RSS 2.0 FeedRon Paul Hits 7% In Two New New Hampshire Polls
by Doug MataconisThe New Hampshire primary is less than two months away, so we’re at the point where the rubber hits the road. Which is why Ron Paul supporters should be encouraged by the fact that both the Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire and Marist Polls both show him tied with Mike Huckabee at 7%.
As I’ve noted before, New Hampshire seems to be the state best suited to be one where Paul could make a statement. Even if he doesn’t actually win, a primary that results in him getting more support than people expect could lead to some very interesting media coverage and some interesting possibilities.
Realistically, the shortened primary schedule means that even a better-than-expected finish in New Hampshire might not translate into enough support to make a difference in the end, but it could be more than enough to send a message to a Republican leadership that seems to think that ideology is an afterthought, and that victory is an end in itself.
There is plenty of time for Ron Paul to rally! The key is going to be spending the money appropriately in the battleground states with enough to spare if the primary goes longer than Feb 5th, which for the GOP, I think it might! No? The vote seems so split in each state that the race is still wide open! Ron is doing great but the media still poses the biggest hurdle. It is now clear to me that some MSM are corrupted and not acting in the best interest of the American people!
Comment by Joseph — November 11, 2007 @ 9:15 pmI think something we all need to keep in mind is that for most of the year Ron Pauls name was not even on 90% of the polls sent out.
Also keep in mind the recent polls where Ron Pauls name has been added are republican potential voters, NH is a very independent state and these people have not been polled as well as many democrats that are now showing support for Ron Paul, so don’t be suprised if he doesn’t finish strong in NH or even win NH. The recent story i just read a few weeks ago is that NH has had an increase of voter registration of 44% was is a huge number of increase.
Ron Paul is also picking up steam in many other states now such as SC and IA
Ron Paul has also raised over 8 million dollars with an average donation of $80 so far with more than half the quarter left, so either way he is in this for the duration of the primaries. Do the math on that for a minute average donation $80 this quarter and over 8 million dollars thats over 100,000 people unlike the so called front runners who have an average donation of $1900
RONPAUL2008.COM
Comment by steve — November 11, 2007 @ 9:15 pmSteve,
You points are all well taken. Let me add, that Ron Paul has the most dedicated and vocal supporters here in NoVA and DC, I am sure that is the case nationally. We will be at the polls no matter what!!
Furthermore, the amount of people showing interest in Ron Paul is growing. The key is going to be closing the deal with the public. I think something key needs to happen, either more failure in Iraq or more war drums towards Iran. The American people are sick of the war and I think that is going to help Paul more than anyone else!
Comment by Joseph — November 11, 2007 @ 9:37 pmI wouldn’t be surprised if he won NH.
Comment by JRock — November 11, 2007 @ 9:39 pmYou all realize just how bad a Ron Paul primary victory would be – don’t you? Or do you just not care?
He is right about a handful of things, the IRS, our nearly complete abandonment of the Constitution, etc, however, Congressman Paul is tilting at windmills and unfortunately will do little more than spook our swing voters, not to mention embarassing the Republican base.
If this is what you want, than why don’t we all chip in and buy a silver platter and present it to the DNC. That would save alot of money and time over the coming year.
Ron Paul is refreshing, but he is crazy.
Comment by Jimmy John — November 11, 2007 @ 10:04 pmFirst, I will be very surprised if Ron Paul wins NH. I think that he has the potential to seriously shake up the GOP with a strong showing, though.
Second, you guys need to stop beating the anti-war drum. What is allowing Paul to do well is that the news from Iraq is good right now, not bad. This allows the GOP base to focus on other things that are important to them, like small government, lower taxes, etc. With Iraq looking like it is under control, the credit market, sub-prime meltdown and weakening dollar are catching the GOP’s attention and the usual suspects do not have a strong message there.
Third, a strong showing by Paul will rally the social conservative base to Giuliani. I hope the Ron Paul supporters are prepared for that. They are divided right now because there’s no clear social conservative candidate. But if they think their choice is likely to be Paul or a Democrat, they are going to make common cause with Giuliani quickly. I hope the Paul campaign is prepared to deal with that likely outcome. Unfortunately, that isn’t likely. Libertarians have no answer for people who support social conservative issues “because god says to”.
