Thoughts, essays, and writings on Liberty. Written by the heirs of Patrick Henry.

October 25, 2007

Is Ron Paul Close To 10% In New Hampshire ?

by Doug Mataconis

A new poll being released today seems to suggest that the answer is yes:

St. Anselm College’s Institute of Politics will release a new poll today, completed by SRBI Research in New York City, showing that Clinton and Romney hold solid leads in New Hampshire.

The survey of 1,514 likely primary voters has margins of error of 4.1 percent for Democrats, 4.5 percent for Republicans and 4.8 percent for undecided voters. It was conducted Oct. 15 to 21.

It shows Democrat Clinton leading Obama 42.6 to 21.5 percent, with John Edwards at 13.9 percent. Among Republicans, Romney leads Giuliani 32.4 to 21.8 percent, with John McCain at 15.2 percent and Ron Paul in fourth place at 7.4 percent.

The poll also shows that 40 percent of self-identified independents say they were still not sure if they would vote in the Democratic or Republican primary.

This is, as far as I can tell, the highest Paul has placed in any New Hampshire poll, thought it does seem to be inconsistent with other recent polls in the state.

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  • Bob

    7.6 is high compared to the other polls. It was conducted after the other polls and I think it was the 1st poll conducted after the Paul campaign started its radio ads. It is a big jump for the start of an ad campaign, to tell what’s really going on I’d like to see previous polls done by the same company (and their methodology) or the next round of polling done by all the companies.

  • bbartlog

    It could well be the radio ads. Oct 15-21 is what, about a week after they started running them? I certainly hope that’s the case; that would suggest that a week’s worth of advertising is enough for a significant bump, and there’s weeks more in the pipeline.
    But like Bob says, we’ll want further confirmation. The bump to 4% in the latest Rasmussen poll does suggest some movement in other places, too…

  • http://www.thesparsematrix.com rho

    Some of this poll nonsense is insane. “Inconsistent” with other polls? That could indicated momentum, right? What about back 4 months ago when Ron Paul was polling at a statistical zero? Many folks back then said “he’s polling at zero, why is he running?”

    A lot of smart people are obsessing over polls. Both pro- and contra-Ron Paul. Something needs to change about this.

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