Thoughts, essays, and writings on Liberty. Written by the heirs of Patrick Henry.

“There are more instances of the abridgement of the freedom of the people by the gradual and silent encroachment of those in power, than by violent and sudden usurpation.”     James Madison

November 19, 2007

Ron Paul In 4th Place In New Hampshire

by Doug Mataconis

The latest poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire has good news for Ron Paul and bad news for Fred Thompson:

WASHINGTON (CNN) – Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson has skidded into sixth place in a new CNN/WMUR poll of likely Republican voters in New Hampshire, edged out by ex-Libertarian and anti-war congressman Ron Paul and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney topped the poll, widening a lead he has held for months in neighboring New Hampshire, while Arizona Sen. John McCain and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani were running close in the second and third spots.

The CNN/WMUR poll was conducted by the University of New Hampshire between Wednesday and Sunday. Pollsters surveyed 404 Republican voters for the survey, which had a sampling error of 5 percentage points.

(…)

[T]he percentage of support for Paul grew from 4 percent to 8 percent, putting him fourth among the GOP contenders in the Granite State.

The Texas congressman, who once ran for president on the Libertarian Party ticket, has gained notice as the sole advocate of a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq among the GOP field — and he raised eyebrows in Washington earlier this month when supporters claimed to have raised $4.3 million in a single day of online fund-raising. The figure can’t be independently confirmed until Federal Election Commission reports are filed at the end of the year.

The results, then are as follows:

  1. Mitt Romney — 33%
  2. Rudy Giuliani — 16%
  3. John McCain — 16%
  4. Ron Paul — 8%
  5. Mike Huckabee — 5%
  6. Fred Thompson — 4%

This would seem to suggest that the television and radio advertisements that the campaign started running in the Granite State are starting to pay off. More importantly, though, these poll results clearly aren’t a fluke; they’re consistent with the latest polls from CBS/NY Times, The Boston Globe, and Marist.

The trends are moving in the right direction, but there needs to be a sustained move into double digits within the next several weeks if this is really going to develop into the opportunity that it could be.

On that note, I’ve been keeping an eye on the numbers on Intrade and the trend there has been going down since the beginning of November

New Hampshire represents an opportunity for this campaign to really turn into something, but it needs to do better than 4th place for that to happen.

Update: The other factor worth noting is Romney’s surge in the poll, increasing his lead by eight percentage points in two months, while he continues to poll well in Iowa. Republicans have spent several months assuming Giuliani was the man to beat, this seems to indicate that they should have been focusing on Romney.

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11 Comments

  1. Ron Paul is moving up faster than the polls are showing. He dominates in Straw Polls, Debate Polls, Fund Raising, Web Traffic and Grass Roots Networking. I have created a website to support this statement.

    Please visit http://www.thecaseforronpaul.com and judge for yourself.

    Comment by Cleaner44 — November 19, 2007 @ 3:48 pm
  2. Yes, Paul needs to make up some ground, but I think he’s got some momentum, especially if he starts beating Giuliani.

    The funny thing is how badly Romney polls nationwide, but how well he’s doing in the first states. One wonders if his low national numbers are just lack of knowledge of his stances or whether a few large population areas don’t like him. Romney is one of the few candidates outside of Paul I respect, if disagree with. He’s smooth and polished, but I think he would be alot less authoritarian than Giuliani and possibly less nanny statish than Huckabee. But maybe my comments are made in ignorance. I’ll still vote for Paul come primary time, but if it comes down to it, I think I could support Romney over Clinton rather than sitting out this one.

    Comment by Greg — November 19, 2007 @ 3:58 pm
  3. What amazes me is that Ron Paul even in the so called legit polls are showing substantial gains while most others are dropping in the polls.

    Nh is also primarily an Independent voter state and those people are not being polled. Also keep in mind the people Ron Paul is attracting have for the most part are people that have either never voted before or has stopped voting over many years, now keep that in mind, Traditional polls contact people via telephone that have voted in the past 2 years or more to which many Ron Paul supporters will not be on that list to be polled. He has also attracted many democrats that have sinse switched thier party to republican (myself being one of them)to which those people are not being polled.

    Considering Ron Paul has won 21 out of 41 srtaw polls and taken 2nd and rd in 12 more straw polls shows me that this years polling sytem is flawed.

    I expect primary day to shake a lot of people up.

    Comment by steve — November 19, 2007 @ 4:03 pm
  4. Steve why the shakeup. we’ve got a Patriot Act, National ID card and North American Union staring us straight in the face. With the EXCEPTION of Ron Paul we’ve got an abundance of candidates, most of which are affiliated with the Council on Foreign Relations that WILL pursue all the aforementioned. And your worried about a shakeup..I say it needs to be shaken now or the war rattle starts in our backyard! And high time!

    Comment by Keith — November 19, 2007 @ 4:18 pm
  5. Greg,

    Considering what Romney did to Massachusetts’ health care, I’ll pass on supporting him if he wins the nomination.

    http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=18322

    Comment by UCrawford — November 19, 2007 @ 4:48 pm
  6. Keep The Fire Of Liberty Lit And The Lost Will Find Their Way.

    Rock On Ron Paul !!!

    Comment by Brad — November 19, 2007 @ 4:57 pm
  7. Giuliani’s taken the beating and rightly so. The man has an insane good vs. evil foreign policy, and his relationship with his subordinates is entirely built on loyalty. It’d be the Dick Cheney administration on crack.

    I’d vote for any Republican over any Democrat in the hopes that the checks and balances in the Constitution works and nothing meaningful gets done. A Democratic Administration presiding over the current mood of protectionism really really scares me.

    Edwards would be my worst nightmare. Clinton is right up there besides him.

    Comment by TanGeng — November 19, 2007 @ 5:13 pm
  8. Doug,

    I can’t figure out how to email directly, so I’ll just post a comment.

    An interesting poll from Zogby will be released tomorrow (Tuesday) showing Ron Paul winning in a blind poll. They presented 4 candidates, labelled A-D and read a short paragraph about each without mentioning any candidates name. Dr. Paul took 32.8% of the vote.

    http://lettenyouknow.wordpress.com/2007/11/19/ron-paul-wins-nationwide-zogby-poll-by-double-digits/

    Comment by Brian T. Traylor — November 19, 2007 @ 7:48 pm
  9. UCrawford,

    There are good reasons not to support him, but there are better reasons to put a stop to Giuliani if Paul can’t break through. I doubt it will matter.

    Comment by Greg — November 20, 2007 @ 4:09 am
  10. Brian,

    I’ll wait to comment on that poll after I’ve seen in written about somewhere other than something called “Prison Planet” which ranks right up there with World Net Daily when it comes to credibility.

    Comment by Doug Mataconis — November 20, 2007 @ 4:49 am
  11. Doug, that poll is being talked about at Free Market News Network and is linked to a blog at Truthseeds.org., so get your fork out and start eating a little crow about the chances that Ron Paul has of winning (in your words zero chances). I certainly think that FMNN is credible but I know nothing about truthseeds.org. This poll done by Zogby, however, can’t be any worse than the other polls that you believe are doing a good job in predicting who is on top now. It is actually larger than most polls at over 1000 people. Granted this is a blind poll so they don’t mention a candidates name, so Paul still has some work to do to get better name recognition, but it shows the possiblities and at the very least his chances are better than zero as you seem to have thought.

    Comment by TerryP — November 20, 2007 @ 8:41 am

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