Monthly Archives: September 2007

Have Republicans and Democrats Found Common Ground on the Way Forward in Iraq?

Yesterday, President Bush addressed the American people to give his assessment of both the progress and the way forward in Iraq based on General Petraeus’s report and testimony before congress. As is customary when the president gives a speech, a member of the opposing party gave a counterpoint speech. This time the Democrats selected Rhode Island, Senator Jack Reed.

As one would expect, President Bush focused on the positive developments found in the report while Senator Reed focused on the negative. You could say that they each “cherry-picked” the information to support his side (which is also normal). I also expected that Senator Reed would focus his criticisms on the Administration’s past failures in Iraq (and he did not disappoint). The only part of the speeches I was interested in, however, was the way forward. Surprisingly, I did not see much disagreement there. Senator Jack Reed did not call for an immediate withdrawal from Iraq but proposed a “rapid” troop withdrawal, a refocusing of the mission to counterterrorism and training of the Iraqi army, and improved diplomacy among rival factions.

I read over the transcripts from both speeches to see if I could find any significant differences in the way forward. You may notice that I used much more of the President’s speech than I did Senator Reed’s. The reason for this is because Senator Reed did not focus much of his speech on the way forward but instead focused on past mistakes (otherwise I would have posted more of Reed’s speech regardless if I agreed or not). While it is quite proper to criticize President Bush for his mistakes in Iraq, criticism is not the same as coming up with a useful solution. I think most Americans on both sides of the Iraq debate are more interested in solutions than platitudes. I hope that this continues not only for this particular aspect, but also focus on diplomacy and diplomatic relations with other countries.

Here is my side-by-side analysis of excerpts of President Bush’s speech and Senator Jack Reed’s speech on the way forward in Iraq:

President Bush and Senator Reed on troop reduction

President Bush:
General Petraeus believes we have now reached the point where we can maintain our security gains with fewer American forces. He has recommended that we not replace about 2,200 Marines scheduled to leave Anbar province later this month. In addition, he says it will soon be possible to bring home an Army combat brigade, for a total force reduction of 5,700 troops by Christmas.

And he expects that by July, we will be able to reduce our troop levels in Iraq from 20 combat brigades to 15.

Senator Reed:
We [Democrats] have put forth a plan to responsibly and rapidly begin a reduction of our troops.

I’m sure that President Bush and Senator Reed have differing opinions on how “rapidly” troops should be reduced. The president at least offers some specific numbers; Senator Reed keeps his statement generic so that he and other Democrats can say the troops are not being withdrawn quickly enough. If the Democrats actually do have a plan in place for troop reduction, it sure would have been more helpful if Reed had given some details about this plan in his speech. To be fair though, Senator Reed did point out that most of the troop withdrawals come from the surge and that most of the 130,000 troops would remain. Still, Reed fails to say how rapidly the Democrats want to withdraw.

President Bush and Senator Reed on counter terrorism and the training of the Iraqi army

President Bush:
According to General Petraeus and a panel chaired by retired General Jim Jones, the Iraqi army is becoming more capable, although there is still a great deal of work to be done to improve the National Police…

[…]

General Petraeus also recommends that in December, we begin transitioning to the next phase of our strategy in Iraq. As terrorists are defeated, civil society takes root, and the Iraqis assume more control over their own security, our mission in Iraq will evolve. Over time, our troops will shift from leading operations, to partnering with Iraqi forces, and eventually to overwatching those forces. As this transition in our mission takes place, our troops will focus on a more limited set of tasks, including counterterrorism operations and training, equipping, and supporting Iraqi forces…

[…]

I have consulted with the Joint Chiefs of Staff, other members of my national security team, Iraqi officials, and leaders of both parties in Congress. I have benefited from their advice, and I have accepted General Petraeus’s recommendations. I have directed General Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker to update their joint campaign plan for Iraq, so we can adjust our military and civilian resources accordingly.

Senator Reed:
That is why our [Democrat] plan focuses on counter-terrorism and training the Iraqi army.

While both President Bush and Senator Reed seem to agree that the Iraqi army needs to be trained and shift the focus of American troops to counterterrorism, Senator Reed’s mention of the Democrats’ plan could fit on a bumper sticker. If the Democrats are offering a different strategy, it would have been very beneficial for the senator to tell the American people what their strategy is.

