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September 11, 2007

L.A. Times/Bloomberg Poll Confirms: The Same Old Guys Are Winning

by Doug Mataconis

The Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg News conducted an extensive poll of 3,211 Republicans and Democrats in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, and the results are about the same as we’ve been seeing in every other poll:

At the beginning of the autumn dash to the primaries, a new Times/Bloomberg Poll of 3,211 Democrats and Republicans in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina shows that Hillary Clinton maintains a strong lead in all three states (28%, 35% and 45%, respectively). John Edwards is a relatively close second in Iowa (23%) with Obama at 19%, tied for second at 16% with Barack Obama in New Hampshire and trailing Obama badly (27% to 7%) in South Carolina.

Bill Richardson has 10% in Iowa, 8% in New Hampshire and 1% in South Carolina. Joe Biden, Dennis Kucinich and Chris Dodd all draw 3% to 0% in the three states.

In the Republican race, Mitt Romney holds a clear lead in Iowa (28%) to Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson tied for second at 16%. Mike Huckabee comes in third at 8%, John McCain at 7%, Tom Tancredo at 3%, Ron Paul and Sam Brownback at 2% and Duncan Hunter at 1%.

Romney maintains a slimmer lead in New Hampshire, 28% to Giuliani’s 23%, while McCain has moved up to third with 12% and Thompson at 11%, two points behind Don’t Know. In South Carolina, newcomer Thompson has surged into the lead with 26% to Giuliani’s 23%, McCain’s 15% and Romney’s 9%. Huckabee has 6%. The poll was taken Sept. 6-10 with a margin of error of +/- 4 or 5%.

What’s clear from each of these polls on the Republican side is that the guys at the top are staying at the top, and Ron Paul isn’t getting above the 2-3% level that he hit over the summer.

Distressingly, it’s looking more and more like a 2008 where libertarians will have to decide between voting for the lesser of two evils, voting for an LP candidate destined to lose, or staying home.

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12 Comments

  1. That concept wouldn’t really distress you, would it Doug?

    Comment by Buckwheat — September 11, 2007 @ 10:04 pm
  2. Buckwheat,

    It bothers me alot, but as a man I admire once said….

    Facts are stubborn things.

    Comment by Doug Mataconis — September 11, 2007 @ 10:07 pm
  3. That concept wouldn’t really distress you

    Not really, no. Ron Paul is about as fit to be president as your average pot-smoking college student.

    Comment by Kevin — September 11, 2007 @ 10:16 pm
  4. Disappointing news, but not unexpected. Also remember that the primaries don’t start for a few months yet, and primary wins (or even strong finishes) raises Dr. Paul’s profile.

    The answer isn’t really difficult. Every person you can get registered to vote in the primaries is valuable. Every person you can get to the primary polls is valuable. The Ron Paul Meetups will be instrumental in this. What the RP campaign needs to do is figure out what precincts in IA, NH and SC are likely strongholds and which are tipping points. Just get the names, the Meetups can do the rest with signs and supporters.

    Comment by rho — September 11, 2007 @ 10:36 pm
  5. That’s going to change quick. Paul is just now starting to get real media attention. I also think he’s going to rake in a lot of money this period, which is going to attract the media.

    Comment by Joppo — September 12, 2007 @ 1:05 am
  6. Cheer up,

    If the same old guys get in again
    then 4 years later you won’t have this pesky
    election annoyance to distract people anymore.

    Police states don’t have that problem.

    Cheers

    Comment by TheOneLaw — September 12, 2007 @ 1:05 am
  7. Not really, no. Ron Paul is about as fit to be president as your average pot-smoking college student.

    Which would be an improvement from the below-average, coked-up frat boy that currently holds that title…

    Comment by js290 — September 12, 2007 @ 2:00 am
  8. I canvass for Paul. I’m with him until it’s settled, how else can I see it? It’s impossible for me to turn back ever, especially seeing the lack of real competition.

    Comment by FullyAlive — September 12, 2007 @ 6:42 am
  9. And btw:

    CABLE NEWS RACE
    VIEWERS, SEPT. 10, 2007

    FOXNEWS O’REILLY 2,289,000
    FNC PETRAEUS 1,451,000
    FNC SHEP SMITH 1,210,000
    FNC GRETA 1,180,000
    FNC HUME 1,156,000
    CNN DOBBS 839,000
    CNN KING 834,000
    MSNBC OLBERMANN 810,000
    CNNHN GRACE 806,000
    CNN COOPER 651,000
    CNN BLITZER 649,000
    MSNBC HARDBALL 602,000

    Comment by FullyAlive — September 12, 2007 @ 6:51 am
  10. Why do you consider Fred Thompson a “lesser of two evils”?

    He was supported in his Senate races in Tennessee by Libertarians. He’s got a lifetime NTU score of 85. That’s very close to Ron Paul and Tancredo’s Lifetime scores of 89 each respectively. One year Fred even scored 91.

    Mike Tanner of the Cato Institute has an excellent article on Thompson this morning “Could Fred Thompson be the limited government conservative we’ve all been waiting for.”

    And the very latest polls out this morning have Fred gaining on Giuliani. One poll has him just 1 point behind Giuliani nationwide.

    Libertarians will have a great choice for 2008: Fred Thompson.

    Comment by Robert Standard — September 12, 2007 @ 11:10 am
  11. Libertarians will have a great choice for 2008: Fred Thompson.

    That’s great, but who will the voting libertarians vote for?

    Comment by js290 — September 12, 2007 @ 11:46 am
  12. 3rd parties dont have a chance. I’ll make a prediction that Unity08 will have 5 or more states that they don’t get thier candidate on the ballot.

    I got pissed at Bush Sr. for not following in the steps of Regean. I then went 3rd party and got an education. Until we change eliminate the spoiler syndrome and make the dems and reps jump through the same hoops every time to get on the ballot , like they say on Sesame Street “two” is a magic number.

    Comment by Norm Nelson — September 12, 2007 @ 5:52 pm

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