The fact is, unlike with Ron Paul, everybody with any interest in politics knows them and their policy, specially Republicans. Therefore, whoever is supporting them would certainly have voted for them independent of their physical presence. No one would vote to someone else just because their candidate was not physically present there.

Another possible argument would be their, Giuliani, McCain, F Thompson, supporters chose not to show up because their candidate was not coming. This argument doesn’t hold much weight, because the hardcore supporters would want to come and vote for them anyway, and their popularity is supposed to be so overwhelming that even the “typical” republican activists should have wanted to vote for them whether or not candidates showed up. Remember that the vote is for who you want for president, not who of the candidates “currently present in the poll” that you want for president.

The sad fact is that the reason Giuliani and McCain have any support at all is that they are CONSTANTLY being mentioned by the media as the front runners. Thus when you conduct a random phone poll, people who are not particularly active in politics know their names and don’t know anyone else’s. But every poll, which people self-select based on their interest in the outcome, from Internet to text-message to straw poll they, Giuliani, McCain, F Thompson, come in dead last relative to R Paul. Basically, the more one knows about them the less attractive they are to the most people.

Furthermore, even if you buy the argument of being there, Iowa, to be known to get vote, the numbers show that Ron Paul spent less number of events in Iowa, 17 events, than McCain, 26 events, and Giuliani, 26 events. F Thompson is 0. (source: http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008-presidential-candidates/tracker/candidates/)

Their, Giuliani, McCain, Thompson, campaign should have had the prediction about Iowa Straw Poll based on some study and that is the real reason, why they were not there. Otherwise, they could not have the excuse of their low numbers and would be very damaging to their campaign.

As a collateral, this shows how Ron Paul support is strong and growing. It was much higher than Giuliani, McCain and F Thompson, the “front runners”. 7x Giuliani, 6.4x Thompson and 13x McCain.

We should Congratulate how Ron Paul did much better than “The Front Runners”.

Here is my review of The Ames Straw Poll:

14,320 votes were cast, a lower than expected turnout. Each voter had to pay $35 for a ballot and be an Iowa adult.

Mitt Romney is esimated to have spent $5 million to $7.5 million dollars leading up to Ames Straw Poll, only to be able to bus in 4,516 votes, an average cost of $1,250 to $1.750 per vote received!

Mitt Romney was first at 31.6% 4,516 votes of 14,320 cast.

Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee was the real winner in second place for 18.1 % of the vote, 2,587 votes.

Mike Huckabee spent $150,000, leaving just a little more than that in his thin campaign war-chest, but came out with more votes than the much larger campaign budgets of Sam Brownback and Mitt Romney.

Huckabee is the big winner at Ames. Romney came in first but he really lost because the obscene amount of money spent to get 4,516 votes is shocking and embarrassing just to “win” a non-binding, very regional test of one’s campaign support. Huckabee polled strongly despite a low key, low cost campaign.

Sam Brownback is a Senator from neighboring Kansas state, and came in third with 15.3% of the votes cast, 2,192 votes.

Brownback spent much more than Huckabee (estimated $500,000), and had lavish large pavilion tents, but three creationists (Brownback, Huckabee, Tancredo) and one Mormon are lobbying for the religious conservative vote. Brownback has Mormon Romney and Creationist Huckabee ahead of him, and a surprisingly strong showing by relative unknown Tom Tancredo just behind him. Brownback’s campaign will be challenged to put a good light on this outcome. Huckabee and Tancredo got a big boost, Brownback essentially stalled with his base.

Iowa Republicans are largely anti-abortion, pro-war, and the three Creationists at the Straw Poll polled 47% of the vote between them. With Mormon Romney added, 78% of votes went to Creationists/Mormon candidates. That shows us that Iowa Republicans probably tip the scales into “extreme social conservatives.”

Tom Tancredo received 1,961 votes for 13.7% of the votes cast. This may be the biggest surprise. Tom Tancredo has recently said that the USA should bomb Islamic holy cities if there is another terrorist attack on the USA. Tancredo’s campaign is a one note thing, he’s AGAINST illegal immigration, in a big, loud way, and this Iowa base rewarded his Creationist and anti-immigration positions.

Tom Tancredo, I want to note, has supported State’s Rights to Medical Marijuana by voting for the Hinchey-Rohrabacher Amendment each year. As a Presidential candidate, he’s an animated wild-eyed extremist with a limited menu of positions, but he’s maxing out on them in the right forum here at Ames.

With hard-core fundamentalists getting 78% of the Ames Straw Poll, how did Ron Paul do?

Coming in fifth, Ron Paul received 1,305 votes for 9.1%

In his podium speech, Paul established his Lutheran bonafides at the outset, speaking about his pro-life beliefs, his position against illegal immigration and birthright citizenship. He then moved on the Constitution, the war, the defence of liberty. Ron Paul’s supporters were very visible and loud and with alot of great signs.

Ron Paul only opened his campaign in Iowa earlier this week, and had two of his largest fundraisers in his campaign so far. Ron Paul spent $200,000 on the Ames Straw Poll, including television ads. Paul raised over $110,000 this week in Iowa. Coming in a solid fifth, Ron Paul established that he has a foothold in the race and probably will derive more momentum from the Straw Poll than anyone else but Mike Huckabee. 9% is a solid beginning in a state that is hardly the best prospect for Dr. Paul’s campaign. New Hampshire and Nevada primaries should be better. Dr. Paul got his relatively new message out in Iowa in all the mainstream media, as he was interviewed extensively. Congressman Paul spent the entire week campaigning tirelessly. Carol Paul, Dr. Paul’s wife of over 50 years, was hospitalized for exhaustion today.Ron Paul’s support visibly appeared larger as hundreds of out of state supporters trekked to Ames (smack in the middle of the Hawkeye state) to hold signs, eat Romney’s barbecue, and buttonhole other supporters, and share the vibe.