President Bush and Senator Reed on Diplomacy

President Bush:
Now the Iraqi government must bring the same determination to achieving reconciliation. This is an enormous undertaking after more than three decades of tyranny and division. The government has not met its own legislative benchmarks – and in my meetings with Iraqi leaders, I have made it clear that they must.

Yet Iraq’s national leaders are getting some things done. For example, they have passed a budget. They are sharing oil revenues with the provinces. They are allowing former Ba’athists to rejoin Iraq’s military or receive government pensions. And local reconciliation is taking place. The key now is to link this progress in the provinces to progress in Baghdad. As local politics change, so will national politics.

Senator Reed:
It [the Democrat plan] engages in diplomacy to bring warring factions to the table and addresses regional issues that inflame the situation.

Once again, isn’t President proposing the same thing? Have Republicans and Democrats found common ground on the way forward in Iraq? This all depends on how future events unfold. If the troops can be withdrawn sooner than later, if the Iraqi army takes control of their country, and if the diplomacy works to where rival factions begin to work together, the Democrats will try to take credit for pushing President Bush in this “new” direction. If, however, all of these strategies fail, the Democrats will have plausible deniability. This would explain why elected Democrats continue to be vague on the way forward in Iraq.

Why Ron Paul Faces An Uphill Battle

It’s hard to win with a campaign based on liberty, when so many Americans don’t seem to really believe in it:

WASHINGTON — Sixty-five percent of Americans believe that the nation’s founders intended the U.S. to be a Christian nation and 55% believe that the Constitution establishes a Christian nation, according to the “State of the First Amendment 2007” national survey released today by the First Amendment Center.

The survey also found that 71% of Americans would limit the amount a corporation or union could contribute to a political campaign, with 64% favoring such a limit on individual contributions. Sixty-two percent would limit the amount a person could contribute to his or her own campaign. Support for such limits increased from the 2000 survey in all three areas: by nine percentage points in favor of limits on self-funding, by seven points concerning limits on individual contributions to someone else; and by three points on limits on corporations and unions.

The First Amendment Center has conducted the annual survey since 1997. This year’s survey, being released to mark both annual Constitution Day (Sept. 17) activities and the sixth anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, also found:

  • Just 56% believe that the freedom to worship as one chooses extends to all religious groups, regardless of how extreme — down 16 points from 72% in 2000.
  • 58% of Americans would prevent protests during a funeral procession, even on public streets and sidewalks; and 74% would prevent public school students from wearing a T-shirt with a slogan that might offend others.
  • 34% (lowest since the survey first was done in 1997) think the press “has too much freedom,” but 60% of Americans disagree with the statement that the press tries to report the news without bias, and 62% believe the making up of stories is a widespread problem in the news media — down only slightly from 2006.
  • 25% said “the First Amendment goes too far in the rights it guarantees,” well below the 49% recorded in the 2002 survey that followed the 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001, but up from 18% in 2006.

Depressing, just utterly, utterly depressing.

H/T: Irish Trojan In Tennessee

Whose Brain Is It In That Bucket?

It looks like the nanny state is alive and well, with our federal government champing at the bit to make brain-buckets mandatory nationwide:

States should require motorcycle riders to wear proper helmets, government investigators urged as part of several recommendations that seek to stem a steady rise in motorcycle deaths. There are useful websites available where motorcycle helmets are reviewed and aspects such as safety are rated and explained, you can learn more here.

Members of the National Transportation Safety Board unanimously approved the motorcycle safety recommendations, wading into a contentious issue that has pitted motorcycle rights’ groups against safety organizations in many states.

Iowa, Illinois and New Hampshire have no helmet laws.

“The simple act of donning that helmet can begin the process of preventing that type of fatality and serious injury,” said NTSB chairman Mark V. Rosenker.

Are the number of motorcycle fatalities rising? Yes. Would many of those deaths be prevented by the use of helmets? Well, as someone who has endured two crashes, one where I watched dirt go by 3 inches away from my eye through the faceshield of a helmet, and another which was a violent 75-mph highside on the racetrack, I can definitely say that more widespread use of helmets would make crashes less likely to result in severe brain injury or death. It’s just common sense: use your head and wear a quality motorcycle helmet. It can literally be the difference between life and death. Both times the accidents weren’t my fault so I got a personal injury lawyer and was able to get compensated by the drivers who hit me.

But that avoids a very serious question. Who’s head is it?

