L.A. Times/Bloomberg Poll Confirms: The Same Old Guys Are Winningby Doug Mataconis
The Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg News conducted an extensive poll of 3,211 Republicans and Democrats in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, and the results are about the same as we’ve been seeing in every other poll:
At the beginning of the autumn dash to the primaries, a new Times/Bloomberg Poll of 3,211 Democrats and Republicans in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina shows that Hillary Clinton maintains a strong lead in all three states (28%, 35% and 45%, respectively). John Edwards is a relatively close second in Iowa (23%) with Obama at 19%, tied for second at 16% with Barack Obama in New Hampshire and trailing Obama badly (27% to 7%) in South Carolina.
Bill Richardson has 10% in Iowa, 8% in New Hampshire and 1% in South Carolina. Joe Biden, Dennis Kucinich and Chris Dodd all draw 3% to 0% in the three states.
In the Republican race, Mitt Romney holds a clear lead in Iowa (28%) to Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson tied for second at 16%. Mike Huckabee comes in third at 8%, John McCain at 7%, Tom Tancredo at 3%, Ron Paul and Sam Brownback at 2% and Duncan Hunter at 1%.
Romney maintains a slimmer lead in New Hampshire, 28% to Giuliani’s 23%, while McCain has moved up to third with 12% and Thompson at 11%, two points behind Don’t Know. In South Carolina, newcomer Thompson has surged into the lead with 26% to Giuliani’s 23%, McCain’s 15% and Romney’s 9%. Huckabee has 6%. The poll was taken Sept. 6-10 with a margin of error of +/- 4 or 5%.
What’s clear from each of these polls on the Republican side is that the guys at the top are staying at the top, and Ron Paul isn’t getting above the 2-3% level that he hit over the summer.
Distressingly, it’s looking more and more like a 2008 where libertarians will have to decide between voting for the lesser of two evils, voting for an LP candidate destined to lose, or staying home.