out to the Hy-Vee (has any candidate done something that big on their own, not at an RPI event?). His home base in Texas isn’t that far of a drive, and his people are motivated enough to come in from out of state for him. And he’s making a big push on his Web site, which for all intents and purposes, is his campaign.

Romney, given his dominant position organizationally in Iowa, should still win. Even with the rest of the top tier not participating, he won’t be able to let his guard down, lest he be ambushed by one of the second tier. Should Romney underperform against someone not even playing at Ames, or against someone not taken seriously, that’s a blow to his Iowa inevitability.

A few caveats are in order. First of all, Ruffini predictions don’t have a history of accuracy, especially when it comes to Ron Paul. Back in June, he made predictions about Paul’s second quarter fundraising that proved to be wildly inflated. Second, the straw poll itself hasn’t been a good historical indication of later success; in 1987, Pat Robertson got a lot of press when he won the poll over both VP Bush and Bob Dole but it was Bob Dole who won the Iowa Caucus six months later, and Bush who won the nomination. Finally, this years poll will not be a true test of the GOP field since two of the big-name candidates, McCain and Giuliani, will be skipping it entirely.

Yes, Ron Paul will be get alot of positive press if he does well in Ames, even more so if he embarrasses Romney, but don’t take that as indication of anything. There’s still a long way to go before the first votes are cast.

  • http://rocketshipfreedom.blogspot.com Joe Schembrie

    Doing well — even winning — in the poll won’t mean that Paul has the nomination sewn up. But it certainly will diminish the ‘Ron Who?’ problem and advance us toward the main goals of winning the nomination and election.

  • SiFromEire

    Just wanted to say Ireland is backing Ron Paul. He seems to be the only man worth a vote. Its time for America to wake up and stop these “Bush” like candidates. If I could vote from Ireland I would and it would be for Ron Paul. All the others have the same values, control of the people & lack of freedoms. Our own government have sold us out to the UN even though we voted NO to UN control. Now we can’t even make laws without the UN say so. It’s NWO at its highest and thats what they want. Save America while you still can. VOTE RON PAUL 2008!!!!!!!!

  • James

    One step at a time. Though all this disregard for polls seems a little tiresome after polls keep being used to say Ron won’t win. The skeptics should make up their minds so we know which way to embaress them next. Lets see.. Televised debate polls check. Online polls check. Fundraising check. Iowa Christians Tax rally check. Next up is Ames, another check point in the road to the White House. =D It is the people who are doing this, and in 08 is the people who will decide for themselves the new President.

  • Amy

    IMO, the only way Ron Paul will make it to the November elections is if the Libertarian party nominates him in 5/2008. The current two party system and the election process is too corrupt to allow a Paul on the GOP ticket, unless it is to promote the inevitable ticket of Hillary and Barack.

    Having Hillary on the ticket should be scary enough reason for a RP-skeptic to vote for Ron Paul.

  • wayoye

    I predict a victory for Ron Paul, so does Rudy and Mccain. Thats why they are skipping it.

  • TanGeng

    I’m not going to be so confident about Ron Paul. I just love that he’s introducing so many ideas back into the debate. Of course, Rudy and John McCain are skipping it because of their chances of winning the Iowa straw poll is rather small and it is really time consuming.

    The straw poll will indicate how much progress Dr. Paul has made in reaching people. I believe that he’ll be relatively successful and far more successful than his fellow non-“top-tier” candidates.

  • George

    Regarding the gentleman from Ireland…with the growth of the internet…I’m sure you can find many ways to help…appreciated the good WORD

    RON PAUL 2008

  • james

    I am putting my money on Ron Paul for 1st. Look at the meet up groups he has! He is blowing the doors off of every one else and for us (the Ron Paul fans) this is more than an election. It is a political and idea revolution!

  • Chris

    Hello, I am from Vancouver in Canada- I know Ron Paul will win the Iowa poll, and the following one after that!!

    Go Ron Paul!

  • Kent Davis

    Vote for Ron Paul- He is the Savior of America as I am the Savior of mankind. Only he can restore the balance of the will of the people. The other Presidential Candidates are being bought-out by the Super rich who belong to the Bilderberg Group who are suppressing the American people for there own agenda for a New World Order.

