The Truth About The Blind Zogby Poll
There have been several comments here as well as posts from Lew Rockwell and Free Market News Network claiming that Ron Paul won a “blind” Zogby poll where voters were presented only with candidates biographies and stand on the issues.
Well, it ain’t entirely true folks. Asked of all voters, yes, Paul wins. Asked of RepublicaNs actually likely to vote in the primaries, it’s no. And since most states do not have crossover primaries, the value of a lot of Democratic support seems small.
Here’s the Zogby Press Release, issued today:
Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, long the favorite in nationwide samples of likely Republican voters in the 2008 race for the party’s presidential nomination, has the strongest resume of four top contenders, a new Zogby International survey shows.
The telephone survey, known as a “blind bio” poll because likely voters are given details of the candidates’ resumes without their names attached, shows Giuliani wins 34% support, compared to 22% each for Thompson and Romney. Ron Paul, who has surged recently in polls and has a significant online following, came in last with 13% support, while 9% said they were undecided on the question.
Only those four candidates were included in the question, which was commissioned by Jones Productions, a media company based in Austin, Texas. The survey included 389 likely Republican primary or caucus voters and was conducted Nov. 14–17, 2007. It carries a margin of error of +/– 5.1 percentage points.
The blind bio question was also posed to a larger pool of 1,009 likely voters nationwide, including Democrats and independents, and Paul was the big winner among that universe of voters, winning 33%, compared to 19% for Giuliani, 15% for Romney, and 13% for Thompson.
Full results here.