Comment by Eric — November 11, 2007 @ 10:08 pmEric-
“Third, a strong showing by Paul will rally the social conservative base to Giuliani. I hope the Ron Paul supporters are prepared for that. They are divided right now because there’s no clear social conservative candidate. But if they think their choice is likely to be Paul or a Democrat, they are going to make common cause with Giuliani quickly. I hope the Paul campaign is prepared to deal with that likely outcome. Unfortunately, that isn’t likely. Libertarians have no answer for people who support social conservative issues “because god says to”.
OK, wrong here…social conservatives? I am one, and have a brain, so do many others. They will hear his message and become passionate about Ron Paul like I did. Guiliani is hillary with a balding head and most of us know it.
Comment by chris — November 11, 2007 @ 11:12 pmJimmy John,
I guess Jefferson, Madison and the rest were crazy too.
As for being right about a handful of things? Which things is he not right about and how does that compare with other candidates? Are we in the scenario where you disagree with 10% of what he says so you will vote for a candidate that you disagree with 50% of what they say, only because they are “electable”?
Comment by Timur — November 11, 2007 @ 11:24 pmJimmie John says,
“He is right about a handful of things, the IRS, our nearly complete abandonment of the Constitution, etc, however, Congressman Paul is tilting at windmills and unfortunately will do little more than spook our swing voters, not to mention embarassing the Republican base.
If this is what you want, than why don’t we all chip in and buy a silver platter and present it to the DNC. That would save alot of money and time over the coming year.
Ron Paul is refreshing, but he is crazy.”
Typical…say he is crazy but does not offer any examples. Please tell us, why is he crazy? Be ready to get torched with facts. Unlike Dr. Paul detractors, Dr. Paul supporters tend to be able to back up their comments with facts.
Good luck.
Comment by Darren D — November 11, 2007 @ 11:25 pmTo those who support social conservative issues?
If there is an issue that is important than it should be handled at the state or local level. Which is easier, to change federal law or to change state law? The end result will be a legal competition between the various states. If Utah wants to legislate what happens in the bedroom will that help or hurt the state economically? You just got offered a job in Utah where that sort of legislation happens will you think twice about moving? I certainly would.
To those who say Dr. Paul is crazy: On what topic specifically is crazy? You leave me alone and I will leave you alone? To the “R’s” stop legislating morality. To the “D’s” stop taxing me to take care of every imagined social injustice.
What is more “fringe:” that we can police the world and legislate people into being good moral citizens? Or that if only we could spend enough money poverty and disease would go away?
Ron Paul is the only candidate in a long time (ever) who is saying what makes sense. At the intellectual level he is the only one saying anything that squares with human nature.
For too long my only choice has been between a douche bag or a sh!t sandwich. As a result I haven’t voted in years. I held my nose and went and registered. I will be voting for Dr. Paul if he is on the ballot or not. How many Rudy McRompson voters can say that?
Comment by biff — November 11, 2007 @ 11:27 pmPlease vote based on the platform, not on the game that is Blue vs Red. The lesser of two evils is still …evil. I like RP’s values, I will vote for him until they take the vote from me. So, play no head games -just vote your good conscience.
It’s so important to show your support /now/. You have more leverage because it’s still early. Please attend a meet up in your neighborhood.
Comment by JoeFreedom — November 12, 2007 @ 1:45 amI would rather vote for Ron Paul and see Hillary win, than see Rudy Giuliani in the presidency. I would hate a Hillary presidency, to be sure. I would hate seeing that cross dressing fascist in office worse.
Comment by Samj — November 12, 2007 @ 2:25 amWe would be shocked if the state and national GOP permit Paul to win without rigging the voting machines or ballot counting.