  • Kent Davis

    Vote for Ron Paul- He is the Savior of America as Jesus is the Savior of mankind. Only he can restore the balance of the will of the people. The other Presidential Candidates are being bought-out by the Super rich who belong to the Bilderberg Group who are suppressing the American people for there own agenda for a New World Order.

  • Darel99

    Dear Readers:

    Have you followed other posts by Doug? They are always filed with lukewarm support for Paul even though he suggest he supports Paul. I have brought this to his attention and others with prior posts.

    Folks, don’t you think it’s time to ignore Doug’s views until he is more in line with the actual support he suggests?

    Doug even hints at faults for Barry Manilow’s support of Dr. Paul. He even undermines Paul’s success in other polls.

    Doug, simply does not understand what it means to support a candidate. If he did and if Paul is his choice he would provide positive views and expose major issues instead of a comet about false flag terror (which is a factor with most wars) or imply a negative comment about Barry Manilow’s support. Why?

    It was the main steram media who suggested that the proof would be with straw polls and implied Paul’s chances at straw polls would be far less… Yet, Paul has won three valuable straw polls not to mention a top 3 finish in two other polls. Keep in mind I’m only talking about GOP sponsored straw polls…

    In many ways Doug’s action are very similar to the MSM by this I offer his lukewarm attitude and his constant undermining theme of Paul. So what is the difference between the MSM and Doug? It appears very little for they both desire to undermine Dr. Paul and I for one am sick of both actions.

    Since Doug professes he is a true libertarian why don’t we let the market decide the future of Doug posts…. So if you agree with me folks lets send a message to Doug and tell him with our actions that we will not visit his posts until he offers a positive view of Paul…. Remember, he was the one who stated he supported Paul. So, if he does then encourage him to use his creative gifts to support Paul… If not just don’t visit his post when you get an alert.

  • http://www.thelibertypapers.org Doug Mataconis


    So you want me to drink the kool-aid and agree with you ?

    Sorry, not gonna happen.

    I like Ron Paul, I will vote for Ron Paul.

    But there is no way that the 2008 version of the Republican Party is going to nominate him. Trust me on this one.

  • Greg Martin, Marietta, GA

    I like you literary style however your logic is in question.
    GO RON PAUL! Our last hope.

  • Darel99

    Rely to Amy,

    Amy, the two party system is without a doubt corrupt but Paul was wise to chose the ticket he’s on… Why?

    For one the two party system will not and I repeat will not allow a 3rd party at any debates.

    In fact agreements were made to oppose a third party just after Ross Perot debated the parties.

    I would suggest that all the libetarins register as republican and so you can help him obtain the nomination… I know for some this will infalme a few but it’s a basic strategy that will work.. Why? Becuase is also popular with other parties as well. While the traditional polls see him rising in numbers many of the polls are based on party polls and the only accept impute from registered party members. Since he first has to obtain the nomination my simply idea would have him win the nomination…. Neither party offers limits or exclusions or grace periods so once you become a new party member they want your impute… It’s as simple as that. The best way to test this is to simply call the National Party and find out for yourself how many calls or mailings you obtain after your contact.

    Call this a stealth strategy but it will work and then once he obtains the nomination then return to the party of choice.

    You see the established optios don’t want you to know this information but when you think about and investigate the deatils as I have it will work.

    So if you are from another party and as much as yo u may hate the Rep. party it’s a move to effect real change in our nation.

    Look at it this way it’s about our nation and our children and if Paul isn’t elected to office I fear for our nation. We are facing too many issues to have another neocon or clinton in office. The only answer is Paul.

    Please consider my idea and present it to your friends who are from another party.

    Togother if we think out of the box we can get Paul in office.

  • Darel99


    What does Kool-aid have to do with me? I suppose you are not willing to look at historical facts of false flag terror… If not you can be just as ignorant as most of the public and say it doesn’t’ exist… If you deny the truth then I question your interruption of what “truth” actually means to you.

    Do you doubt the government has never staged it’s own terror attacks to make changes within our nation or abroad? I’m near completion with a citizens guide to false flag terror and I have over 30 examples and supported by government documents. My research did locate over 421 world wide of false flag terror.

