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If you have the numbers I would be curious to know what John Kerry polling at this point in 2003?

Haven’t you been paying attention? RP supporters do show up for Republican meetings and events. Heck from what the most recent state GOP straw polls have shown, there wouldn’t even have been a GOP event if it weren’t for Ron Paul supporters… would’ve been more like small pow-wows.

But, it’s easier to blame the Bilderburgs, Diebold, the media…

We had a birthday party for Ron today and people came in off the streets just to talk to Ron and many were new. The minute they hear about him, they love him…it’s no wonder the press has to stomp on news that he wins every poll in NH.

Just remember: PJB was ‘polling’ at 6% before the primary and won with 27%

“1. The polling percentage is so incredibly tiny that it’s genuine accuracy is almost nil.”

I’ll say it again. When sample sizes are n=400, you begin reducing the margin of error. This poll had 800 – n – 1000 participants, meaning that with 95% confidence they could say the numbers were within 3% of ‘actual’. In other words, if they conducted the exact same poll in the same time period, 95% of the time all of the results would be within 3% of the posted results.

Absolute sample size is critical. Sample size compared to population size is irrelevant.

“2.The fact that they do things like call only people who were registered Republicans in the prior election, misses huge portions of the population that may vote for some candidates.”

This isn’t a flaw. In fact, it’s even disclosed at the beginning of the results: “among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents”.

The pollsters surveyed those people most likely to vote Republican. It would be an utterly useless poll to ask those least likely to vote Republican on who they prefer as a Republican candidate. Who wants to know what Repulican candidate Germans would vote for? Irrelevant because they can’t vote here. Asking Republicans and Repub-leaning Indies on their preferences gives a better picture than asking Venezuelans and Democrats on the Republican they’d vote for, and I’m pretty sure you see that.

“1. The polling percentage is so incredibly tiny that it’s genuine accuracy is almost nil.”

I’ll say it again. When sample sizes are n=400, you begin reducing the margin of error. This poll had 800

Yes, I have had statistics classes (many years ago) along with classes in gathering technical stats as well.

If you know anything about polling, you will agree that the larger the sample, the more accurate the data. A poll that polls 50% of the entire voting population (impossible to implement) would be extremely accurate. A poll that polls .0000005% of voters who were registered Republicans during the prior election cycle, with or without any “massaging”, is what it is. It’s better than no poll at all, but it has at least two serious flaws. 1. The polling percentage is so incredibly tiny that it’s genuine accuracy is almost nil. 2. The fact that they do things like call only people who were registered Republicans in the prior election, misses huge portions of the population that may vote for some candidates. I fall into this category. I am registered as an Independent, but will change my registration to Republican so I can vote for Ron Paul. I have not been, nor will I be, polled for this election cycle in regards to the Republican candidates. Neither will any others who are registered as Indy, Dem, Lib, or first timers, who intend to vote for Ron Paul.

I have been politely hung up on before, for giving “undesired answers” to qualifying questions in phone polls. This has always left me wondering what they wanted me to say! LOL

You have those who see the light, those who may see the light in the future, and those who will never ever see the light.

No point wasting any time and energy on the “never evers”.

Paul, have you ever taken a statistic class? I remember solving problems in mine where I made the realization that 400 random people were enough to curtail significant margins of error. Ideally, you’d poll everyone, but you cannot conduct a census for practical reasons.

As for Doug’s ‘spin’ – noting that Ron Paul has not exceeded 3% support of voters is not spin. The word ‘ceiling’ is an apt description and it’s one I’d use. Labeling a 3% “surge” would appear strangely inconsistent with the flat line of support that has existed over several months.

As for agendas of pollsters, I’v been called several times to participate in polls. I’ve not once had a pollster terminate the call early because of my responses, some of which are actually in line with the philosophies or perspectives of many on this forum. Clearly, I will never know if my responses are included or excluded in the final results. However, the poll-taker on the other end probably deals with a series of hangups before reaching me. Unless the poller has a masochistic streak and enjoys throwing out completed polls for the sheer pleasure of more empty phone calls to disinterested parties, I suspect each result is included in the final tally.

The fact is, there is a ceiling in the polls. The much-shrunken GOP is now mainly neo-conservative, pro-war, wing of the party. There won’t be any more significant growth in those polls.

Instead of working on how best to pile on 50 comments on a blog that all say how much you love me, the best thing you can do for me is to make signs and hold them on street corners, you can raise money and awareness.

Good question. Many Americans will remain easily manipulated sheeple (give me my McDonalds, 6-pack, American Idol, tell me you’ll keep me safe, and I’ll do/think/feel pretty much whatever you want) no matter what.

Fortunately, many Americans are coming to the realization that the Emperor Has No Clothes. They realize they have been scammed, and manipulated for many years, and are standing up to the establishment.

We are seeing the unfolding of a clash between the American Sheeple, addicted to the establishment thought control, and the establishment/mainstream media, versus the Americans who have awaken or who always were awake, who refuse to continue to be manipulated.

Consider this: If Ron Paul is really the fringe, loser, freak, no-chance having, delusional, gadfly that the establishment so badly wants us to believe, why in the world are they going to such extreme lengths to marginalize/smear/blackout him? If he really is that, why not just use him for cheap entertainment until he fizzles out? They go to all sorts of trouble to remove positive posts about him on blogs, bury after-debate poll results, smear him at every turn, leave his name off of polls etc. I could go on and on. In reality the establishment is terrified of him, and what he is doing. He is uniting Americans against their oppressive, corrupt government that has gone awry.

check him out in the straw polls: http://www.freemarketnews.com/WorldNews.asp?nid=47579&fb=1

“So you’re saying that the vast majority of American’s can’t think for themselves?”

Yes, they can, they just don’t have a lot of practice in it. After all, you need to overcome the odds [government education] before you even get them to start.

“If that’s the case, how can a candidate with real ideas, like Ron Paul, ever hope to succeed?”

“It does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen to set brush fires in people’s minds.”
- Samuel Adams

Insiders will tell you that the polling business is just another sleazy racket.

The polling companies are in it to make money. And to make money, they have to supply the desired results.

And “honest” polling company would go out of business almost immediately.