Comment by Charleston Voice — November 12, 2007 @ 3:36 amI’d like to look into some numbers on voter registration. The thing is, ONLY Ron Paul, out of everyone everywhere, is doing a Register To Vote campaign. Now, I know that a big election coming up would naturally increase registration, but what % is for Ron Paul? Also, ONLY Ron Paul people feel an urgency to register; to make sure the tricky dick rules don’t block their support if they weren’t already GOP. Also, ONLY Ron Paul people (right now) feel a burning desire to show up to their primary or caucus.
This isn’t victory in the bag. There’s been plenty of elections where people just assumed they’d win, and didn’t show up. And didn’t win.
Ron Paul could also suffer a “too big for his own good” MSM attack if we get a win in New Hampshire.
We do have a good shot, but not a sure shot. I like how the New York Times put it, “To his [delete] supporters, the responsibility lies with them.”
Comment by Rhys — November 12, 2007 @ 3:56 amI think it’s funny that “Jimmy John” wrote that Ron Paul “is crazy” -
and lists no examples.
We’re not likely to see any examples either because the most sane candidate I’ve seen running for President in my entire 36 year lifetime is Ron Paul and anybody that has spent any amount of time researching Paul’s record or his has listened to his speeches knows it quite well.
What’s crazy is calling George W. Bush a conservative, or having a bunch of ex communists suddenly (and supposedly) see the light and claim to be “Conservatives”, while growing the Federal government by 30%, starting a PRE-EMPTIVE war, and “nation building”. These are the Neocons which are just about as conservative as Ron Paul is crazy.
The only thing that I think that might be able to place Paul in the category of being nuts, is that he has the guts to stand up to this corrupt system.
Comment by Richard Wicks — November 12, 2007 @ 3:57 amcomment by Steve
“Ron Paul has also raised over 8 million dollars with an average donation of $80 so far with more than half the quarter left, so either way he is in this for the duration of the primaries. Do the math on that for a minute average donation $80 this quarter and over 8 million dollars thats over 100,000 people unlike the so called front runners who have an average donation of $1900″
There is also something else to consider, Dr. Paul is a huge hit among the college crowd, I don’t know of any college kids who have an extra $80.00 to throw at a presidential candidate, this would leave me to believe that most of these donations are form older gainfully employed citizens, which means there are a lot of non donating voters who haven’t been taken in to account.
Comment by Matthew Miller — November 12, 2007 @ 4:58 amRhys,
Voter registration is one thing. The important thing as the primaries get closer will be how the campaigns put together their get out the vote (GOTV) campaigns. Its one thing to get people registered, getting them to the polls is another thing entirely.
Comment by Doug Mataconis — November 12, 2007 @ 5:27 amChris,
There is one thing the social conservatives care most about and that’s beating Hillary. If they think Giuliani is the one to do it, they will rally around him.
Comment by Doug Mataconis — November 12, 2007 @ 5:29 amDoug,
(no snark intended)
While I am happy that bloggers such as yourself are enthused about Dr. Paul’s 7% in the Plain Old Telephone Surveys (POTS), I would be remiss (not to mention hypocritical) if I did not point out that these POTS are less than useless.
To those of you who support Dr. Paul, please, I implore you take no comfort from these numbers. There is much work to be done’ don’t be lulled into a false sense of security.
Every problem with POTS that was noted before, is still in effect (landlines only, past Republican primary voters only, etc. etc. etc.) The vast majority of Ron Paul votes will come from people who are not going to be part of any POTS.
Later
Comment by Kevin Houston — November 12, 2007 @ 5:57 amIf Ron Paul is crazy, then a president who shot bodily fluids on a woman’s dress in the Oval Office, and used a cigar for a sex instrumnet…….is crazier.
so there
Comment by lisa — November 12, 2007 @ 6:10 amTo authoritarians, I’m sure libertarians seem quite crazy.
Ron Paul would be assassinated if he has a legitimate shot at winning. It’ll be done either by the Federal Reserve mob or a 9/11 truther…
Comment by js290 — November 12, 2007 @ 6:47 amHe is not tied with Huckebee. Paul has 7% and Huckebee has 5%. I wonder if now he will get an invitation to Iowa on Dec 4th for the debates
Comment by Kat — November 12, 2007 @ 6:51 amChris:
The reason Giuliani has the support he currently has is a mix of RINO’s and social conservatives. In my opinion, you are fairly unique. Most social conservatives will hear that Ron Paul is a libertarian and automatically choose the person they think is most electable in order to oppose Hillary.
