Comments on: Is The Surge Actually Working ? http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2007/10/14/is-the-surge-actually-working/ Life. Liberty. Property. Defending individual freedom and liberty, one post at a time. Wed, 08 Feb 2012 17:04:34 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.2.1 By: TanGeng http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2007/10/14/is-the-surge-actually-working/#comment-39917 TanGeng Mon, 15 Oct 2007 12:56:17 +0000 http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2007/10/14/is-the-surge-actually-working/#comment-39917 I think whomever needed to be killed has been killed in 2005 and 2006. The surge is way too late and I'm skeptical that it would have been of any help when the real sectarian violence was going on. I don't know if the surge is working. It may be because of the surge policy, but I can name other factors contributing to the drop in violence, too. But the drop in violence hasn't done anything for political progress. The Iraqi government is looking more and more like an illegitimate government incapable of reaching any consensus. I think whomever needed to be killed has been killed in 2005 and 2006. The surge is way too late and I’m skeptical that it would have been of any help when the real sectarian violence was going on.

I don’t know if the surge is working. It may be because of the surge policy, but I can name other factors contributing to the drop in violence, too. But the drop in violence hasn’t done anything for political progress. The Iraqi government is looking more and more like an illegitimate government incapable of reaching any consensus.

]]> By: Seer http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2007/10/14/is-the-surge-actually-working/#comment-39863 Seer Mon, 15 Oct 2007 01:23:27 +0000 http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2007/10/14/is-the-surge-actually-working/#comment-39863 As others have noted, it's a failure until the Iraqis have a working government. And the Brownback-Biden partition is a bad idea, at least according to what the Iraq Study Group found when they looked at the populations of the country. Besides, it ought to be a matter of self-determination, let the Iraqis work out if a three state solution is best. As others have noted, it’s a failure until the Iraqis have a working government. And the Brownback-Biden partition is a bad idea, at least according to what the Iraq Study Group found when they looked at the populations of the country. Besides, it ought to be a matter of self-determination, let the Iraqis work out if a three state solution is best.

]]> By: UCrawford http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2007/10/14/is-the-surge-actually-working/#comment-39861 UCrawford Mon, 15 Oct 2007 01:14:50 +0000 http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2007/10/14/is-the-surge-actually-working/#comment-39861 Harpers had a better article about how the activity of the death squads spiked once Bayan Jabr (member of SCIRI and the Da'wa Party) took over the Interior Ministry from Falah al-Naqib. http://www.harpers.org/archive/2006/08/0081159 Harpers had a better article about how the activity of the death squads spiked once Bayan Jabr (member of SCIRI and the Da’wa Party) took over the Interior Ministry from Falah al-Naqib.

http://www.harpers.org/archive/2006/08/0081159

]]> By: UCrawford http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2007/10/14/is-the-surge-actually-working/#comment-39860 UCrawford Mon, 15 Oct 2007 01:12:15 +0000 http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2007/10/14/is-the-surge-actually-working/#comment-39860 Rho, The refugees will happen once partitioning begins. We've already seen it in Kurdish areas...once the Kurds consolidated power they started forcibly evicting Arabs from their homes: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2003/04/19/MN111472.DTL And the Shi'a ran death squads to evict Sunni from Shi'a neighborhoods, possibly aided by Iraq's Interior Ministry: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/12/03/AR2005120300881.html The surge kept the violence down for a bit, but once the troops rotate home in the spring that comes to an end and you'll see the refugee problems start again because the government has never resolved any of the issues that contribute to the violence. Iraq may very well partition itself in the future, but it's going to be a very bloody process and it's not going to be in our interests to be involved because it's very likely to turn into a shooting war. Biden's plan is the worst kind of wishful thinking and it's not our responsibility to determine the Iraqis' course for them. Rho,

The refugees will happen once partitioning begins. We’ve already seen it in Kurdish areas…once the Kurds consolidated power they started forcibly evicting Arabs from their homes:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2003/04/19/MN111472.DTL

And the Shi’a ran death squads to evict Sunni from Shi’a neighborhoods, possibly aided by Iraq’s Interior Ministry:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/12/03/AR2005120300881.html

The surge kept the violence down for a bit, but once the troops rotate home in the spring that comes to an end and you’ll see the refugee problems start again because the government has never resolved any of the issues that contribute to the violence.

Iraq may very well partition itself in the future, but it’s going to be a very bloody process and it’s not going to be in our interests to be involved because it’s very likely to turn into a shooting war. Biden’s plan is the worst kind of wishful thinking and it’s not our responsibility to determine the Iraqis’ course for them.

