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October 21, 2007

Ron Paul Comes In Fourth

by Doug Mataconis

Unfortunately, it’s not the kind of poll you want to place very high in:

Whom would you NEVER vote for for President of the U.S.?

%

Clinton (D)

50%

Kucinich (D)

49%

Gravel (D)

47%

Paul (R)

47%

Brownback (R)

47%

Tancredo (R)

46%

McCain (R)

45%

Hunter (R)

44%

Giuliani (R)

43%

Romney (R)

42%

Edwards (D)

42%

Thompson (R)

41%

Dodd (D)

41%

Biden (D)

40%

Obama (D)

37%

Huckabee (R)

35%

Richardson (D)

34%

Not sure

4%

I’m not sure what the source of the high negatives is, but it could be one explanation for poll numbers consistently below 10%.

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17 Comments

  1. Look on the bright side: Paul is a full three points ahead of the Democratic favorite, and he’s only four points behind the Republican favorite. Seen this way, this is a close race!

    Comment by Chepe Noyon — October 21, 2007 @ 12:46 pm
  2. Well, all the moderates are at the bottom and all the extremists are at the top. Not very surprising.

    Comment by somebody — October 21, 2007 @ 12:58 pm
  3. If the reason Paul is consistently below 10% is his high negatives, then why is Giulini the leading Republican candidate when his negatives are only slightly (4%)lower?
    I also don’t buy that the extremists are at the top and the moderates are at the bottom. Clinton’s negative is 50%(highest) and Obama is at 37%(3rd from bottom). What definition of moderate and extreme explains that?

    Comment by Bob — October 21, 2007 @ 1:57 pm
  4. By extremist I meant they want to seriously change the status quo. Of course, there are exceptions (and the candidate’s own personality comes into play as well), but for the most part that’s the way the candidates seem to be listed.

    Comment by somebody — October 21, 2007 @ 2:16 pm
  5. 1) Personality. Paul comes off as too angry.

    2) Views. The American people believe in gradual change for the most part. Paul is a radical.

    Comment by Kevin — October 21, 2007 @ 2:27 pm
  6. Bob,

    For a candidate whose name recognition is still low like Paul’s is, high negatives like that are not good.

    Comment by Doug Mataconis — October 21, 2007 @ 2:37 pm
  7. Kevin,

    2) Views. The American people believe in gradual change for the most part. Paul is a radical.

    I think there’s some wisdom in this. Radicals have never done well in American politics and, at least on the Republican side, Ron Paul is the most radical candidate in the race.

    Comment by Doug Mataconis — October 21, 2007 @ 2:38 pm
  8. Doug,
    Your right those numbers are especially bad for someone like Paul. I’m surprised that 47% knew enough about him to say they would never vote for him. I saw a Iowa poll that showed that 71% had ruled out Paul. The same poll showed his favorable/unfavorable ratio was about 1:1. I’m also surprised that 47% knew enough about Gravel to never vote for him. Those numbers seem too high for unknown candidates.

    Comment by Bob — October 21, 2007 @ 4:02 pm
  9. Did anyone read the fine print?
    This poll was conducted online. Conduct the same poll offline and you’ll get 89% respond, “Who?”

    Anyone who is online often enough to register with Zogby has a strong opinion of Paul by now. You can win with high negatives if your positives are equally passionate.

    I’m not sure what the source of the high negatives is

    He espouses ideas that run contrary to the “conventional wisdom”. If you’re willing to challenge the conventional wisdom, you see that he’s right and you love him. If not, you think he’s a moron that would destroy the place.

    I’m not sure what the source of the high negatives is

    it could be one explanation for poll numbers consistently below 10%.

    No, read Forbes and Gallup.

    He has only recently reached 11% awareness. Of those that are aware of his candidacy, 33% find him appealing. That’s in the same ballpark as the big names.

    33% times 11% = 3.6%

    And it just so happens that a least squares trend line for the Gallup polls puts him at just a hair under 4%.

    At this stage of the game, awareness is easy to build. His numbers will go up according.

    Now, everyone quite worrying and get back to work. :) We have a busy quarter ahead of us.

    2) Views. The American people believe in gradual change for the most part. Paul is a radical.

    No, aside from the war, every policy change he proposes would be gradual. Please don’t spread myths.

    Comment by Jeff Molby — October 21, 2007 @ 7:04 pm
  10. No, aside from the war, every policy change he proposes would be gradual. Please don’t spread myths.

    Like withdrawing from the UN, the WTO, abolishing the Federal Reserve, letting passengers carry guns on airplanes…..

    Comment by Kevin — October 21, 2007 @ 7:53 pm
  11. Like withdrawing from the UN, the WTO

    I suppose you can’t gradually change those. It’s not like they would have a direct impact on every day life though.

    abolishing the Federal Reserve

    He has clearly stated that he wouldn’t pursue that unless and until a competing currency has been established.

    letting passengers carry guns on airplanes

    He most definitely did not say that. He would repeal federal restrictions and let the airlines decide how to protect their customers and property. And he would do it gradually.

    If Ron Paul actually proposed even 1/10 of the things incorrectly attributed, he would be a f!@#in idiot.

    Comment by Jeff Molby — October 21, 2007 @ 8:14 pm
  12. Jeff,

    Be honest, do you think that a candidate who hasn’t breached 10% at this point in the race has a chance of winning the nomination ?

    Comment by Doug Mataconis — October 21, 2007 @ 9:02 pm
  13. If Ron Paul actually proposed even 1/10 of the things incorrectly attributed, he would be a f!@#in idiot.

    You’re arguing with a know-it-all college student…

    Comment by js290 — October 21, 2007 @ 9:13 pm
  14. Be honest, do you think that a candidate who hasn’t breached 10% at this point in the race has a chance of winning the nomination ?

    Yeah, I’m looking forward to another Clinton administration…

    Comment by js290 — October 21, 2007 @ 9:14 pm
  15. This was an internet based poll I believe, in that you had to sign up online with Zogby for them to send you this poll. I was one of those that signed up and voted. I think this reflects more the online biases. You have alot of people online that really dislike the frontrunners (us, moveon.org) and people who dislike the fringe (Red State, Townhall, Kos). Those in the middle get a pass here because they are least objectionable, but that doesn’t mean that they’re set to win. Huckabee is running out of money because his support is lukewarm (“nice guy, maybe I’ll consider him in the primaries, but I’m not about to give money to him), Richardson and Obama are fighting against fate itself (Emperess Hillary) and the republicans aren’t really paying attention to them online. So don’t assume that just because Hillary is more objectionable than Rudy that she can’t completely wipe the floor with him. She can and she will and I’ll be sitting at home with a bowl of popcorn watching the howls of despair when the neocons realize everything they’ve done was for naught.

    Comment by Greg — October 21, 2007 @ 10:44 pm
  16. Be honest, do you think that a candidate who hasn’t breached 10% at this point in the race has a chance of winning the nomination ?

    Absolutely. Two reason:

    -An obscure congressman was not going get any significant coverage until he distanced himself from the peleton. That has happened and the coverage has improved.
    -He’s just now starting to spend money.

    Expect to see his awareness over 50% nationally by the end of the year. 80-90% in the early states.

    Comment by Jeff Molby — October 22, 2007 @ 12:37 am
  17. Hmmm, funny how you see no one complaining about this poll being “hijacked” by non-Paul supporters.

    Comment by Vladimir — October 22, 2007 @ 11:42 am

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