Comment by Eric — November 12, 2007 @ 7:35 amjs290 wrote “Ron Paul would be assassinated if he has a legitimate shot at winning. It’ll be done either by the Federal Reserve mob or a 9/11 truther…”
As paranoid as that may sound, it’s completely right. What a “genius” way to get rid of Dr. Paul and paint 9-11 truthers as “on the edge” terrorists with a taste for assassination. I’d thought of that for a while but never wanted to post it. This reality stuff is pretty scary shite.
Comment by Duane — November 12, 2007 @ 7:52 amDuane & JS,
This is the kind of paranoid nonsense that, quite honestly, makes the rest of the political world think that Paul’s supporters are a bunch of nutcases.
Comment by Doug Mataconis — November 12, 2007 @ 8:00 amRon Paul can no longer be labeled a “long shot” candidate. He has clearly has surpassed John McCain and is now a “top tier” candidate. I have created a website to support this statement.
Please visit http://www.thecaseforronpaul.com and judge for yourself.
Comment by Cleaner44 — November 12, 2007 @ 8:11 amDoubting Doug stricks again
Comment by Darel99 — November 12, 2007 @ 9:28 amShrugs, saying he is a top tier candidate doesn’t make it so Cleaner44. He could become one, but that is going to depend on a lot of things over the next few weeks. More likely, in my opinion, is that he will have the sort of impact on the GOP that Dean had on the DNC.
Comment by Eric — November 12, 2007 @ 9:31 amDarel,
The only thing I doubt is how talking about assassination fantasies helps win elections.
Comment by Doug Mataconis — November 12, 2007 @ 10:08 amI agree with Doug. Any talk of assassination before the fact is a detraction from the campaign and sounds hysterical. Take your guidance from Congressman Paul. Does he talk about assassination and conspiracy? No, he’s reasoned and polite, talks about policy and never gets personal with the other candidates, no matter how he’s treated. In other words a gentleman, and someone we can back with pride, win or lose. If you truly support the candidate you’ll help him by getting HIS message out, not your own.
Comment by David — November 12, 2007 @ 10:44 amSpread the word to all the older ‘offline’ folks that they can now give to Ron Paul via the new Freedom Hot-line, 1-877-RON-PAUL (that’s 1-877-766-7285). This rings directly into RP’s head quarters. So, if you know older folks, are putting out RP literature, have radio or TV adds running for RP – PLEASE MARKET THIS NUMBER TOO!
Comment by Rudy G — November 12, 2007 @ 10:45 amHe’s catchin’ on I’m tellin ya!
Comment by Alan A — November 12, 2007 @ 10:56 amI am the Radical right and I support Paul. A Born-again Believer realizing that “its the constitution stupid”
Comment by Paul — November 12, 2007 @ 11:18 amI am for Ron Paul and I typically support socially conservative and evangelical platforms. Ron Paul is a fresh voice concerned about domestic policy and our economy rather than fixing Iraq and Kuwait, like Bush I and Bush II and other Republicans. This is like 1992 after Bush I. The economy is in bad shape. We have entered into ill conceived wars in Iraq and Somalia and other parts. Cheney is still in power. Time for a fresh grassroot voice like Ron Paul to change the course of this country.
Comment by Ramone — November 12, 2007 @ 12:36 pmPlus, Ron Paul is more socially conservative than any other candidate out there. He has lived his conservatism rather than merely pay lip service like Guiliani and other candidates. Social and economic conservatives have no other choice than Ron Paul.
Comment by Ramone — November 12, 2007 @ 12:38 pmRon Paul will steal votes from both the Democrats and the rest of the Republicans.
The man is not “crazy”, he just sounds crazy because people aren’t used to real honesty from a politician.
As for the Republican base… They can bite me. It’s time to form a NEW REpublican base if they think that winning is worth having a Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney as the presidential nomineee.