]]> By: Chepe Noyon http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2007/10/14/is-the-surge-actually-working/#comment-39857 Chepe Noyon Mon, 15 Oct 2007 00:56:53 +0000 http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2007/10/14/is-the-surge-actually-working/#comment-39857 I must say, I didn't expect the surge to have much of an effect, and the jury is still out, as far as I'm concerned. But the evidence from the last few weeks is certainly heartening. As others have already pointed out, the reduction in violence is only the first requirement of the long-term solution: political accommodation among the three parties in Iraq. And that is not happening as yet. Worse, we have achieved peace in Sunni areas by arming the local militias -- which means that, if there is a civil war, it will be all the more horrific. I must say, I didn’t expect the surge to have much of an effect, and the jury is still out, as far as I’m concerned. But the evidence from the last few weeks is certainly heartening.

As others have already pointed out, the reduction in violence is only the first requirement of the long-term solution: political accommodation among the three parties in Iraq. And that is not happening as yet. Worse, we have achieved peace in Sunni areas by arming the local militias — which means that, if there is a civil war, it will be all the more horrific.

]]> By: rho http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2007/10/14/is-the-surge-actually-working/#comment-39856 rho Mon, 15 Oct 2007 00:55:28 +0000 http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2007/10/14/is-the-surge-actually-working/#comment-39856 I didn't read anything about refugees. When sectarian violence has succeeded in chasing out one sect, the violence will go down. That said, it's nice that we've managed to reach a level of violence of more than a year ago. I didn’t read anything about refugees. When sectarian violence has succeeded in chasing out one sect, the violence will go down.

That said, it’s nice that we’ve managed to reach a level of violence of more than a year ago.

]]> By: UCrawford http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2007/10/14/is-the-surge-actually-working/#comment-39852 UCrawford Mon, 15 Oct 2007 00:44:53 +0000 http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2007/10/14/is-the-surge-actually-working/#comment-39852 And I suppose you'll argue that it's our responsibility to partition them. And that we are responsible for presiding over the inevitable relocation that will take place once the sectarian groups start forcibly evicting Shi'a from Sunni areas and Sunni from Shi'a areas. I'm sure that'll work out well, considering how we've done a bang up job of keeping the violence down for the last four and a half years. And who's going to carry this out? Once we start the spring troop rotations and send 30,000-40,000 troops home we've got nobody left to send because the units back home aren't ready to take their place. http://www.slate.com/id/2173902/ Where's the manpower going to come from to pull this off, Doug? Or the resources, considering the military's current equipment shortage, (which were bad back in January and are even worse now)? http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/29/AR2007012901584.html Maybe we should just trust the Iraqi police forces to handle security for this partition plan: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article576433.ece By all means, Doug, explain how the logistics and on-the-ground realities of the interventionist foreign policy you so favor are magically going to fix themselves and make Biden's plan possible. Or why it's even our responsibility to try it. And I suppose you’ll argue that it’s our responsibility to partition them. And that we are responsible for presiding over the inevitable relocation that will take place once the sectarian groups start forcibly evicting Shi’a from Sunni areas and Sunni from Shi’a areas. I’m sure that’ll work out well, considering how we’ve done a bang up job of keeping the violence down for the last four and a half years.

And who’s going to carry this out? Once we start the spring troop rotations and send 30,000-40,000 troops home we’ve got nobody left to send because the units back home aren’t ready to take their place.

http://www.slate.com/id/2173902/

Where’s the manpower going to come from to pull this off, Doug? Or the resources, considering the military’s current equipment shortage, (which were bad back in January and are even worse now)?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/01/29/AR2007012901584.html

Maybe we should just trust the Iraqi police forces to handle security for this partition plan:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article576433.ece

By all means, Doug, explain how the logistics and on-the-ground realities of the interventionist foreign policy you so favor are magically going to fix themselves and make Biden’s plan possible. Or why it’s even our responsibility to try it.

]]> By: Kevin http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2007/10/14/is-the-surge-actually-working/#comment-39851 Kevin Mon, 15 Oct 2007 00:39:48 +0000 http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2007/10/14/is-the-surge-actually-working/#comment-39851 <blockquote><i>The government’s a dysfunctional mess, the Sunnis are still disenfranchised, and the Kurds are provoking war with the Turks. The surge is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.</i></blockquote> The purpose of the surge was to provide the Iraqis time to get their political affairs in order. By this measurement alone, the surge has failed. The question is, what next?

The government’s a dysfunctional mess, the Sunnis are still disenfranchised, and the Kurds are provoking war with the Turks. The surge is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

The purpose of the surge was to provide the Iraqis time to get their political affairs in order. By this measurement alone, the surge has failed.

The question is, what next?

]]> By: UCrawford http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2007/10/14/is-the-surge-actually-working/#comment-39850 UCrawford Mon, 15 Oct 2007 00:34:28 +0000 http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2007/10/14/is-the-surge-actually-working/#comment-39850 Watch what happens once the troops start rotating home in the spring and then tell us how great the surge was. The government's a dysfunctional mess, the Sunnis are still disenfranchised, and the Kurds are provoking war with the Turks. The surge is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Watch what happens once the troops start rotating home in the spring and then tell us how great the surge was.

The government’s a dysfunctional mess, the Sunnis are still disenfranchised, and the Kurds are provoking war with the Turks. The surge is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

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