A Moment Of Hubris For Mitt Romney

Memo to Mitt Romney:

Before you celebrate your victory in the Ames Straw Poll, and the fact that you’re in the lead in Iowa itself and could very well win the caucus in January, consider this fact:

A source at the DNC reminded me of an interesting piece of history: the Iowa caucus is a great predictor who of who won’t become president. The caucus has only been the country’s first nominating event since 1972, and its record is pretty awful: George H. W. Bush in 1980, Bob Dole and Dick Gephardt in 1988, favorite son Tom Harkin in 1992, Bob Dole again in 1996, and John Kerry in 2004.

In fact, the 2000 election was the only time since 1972 that the non-incumbent victor in Iowa managed to win the presidency — and in that year, both parties’ nominees were Iowa winners.

So why are we paying so much attention to such a meaningless part of the Presidential race ?

Cross-Posted at Below The Beltway

  • Samantha

    Paying so much attention because the media has nothing better to do in August? I couldn’t agree more with your comments. Iowa means nothing in the whole picture but neither does NH as Pres Bush lost NH and went on to win the nomination.

    Have to have a Feb 5th strategy and hit the states that vote leading up to and on Feb 5th — that is the winning ticket.

    Romney doesn’t stand a chance. Not to mention that straw poll winners are who buys the most ballots and buses in people in Iowa. Note that the number of people voting was way down from 1999 which speaks volumes. When Rudy and McCain pulled out it spoke volumes about their not wasting money on a straw poll. Rudy will not waste his money to participate in straw polls. Smart campaign.