Comments on: Why Is Ron Paul Slipping On Intrade?

By: Chad

Chad — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 17:14:47 +0000

All 5.5 means to me is buy buy buy! :)

By: Chad

Chad — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 17:14:26 +0000

I’m guessing the 9 was a slightly inflated stock value due to the excitement leading up to the money bomb and the media hype following.

It’s natural that he’d slip a bit. Hopefully we’ll see a surge again soon.

By: amy childers

amy childers — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 15:31:57 +0000

The corporate run mainstream media(for instance Boeing sponsors Meet the Press)is pulling out all the stops to defeat Paul. Last night I watched the debate last night and was disgusted by how biased Anderson Cooper, host of the CNN/YouTube debate, is against Ron Paul. Paul’s ideas are very mainstream. He stands by the Constitution, and is for America and American citizens. The mass media just keeps trying to shove Huckabee, Romney and the other Republican neocons down the throat of the American people. The new stategy of corporate run media appears to be slandering Paul supporters as fringe dwellers and conspiracy theorists.

I am registering as a Republican so I can vote for Paul.

By: Mike

Mike — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 14:38:32 +0000

The traders saw some resistance to Ron Paul from the established as the establishment promoted Huckabee as an attempted foil to Ron Paul, so they got spooked. The traders have not seen anything. The Ron Paul movement will gain momentum as time goes forward and what will transpire will be huge.

By: James Bowery

James Bowery — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 14:23:40 +0000

When was the last time a third party run succeeded?

No, what the General Election number holding steady means is either that the market is confident he will do well in the General Election — if nominated — or traders are not doing the arbitrage between the two markets correctly.

See the electability graph:

http://ronpaulgraphs.com/intrade_electability_rep.html

By: Jim McClarin

Jim McClarin — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 14:23:08 +0000

Betters found better odds on at least one other online gaming site that zoomed from 1-18 to 1-6.

By: Kaligula

Kaligula — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 10:34:59 +0000

Paul is slipping in the Repub Nomin category on Intrade but he is holding steady on the General Election category. I think the Intrade numbers are confirming what I’ve been saying…Ron Paul is going to make an independent/3rd party run.

By: James Bowery

James Bowery — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 09:18:09 +0000

Well, no sooner do I say the Ron Paul campaign is missing the boat by not airing tv ads designed by their technically savvy and energetic supporters than they run this ad during the CNN debate tonight, independently produced by a supporter:

http://ronpaul2008.typepad.com/ron_paul_2008/2007/11/cnn-airs-ron-pa.html

By: rhys

rhys — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 07:38:42 +0000

I don’t think any of it matters. If you like his odds better than the price buy, if you don’t sell. The options markets are only a way to transfer risk. They do not really tell you anything meaningful except the level of risk that people find acceptable. Just like the price of stocks. If they really represented the value of a company, then nobody would be a consistent winner, and you wouldn’t have people like Jim Rogers or Warren Buffet. Options and futures markets are once removed from underlying value, so in effect they measure the perception of the publc about the amount of risk.

My point – the price will fluctuate up and down based upon the small amount of liquidity and perception of gamblers. But the price will be settled on voting day. Then, and only then, will we know if perception matched reality.

By: John

John — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 06:04:06 +0000

He had an IPO of sorts like the 90′s on Nov. 5. He hit hard, had a bubble, corrected… and now he’s at about correct value. His odds are high in bookmaking circles. real high.

By: Jeff Molby

Jeff Molby — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 05:30:21 +0000

The new polls are starting to come out, and Paul hasn’t moved any higher than he was 2 weeks ago.

Which?

You may say that’s not enough time, but we’re only about 5 weeks away from Iowa and 6 weeks away from New Hampshire. The die is being cast.

It isn’t a meaningful block of time. The mid-month polls were the first to show the result of 11/5 and it was clear that he got a healthy bump. If the new polls are showing the same numbers, that just means the gains were real. Nothing happened during the interval and he was just rolling out his first advertising, which only aired in a couple states. It would be silly to expect anything more than a fractional increase.

I’ve been saying it for awhile, now. December will tell the story. He’ll exceed his $12m goal soon and the Tea Party is shaping up to top 11/5 handily. Both events combined with the advertising expenditures will boost awareness of his campaign to the point where we can make informed judgments of his chances.

Until then, you’re just being Deputy Downer.

By: PC

PC — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 04:48:53 +0000

Profit taking, you get a boom, bust, boom, bust. Good news raises it and no news or the disclaimer he can’t win over time pushes him down. It happened in 06 when all the pundits and polls said that the Dems were not going to take the Senate. Media effects the market on Intrade and the media have been off for a couple of years now.

By: James Adams

James Adams — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 04:34:07 +0000

I’ve been scratching my head over this as well. The only conclusion that seems to make sense is that most the people on intrade are well to do, compared to the everyday guys on the other betting sites. Thus their getting less action on Paul at Intrade. Least that is my theory. Either way, it works good for me. Wanting to pick up a few more shares soon. =)

By: Skip

Skip — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 04:32:13 +0000

The Huckmonster: The slickest of slick Baptist preachers. He shared a political consultant with Bill Clinton: Dick Morris in 1992-1994. Clinton forced Morris to quit Huckabee. Mike is a well planned out political barracuda—no difference between Bill Clinton and Mike Huckabee other than pro choice vs. pro life. I know. I am an Arkansan; I worked with and contributed to Huckabee’s campaigns. He should be running as a pro life Democrat.

By: Doug Mataconis

Doug Mataconis — Thu, 29 Nov 2007 04:31:24 +0000

TanGeng,

Which means that there’s a 94.5 probability that the Republican nominee will not be Ron Paul, right ?