    With government documents and other facts would you still consider it a kool-aid or tin foil hat issue? If so then you would deny the truth.

    Folks Doug stated ”
    I like Ron Paul, I will vote for Ron Paul.
    But there is no way that the 2008 version of the Republican Party is going to nominate him. Trust me on this one.”

    Am I the only person Doug responds too?

  • http://?? gao xia en

    I vote for less government. It’s that simple.

  • Bob

    Doug is right, Ron Paul will not be elected. Here are just some of the reasons:1)Poll numbers below the poll’s margin of error 2)Low name recognition 3)Inability to raise money like the major canidates 4)Allegedly racist writings 5)Association with the John Birch Society (which is perceived to be an extreme right wing & racist group)and 6)Association with 9/11 truthers (who are perceived to be nuts).
    In politics the strength of your arguement is often less important than the public’s perception of you.
    I support Ron Paul and I’ll vote for him. If you want to help him register as a Republican so you can vote for him and be carefull what you say or write in his support. THINK! How will Mr. & Mrs Average Joe respond? Will this help or hurt Ron Paul’s chances. I’ve seen blogs where people think they’ll helping RP may arguing that 9/11 was an inside job, I’ve also seen blogs where RP “supporters” make awlfull anti-Semitic remarks. RP loses more support than he gains with those comments.

  • Robert

    Ron Paul has generated more grassroots excitement and support than any other candidate in the race. The campaign is building on this momentum around the country, And our brave soldiers overwhelmingly support Ron Paul. They gave him more money than all the others combined!

  • Kevin Houston


    I have a question for you.

    Are you saying Paul can’t win because you think:
    that Ron Paul won’t get that many votes in the various state primaries, or because, you think that some GOP party hacks will engage in back-room mischief to ensure that it goes to someone else?

    Either way, who do you think will actually get the nomination?

  • http://www.belowthebeltway.com Doug Mataconis


    I talked more than once here about the reasons I think the odds are against him.

    For one, he doesn’t have the money needed to win a major party nomination.

    For another, he doesn’t have the name recognition.

    And, finally, as sad as it is, his message is so far removed from what most Republicans think these days that there’s just no realistic scenario under which they would nominate him.

    No, I don’t think the nomination will be “stolen”

    And, right now, I think the most likely Republican nominees would be either Giuliani or Fred Thompson. Not that it matters, because right now I think either Democratic frontrunner is likely to win the General Election in a cake walk.

  • robert haley

    I agree with Doug’s claim that Ron Paul will not win the nomination, but I disagree with the reasons he gives.

    I don’t see what’s so wrong with giving an honest assessment of the situation. And neither Doug nor I are infallible so maybe a miracle will happen and Paul will pull it off. But there are far more reasons for supporting the Ron Paul campaign than the desire to make Ron Paul President. The important point is to influence policy and if someone other than Ron Paul wins the presidency and is forced to implement some of Paul’s programs due to the popularity that has arisen from Paul’s campaign, that is a major victory.

    Even more significant would be a victory on character. If Paul gains lots of votes by refusing to pander to every whiney interest group that comes along and shows that a campaign dedicated to the long-term benefit of the nation can actually succeed over one that sells out to every special interest they can seduce, it would re-frame political debate in this country for a generation.

    I certainly hope that Ron Paul wins. I seriously doubt that it will happen. But I know that the more successful he is, even in defeat, the more he will have succeeded in changing American politics.

  • Andy

    The same polls and people that are saying Ron Paul can’t win, are the same polls and people that were saying McCain will win the nomination of the GOP. Sit back and watch the people of America regain the GOP, and install true conservative values that are sorely missing. Ron Paul will win the GOP nomination and go on to a landslide victory in ’08 that will go down in our history books as the most one sided victory with the highest turnout in American history.

  • Greg Butko

    Ron Paul would actually work to restore Constitutional Government. What a radical concept! Why waste your vote on one of those lying sacks of you know what, when you can vote for a man of integrity? It’s time to start playing by the rules. Throw out this lawless gang of thugs. Ron Paul for President.