Because Ron Paul’s internet base has INTENSITY, Ron Paul’s competitive status was never at risk as his campaign is still developing its own unique momentum. Fifth was good enough.

Paul’s fifth place showing is the first sign in the voter marketplace that Ron Paul is not only an internet phenomenon, but that he can mobilize feet into voter booths. Further, Paul’s campaign demonstrated they can spend money in conventional politics and make some waves. Mainstream media coverage for Dr. Paul has soared in recent weeks.

Dr. Paul is the bottom line in the Straw Poll however. After Ron Paul’s fifth place showing, its all wreckage beyond him.

After promising to bow out if he did not come in first or second, former Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson received 1,039 votes for a 7.3% showing for a sixth place. Thompson’s bank account is empty, and Wisconsin is a neighbouring state. If he can’t do well in Iowa – and Tommy is a nice guy – he’s conceding defeat. He’ll announce his campaign is over in the next 48 hours.

The Straw Poll knocks out Thompson, who campaigned in all 109 counties. Tommy Thompson, who promised to stop raids on medical-cannabis patients if elected President, was Health Secretary for George Bush from 2000 – 2004.

Scratch #6 candidate.

Way down in votes at 7th position was stalking-horse candidate Fred Thompson, a TV actor and undistinguished one term Senator from Tennessee, with only 203 votes and 1.4% of the votes. Fred Thompson mingled in Iowa a few days this week but his 203 votes does him no favors. This is a dubious showing for a phantom candidate.

Ghouliani, as Ron Paul Revolutionaries have taken to referring to Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, received 183 votes for 1.3% of the vote. The Ghoul did not campaign or participate because these devout social conservatives would have ripped him to shreds so he didn’t run the gauntlet here. 183 votes of 14,320 cast is a poor showing. I think thats a sign that in the cornbelt and the south, Giuliani has some obstacles in this contest.

However, Fred Thompson is still testing the waters, is flush with millions in cash, and has a fan-base. Giuliani has $15 million in the bank.

US REP. Duncan Hunter, coming in ninth with 174 votes, 1.3% of those cast, did appallingly poor. Hunter is a Congressman from California’s 4th district and is a war hawk.

I have run for office numerous occasions and when I campaign in rural, farming, or small communities, I wear jeans, a clean working mans shirt, cowboy boots if I have them, and I get rid of slick, big city talk and behavior. When you campaign in the heartland, everyone is just regular folks. In resource towns and rural farming communities, no one owned a suit that I could tell. If I would have shown up in my Armani suit (which I wear for media and city appearances), I would have been treated as if I were from THE CITY or some place far away from heartland reality – and I would INSTANTLY lose any credibility with these people.

I could tell Duncan Hunter did not belong in Iowa. Slick suit everywhere he went. He obviously doesn’t hang around farmers much. He just wasn’t comfortable and he didn’t fit in. It was a crushing end to Hunter’s invisible campaign and he too will inevitably announce his withdrawl from the race later this week. Scratch #9.

John McCain in certain ways defines “walking wounded”. He looks dignified but stiff, uncomfortable, his facial skin stretched too tight over that skull. He’s broke, tearing through $13 million so far this year, with peanuts left in the bank ( perhaps only a million dollars), and his showing here shows a complete lack of connection with this kind of heartland audience. John McCain came in tenth with 101 votes. 07% of the votes cast.

This is awful for McCain. He did not officially campaign at Ames and thus did not participate in the convention-like atmosphere. He made no impact, has no supporters here, no campaign, no money. He is considered a has-been. Ames will further damage McCain’s ability to raise money.

Scratch #10 McCain. It won’t be immediately, but McCain will be out by November or December when he sees that he just won’t have the money to compete in the January – March primaries, which will require $5-$10 million minimum in the bank without bills by December 31.

A Illinois accountant named John Cox got 44 votes for .03% of the votes cast, sparing former “front-runner” McCain the extremely humilating close call of being “Dead” last at Ames.

Scratch John Cox, #11, later this summer.

Romney 31% 4516
Huckabee 18.1% 2587
Brownback 15.3% 2192
Tancredo 13.7% 1961
Paul 9.1% 1305

Geraldo has not mentioned Ron Paul ONCE.

You’ve already established how displeased you are with Ron Paul, so forget about him, eh? Me, Alex Jones, and all the rest of his supporters will be happy about that.

Buckwheat:

Sager is a neocon media-liar. He recently claimed Ron Paul wasn’t a “serious” candidate for president.

Ron Paul has as much chance of being president as I do, none.

John Howard:

In Ames, Iowa, the votes will be counted in secret using Diebold machines.

1) No Diebold machines are being used.

2) There will be representatives from each campaign watching the counting.

Cyber-Tactics, indeed!

The Internet didn’t exist in 1975. 24-hour cable news was much less important in 1991. It’s a different media era, much faster than 1975 or even 1991. Paul needs to get to his supporters now, and get his supporters working in the GOP immediately.

Given the obviously dishonest MSM treatment of Ron Paul so far…

It’s not dishonesty, just incompetence. Paul’s a fringe candidate with a message the media neither understands nor cares about.

Whatever. I’m enjoying the weekly loss of credibility and readership the MSM is suffering.