Ron Paul’s Boots On The Ground In New Hampshire
Today’s Washington Post takes a look at the ground war that Ron Paul’s supporters are running in the state that will hold the nation’s first primary in February:
STRAFFORD, N.H. — There’s no mistaking which house on Lake Shore Drive, about 45 minutes northeast of Manchester, is the one full of Paulites — the intensely loyal, almost fanatical supporters of Rep. Ron Paul. Signs are everywhere. On the back window of a brand new black Toyota, on the bumper of a green Geo, on a white Volvo station wagon that sits beside a beat-up lime green Honda. “Ron Paul 2008.”
“We can run the whole New Hampshire campaign right here,” says Jim Forsythe, 39, a former Air Force pilot who’s on his driveway in jeans, T-shirt and white socks. “We’re the hard-core supporters.”
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In a state where Patrick Buchanan upset Bob Dole, the front-runner for the GOP nomination, more than a decade ago, anything is possible, says Andrew Smith, a pollster and director of the University of New Hampshire’s Survey Center. As of last November, 26 percent of New Hampshire’s electorate were registered Democrats and 30 percent were Republicans. But the biggest block of voters — 44 percent — were undeclared. Forty percent to 45 percent of those, Smith says, leaned Democrat and 25 percent to 30 percent Republican.
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“Everyone — the staffers in the other campaigns, the bigwig political observers in the state — is scratching their heads. They don’t know what to make of this Ron Paul phenomenon,” pollster Smith says. A University of New Hampshire poll last month showed Paul at 4 percent in the state. The most recent Washington Post-ABC News national poll, also from last month, had him at 3 percent. “The other campaigns aren’t worried that he’d win the primary. They just don’t know who his supporters are and whose support he’s taking away,” Smith adds. “His poll numbers aren’t high now, but it’s only October. And they could see him getting 10 percent of the vote here. If you get 10 percent of the vote in a crowded field, well, you might finish third.” But the Paulites are aiming for higher than third place.
But winning has different meanings in an early primary state like New Hampshire. When the race is in its early stages, nominations are largely a game of perception, and a candidate who does better than he or she is expected to — whether in Iowa, New Hampshire, or South Carolina — is likely to find themselves catapulted from also-ran to, if not contender, then at least potential spoiler. Ron Paul doesn’t have to win in New Hampshire to be taken seriously, he just has to do better than anyone expects, which is why it might be wise for his supporters to down-play expectations.
