Coalition…what coalition?!

Erick Erickson tells us why Mike Huckabee is a threat to the Republican Party’s coalition than Rudy Giuliani:

The leaders of the social conservative movement who were present, the Arlington Group members you hear so much about, were ready and willing to get on board Romney’s campaign on Saturday morning. Then Huckabee spoke. Then the straw vote was tabulated. Then they realized that were they to do so, it would put them completely out of step with their members.

The social conservatives do not want to rally around Huckabee because he is as distasteful to fiscalcons as Rudy is to socons. Even Tony Perkins, the head of FRC, said he hoped the social conservative candidate would be palatable to the fiscal conservatives out there. Huckabee is not.
The fiscal guys see the writing on the wall. They see Hillary’s position. And they are just about ready to cut a deal. And then you have the Republican libertarians who are just about ready to really vote for Ron Paul, doing to the GOP in 2008 what Ralph Nader voters did for the Democrats in 2000.

Huckabee breaks the coalition more than Giuliani because the socons fear Hillary more than the fiscalcons do. And that is why we won’t see too many of the socon leaders rallying to the clear favorite of the socon base.

That last paragraph kind of sums up a conversation my mom (a Fred Thompson supporter and social conservative) and I (a fiscal conservative) had over dinner on Friday night. I despise Hillary Clinton. I believe her goal is take more individual liberty away and dramatically increase the size of government…but isn’t that what George W. Bush has done in two terms? My point to her was that the American voter, specifically a moderate and or an independent, is not going to be swayed by the anti-Hillary Clinton rhetoric because I don’t believe they can look at George Bush and say, “this woman is going to be so much worse.”

  • Kevin Houston

    How can Ron Paul be a Nader to the Republicans when Ron Paul is inside the party? Nader siphoned voters from the Democrats, Ron Paul is bring new voters into the Republican tent.

    Ron Paul isn’t going to run third party. He isn’t going to run as an independent. I think he is going to start winning some primaries (probably not IA, but perhaps NH) and might even win the nomination.

    I think Ron Paul has a chance, precisely because he is acceptable (although not first choice) of both so-cons, and fi-cons. In addition, he has huge cross-over appeal (as opposed to Rudy) with Democrats and Independents.

    While not perfect, Ron Paul is the best compromise available. He has the organization (50,000+ meetup group members) and the money ($5 million today with a $12 million goal for 4th Qtr.)


  • Kevin Houston

    BTW, it’s clear to see that the Fox news “focus group” is stacked with pro-war supporters. I think this is a deliberate hit-job on Ron Paul.

    Please note the time, it is still before the debate.


  • Jeanette Doney

    There were many Libertarians, such as myself, and those at, who supported Nader in 2004 and are supporting Ron Paul now. The Democrats have accused Nader of taking GOP money because the Greens are to the Democrats what the Libertarians are to the GOP, “spoilers”.

    Ralph Nader runs for office because elections are bought and thus in need of a non partisan consumer advocate. It is the Federal Elections Commission who insists one must be on the ballot to challange an election.

    Ralph Nader has endorced Ron Paul for the GOP. But that does not mean Nader should stop being a consumer advocate and not challenge bought elections. I told Nader, I’d be happy to help him with ballot access because an independent candidate has the RIGHT to be on the ballot.

    I’m sure Ron Paul would agree.

  • FreedomDemocrat

    This is going to not only cause serious problems for the nomination, but in the selection of VP. It looks like the social conservatives are going to roll over and let Romney and Giuliani win the nomination, although they will certainly be complaining constantly because of it.

    They’ll want a VP to pander to them, but is there a high profile social conservative that doesn’t have the baggage of a Huckabee?