If they are the nominee, you might as well throw in the towel now. The Republican Party as we knew it is over.
Comment by Brad Linzy, Evansville, IN — November 12, 2007 @ 12:45 pmjs290 wrote “Ron Paul would be assassinated if he has a legitimate shot at winning. It’ll be done either by the Federal Reserve mob or a 9/11 truther…”
What? Ron Paul wouldn’t be assassinated by a 9/11 truther. Truthers love Ron Paul. If anything, yeah, they might use a Truther as the patsy to make them look like the worst of the worst. But still, it wouldn’t make any sense, considering all the idiots like Hannit & Gibson have already associated Truthers with liking Paul, not hating him.
Comment by Greg — November 12, 2007 @ 12:52 pmI think the time is right for Ron Paul to seize the moment. He should air more commercials in New Hampshire. Also hand written campaigns are starting to take place around meet up groups as a grass root effort. We shall see more of that soon at our doorsteps. I believe he is our Next Prophet. Our next President! Go RON PAUL!
Comment by Aziz — November 12, 2007 @ 12:54 pmRon Paul will do well in the primaries simply because his support base is extremely motivated. We eat up every bit of information we can find on him – why else would we be posting comments to this 5-line story?
With that being said, every Ron Paul supporter that CAN vote in their respective primaries will more than likely vote. I doubt you can say the same about the supporters of the other candidates. They may support their candidate, but I doubt the same percentage of their supporters will make it out to vote in the primaries.
Don’t agree? Ask yourself – How many times a day do you google Ron Paul? How many times a day do you think Rudy’s supporters google him? Mitt’s?
We will be out in force to vote – an no doubt first in line. :-)
Paul
Comment by Paul W — November 12, 2007 @ 12:55 pmThe success that Ron Paul is enjoying is remarkable in spite of the medias indifference and downright hostility towards him. Yesterday’s interview on Face the Nation was the first time i ever seen Bob Schieffer treat a guest with such disrespect. I saw Tucker Carlson call Ron Paul a joke on Real Time and George Stephanopoulos bet Ron Paul that his presidential run would fail.
Way to go Dr. Paul. Made Bob Schieffer look like a doddering old fool yesterday.
I believe.
Comment by MarkD — November 12, 2007 @ 1:07 pmOh one more thing.. People who believe in 9/11 conspiracy theories are not “truthers” they are “retards”.
Comment by MarkD — November 12, 2007 @ 1:10 pmHere’s another socially conservative, evangelical, religious right whatever that’s supporting Ron Paul. Don’t understand why someone would think it unusual.
Comment by Cody — November 12, 2007 @ 2:29 pm“Realistically, the shortened primary schedule means that even a better-than-expected finish in New Hampshire might not translate into enough support to make a difference in the end, but it could be more than enough to send a message to a Republican leadership that seems to think that ideology is an afterthought, and that victory is an end in itself.”
Classic Mataconis, the neocon shill pretending to be a libertarian blogger.
Ron Paul’s going to win. And when he does, we get to find out what corrupt neocon payroll Mataconis is secretly on. I’m not kidding.
Comment by Buckwheat — November 12, 2007 @ 3:10 pmPeople are misjudging evangelicals. They are nowhere as homogeneous as the media portrays them. There are varying religious beliefs and various political involvement and evangelicals also have the same complications that all political groups have with incoherence of political logic by certain percentages their groups.
But one important thing is being pro life. Not all care about the holy war some evangelicals are going nuts over because they live in the country and if New York goes to hell it really don’t effect them and they will never vote for a New York City Mayor that is pro choice anyway. Are you kidding me? People are underestimating anti city and anti abortion sentiment in the rural areas. People might try to act all pious about it but its been prominent in the Republican Party for years.
Comment by PC — November 12, 2007 @ 3:29 pmBuckwheat,
I’d ask you to prove anything you’ve said about me, but I know you can’t and you know you can’t
So, basicially, I’m just ignoring you.
Comment by Doug Mataconis — November 12, 2007 @ 4:22 pmLook all, the POTS are good to get him into the rigged Iowa Fake Noise debate. Otherwise, fuggedabodit!
