Republican Voters Abandoning Free Trade, Lower Taxes

Well this is an entirely disturbing development:

WASHINGTON — By a nearly two-to-one margin, Republican voters believe free trade is bad for the U.S. economy, a shift in opinion that mirrors Democratic views and suggests trade deals could face high hurdles under a new president.

he sign of broadening resistance to globalization came in a new Wall Street Journal-NBC News Poll4 that showed a fraying of Republican Party orthodoxy on the economy. While 60% of respondents said they want the next president and Congress to continue cutting taxes, 32% said it’s time for some tax increases on the wealthiest Americans to reduce the budget deficit and pay for health care.

Six in 10 Republicans in the poll agreed with a statement that free trade has been bad for the U.S. and said they would agree with a Republican candidate who favored tougher regulations to limit foreign imports. That represents a challenge for Republican candidates who generally echo Mr. Bush’s calls for continued trade expansion, and reflects a substantial shift in sentiment from eight years ago.

“It’s a lot harder to sell the free-trade message to Republicans,” said Republican pollster Neil Newhouse, who conducts the Journal/NBC poll with Democratic counterpart Peter Hart. The poll comes ahead of the Oct. 9 Republican presidential debate in Michigan sponsored by the Journal and the CNBC and MSNBC television networks.

The leading Republican candidates are still trying to promote free trade. “Our philosophy has to be not how many protectionist measures can we put in place, but how do we invent new things to sell” abroad, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani said in a recent interview. “That’s the view of the future. What [protectionists] are trying to do is lock in the inadequacies of the past.”

Such a stance is sure to face a challenge in the 2008 general election. Though President Bill Clinton famously steered the Democratic Party toward a less-protectionist bent and promoted the North American Free Trade Agreement, his wife and the current Democratic front-runner, Hillary Rodham Clinton, has adopted more skeptical rhetoric. Mrs. Clinton has come out against a U.S. trade deal with South Korea.

Other leading Democrats have been harshly critical of trade expansion, pleasing their party’s labor-union backers. In a March 2007 WSJ/NBC poll, before recent scandals involving tainted imports, 54% of Democratic voters said free-trade agreements have hurt the U.S., compared with 21% who said they have helped.

One would have thought that this debate would’ve ended when Al Gore whipped Ross Perot during their much hyped NAFTA debate. Heck, one would’ve thought this debate would’ve ended when the folly that was Smoot-Hawley wrecked the economy of 1930s America. Instead, the inane economic populism of Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot seems to be making inroads in the GOP.

And it’s not just free trade that’s falling out of favor:

A clear majority of Republicans want more tax cuts, but among Republicans who identify themselves as moderate or liberal — about one-third of the party’s primary voters — a 48% plurality favored some tax increase to fund health care and other priorities.

In part, the concern about trade reflected in the survey reflects the changing composition of the Republican electorate as social conservatives have grown in influence. In questions about a series of candidate stances, the only one drawing strong agreement from a majority of Republicans was opposition to abortion rights.

Post-9/11 security concerns have also displaced some of the traditional economic concerns of the Republican Party that Ronald Reagan reshaped a generation ago. Asked which issues will be most important in determining their vote, a 32% plurality cited national defense, while 25% cited domestic issues such as education and health care, and 23% cited moral issues. Ranking last, identified by just 17%, were economic issues such as taxes and trade.

For a time, it actually seemed like economic conservatives might find a home in the Democratic Party. After all, Bill Clinton may have talked like a liberal, but he governed like a free-trade Republican, often to the consternation of his own party. Now, it seems like both parties are falling under the populist spell once again.