There is no more blatant example of the nanny state than helmet laws. Motorcycling is, by nature, a fairly dangerous activity. All the helmet laws in the world won’t change that, but the use of helmets would go a long way to improving the situation. But the question at issue is not whether it will result in fewer deaths, but rather whether individuals have the right to set their own risk tolerance, or whether it is government’s job to do it for them.

Motorcycling, for many reasons, tends to attract the sort of people who are against heavy government intervention. But they’re shooting themselves in the foot when they offer laughable arguments like the one below, rather than a principled argument to be treated like adults:

Motorcycle groups questioned the ability of helmets to provide complete protection and prevent internal injuries in a crash. They said more rider education programs are needed.

“If a truck pulls out in front of you and runs a stop sign, how is that helmet going to prevent an accident?” asked Steve Rector, state coordinator for ABATE Iowa, a motorcycle rights’ group. He also noted that motorcycle registrations and the number of miles traveled by motorcyclists have increased in recent years.

With an increase in the number of miles traveled and the popularity of biking growing year on year, more communities – like the Spanish speaking community – are getting sucked into the biker lifestyle. Therefore, such people need to be communicated with to discuss what to do following a crash and what legal action can be taken following an incident. Thankfully, there is help for Spanish speakers from an abogado accidentes de moto available if you look in the right places online.

Judith Lee Stone, president of Advocates for Highway and Auto Safety, said there was “no scientific evidence that motorcycle rider training reduces crash risk and is an adequate substitute for an all-rider helmet law.”

Rider education? Yes, that helps, but there’s a bit of a saying that many of my fellow motorcyclists have: “Dress for the crash, not for the ride.” Yes, it would be nice to simply tell each other “Don’t crash”, but that often doesn’t work as well in practice as it does in theory.

But that doesn’t give the government a legitimate power to set individuals’ risk preferences for them. Riding a motorcycle without a helmet is stupid, regardless of how much “rider education” you have, but it is not the government’s job to stop you from being stupid. If that were the case, we’d have long ago stopped a lot of people from voting.

Another Quote Of The Day

Given some of the discussions that have been taking place here lately, and what clearly seems to be an abundance of emotion and enthusiasm and seeming willful denial of reality, I thought this quote might be appropriate:

Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.
 
John Adams, ‘Argument in Defense of the Soldiers in the Boston Massacre Trials,’ December 1770
US diplomat & politician (1735 – 1826)

Or, as Ayn Rand would say, A is A.

L.A. Times/Bloomberg Poll Confirms: The Same Old Guys Are Winning

The Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg News conducted an extensive poll of 3,211 Republicans and Democrats in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, and the results are about the same as we’ve been seeing in every other poll:

At the beginning of the autumn dash to the primaries, a new Times/Bloomberg Poll of 3,211 Democrats and Republicans in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina shows that Hillary Clinton maintains a strong lead in all three states (28%, 35% and 45%, respectively). John Edwards is a relatively close second in Iowa (23%) with Obama at 19%, tied for second at 16% with Barack Obama in New Hampshire and trailing Obama badly (27% to 7%) in South Carolina.

Bill Richardson has 10% in Iowa, 8% in New Hampshire and 1% in South Carolina. Joe Biden, Dennis Kucinich and Chris Dodd all draw 3% to 0% in the three states.

In the Republican race, Mitt Romney holds a clear lead in Iowa (28%) to Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson tied for second at 16%. Mike Huckabee comes in third at 8%, John McCain at 7%, Tom Tancredo at 3%, Ron Paul and Sam Brownback at 2% and Duncan Hunter at 1%.

Romney maintains a slimmer lead in New Hampshire, 28% to Giuliani’s 23%, while McCain has moved up to third with 12% and Thompson at 11%, two points behind Don’t Know. In South Carolina, newcomer Thompson has surged into the lead with 26% to Giuliani’s 23%, McCain’s 15% and Romney’s 9%. Huckabee has 6%. The poll was taken Sept. 6-10 with a margin of error of +/- 4 or 5%.

What’s clear from each of these polls on the Republican side is that the guys at the top are staying at the top, and Ron Paul isn’t getting above the 2-3% level that he hit over the summer.

Distressingly, it’s looking more and more like a 2008 where libertarians will have to decide between voting for the lesser of two evils, voting for an LP candidate destined to lose, or staying home.

1 4 5 6 7 8 13