Lay off Doug, too. He could simply shut down the site with a slam post if he wanted. He may be skeptical quite a bit, but he’s fair.
Last, remember there is a wildcard in play now, which is the nationwide lawsuit in play to force all the states to go to paper ballots or suspend their primaries until they do. We the People Foundaton finished serving the legal papers today. The impact of that is still very much unknown.
Comment by Tannim — November 12, 2007 @ 5:49 pmMost polls have a +/- 5% confidence. So RP’s numbers COULD be way higher and everyone else’s COULD be lower. Plus aren’t 60% of NH voters still saying they are undecided? GO RON PAUL!
Comment by anzman — November 12, 2007 @ 9:31 pmMaybe the skeptics, that think Dr. Paul doesn’t have a chance, should go and check out the Gambling sites that are the ONLY ones that put their money where their mouth is.
They have Dr. Paul as the best choice to BEAT Godzillary in the election. I would trust them a hell of a lot more than any Biased Media and their UNFAIR polling system.
Why do you think the MSM is NOT reporting on the NEWS that Dr. Paul has WON more than 50% of ALL the Straw Polls.
If they reported that then people would definitely KNOW something is WRONG with their polls since people actually voted in Straw Polls and a lot more than what they polled.
As for Ghouliana once the public hears the truth about how his non-actions caused the deaths of hundreds of Courageous Firemen he will be lucky if people don’t lynch him let alone NOT VOTE for him.
The site below has the TRUTH about Ghouliana.
http://therealrudy.org/radios?utm_source=rgemail
Ghouliana’s past is starting to catch up with him.
ONLY A Doctor WILL HEAL Our Country,
Comment by Freedom4America — November 12, 2007 @ 10:15 pmFreedom4America
So Rudy was criminally negligent in ordering Motorola radios? That’s like the proverbial “you’ll never get fired ordering IBM”. And Rudy himself ordered the radio? No oversight or input from any of the chiefs?
The video you link is pure pap. Eric Gioia is a liberal Democrat – at the very least visit his site if you’re going to use him as a source. Let’s try to get past the conspiracy stuff, at least here; remember Occam’s razor.
Comment by Mack — November 13, 2007 @ 12:55 pmThe evangelicals may scatter for the moment… but after Ron Paul momentum builds steam, they will start to recognize him as the heir to Ronald Reagan and rally.
A Ronald Reagan candidacy was viewed by the mainstream press as radical and without a chance of sucess.
After Reagan won his first primary. He greeted the throng of cameras with his famous grin and said, “You can call me anything you like, as long as it begins with FRONTRUNNER.
Ron Paul was an early supporter of RR long before it was popular to do so. Like RR, he just might surprise the naysayers.
Right now he is right were he wants to be… frontrunner on the straw pols, internet pols, campaign contributions. Vast grassroots support building momentum. He is alone and on the correct side of the war, taxes, the constitution and government control of our lives. All of the other candidates are either unremarkable or remarkably similar thus all sharing the same unremarkable support base.
Based upon internet pols, straw pols and grass roots non- corporate campaign contributions he is the frontrunner, yet he gets to run as the underdog based upon the mainstream medias attempt to marginalize him. They have set the bar so low for him, he can ONLY surpass expectations and build momentum as he goes.
May God Bless Ron Paul with wisdom, health and the vision to return this country to the rule of law and the Constitutional republic.
Comment by davepaul — November 14, 2007 @ 1:47 amI’m a social conservative who’s lived in Europe (Spain, nice place, but 80% of the youth are atheist/agnostic and a great deal of the older ones too) and I’m afraid of the creeping atheism that’s now happening in America. The US has been a country with no backlash against religion, because there was no state religion.
The best thing we can do to preserve religion in America is following the constitutional blueprint our founding fathers have left us.
For me, Ron Paul is the guy who’ll keep God in America through free-will, the way the Lord intended it. By forcing people to be religious the opposite will happen.
Comment by Mike from NH — November 14, 2007 @ 6:51 am