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January 3, 2008

Pre-Caucus Open Thread And Predictions

by Doug Mataconis

Here is my best educated guess of how things will pan out at the end of the night tonight. This is just order of finish, not percentages. On that end, I think we’ll see some pretty tight numbers between 3rd through 5th place on the Republican side and among the top three on the Democratic side. Depending on turnout, the order could easily be different.

Republicans:

  1. Mike Huckabee
  2. Mitt Romney
  3. John McCain
  4. Ron Paul
  5. Fred Thompson
  6. Rudy Giuliani

Democrats:

  1. Barack Obama
  2. Hillary Clinton
  3. John Edwards
  4. Bill Richardson
  5. Joe Biden
  6. Chris Dodd

Feel free to criticize my guesses and make your own, and we’ll all check back tomorrow.

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12 Comments

  1. If Ron Paul finishes third in Iowa he will be the big story on the Republican side heading into New Hampshire.

    Comment by Ken H — January 3, 2008 @ 6:43 am
  2. Republican:
    1)Huckabee
    2)Romney
    3)McCain
    4)Thompson
    5)Paul
    6)Giuliani
    7)Hunter

    The religious right beats Romney’s organization. 3-5 is very close, 3rd might only be 2% higher than 5th.

    Democrats:
    1)Obama
    2)Edwards
    3)Clinton
    4)Richardson
    5)Biden
    6)Dodd

    I’m hearing about a late surge for Edwards and a late fade by Clinton.

    Comment by Bob — January 3, 2008 @ 9:10 am
  3. Ron Paul will take third. I think his followers have a greater chance of showing up at the polls than the other candidates, but huckabee will get at least a quarter of the vote. Ill be surprised if Hunter even gets one vote.

    Comment by David Wilson — January 3, 2008 @ 9:14 am
  4. Republican:

    1)Huckabee
    2)Romney
    3)McCain
    4)Thompson
    5)Paul
    6)Giuliani
    7)Hunter

    It will be end of the road for Thompson, should be the end of the road for Hunter, and the beginning of the end for Romney.

    Democrat:

    1)Obama
    2)Edwards
    3)Clinton
    4)Richardson
    5)Biden
    6)Dodd
    7)Kucinich

    Biden, Dodd, Richardson, and Clinton are done after tonight.

    Comment by Kevin — January 3, 2008 @ 11:36 am
  5. From a Reuters poll: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22485901/

    “In the Republican race, Mike Huckabee expanded his lead to six points, 31 to 25 percent, over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the one-time leader in Iowa who has attacked Huckabee for his record as Arkansas governor.

    Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson is in third place in the Republican race at 11 percent and Arizona Sen. John McCain slipped two points to 10 percent. Texas Rep. Ron Paul also registered 10 percent.”

    Comment by Ryan — January 3, 2008 @ 12:16 pm
  6. David,

    How well Paul does depends on where independents go tonight. His core level of support isn’t strong enough to put him into 3rd place, but enough support from independent voters might do it.

    From what I’ve read, though, it sounds like independents are breaking heavily for Obama — which, if true, would be bad news for Hillary.

    Comment by Doug Mataconis — January 3, 2008 @ 1:16 pm
  7. His core level of support isn’t strong enough to put him into 3rd place, but enough support from independent voters might do it.

    From what I’ve read, though, it sounds like independents are breaking heavily for Obama — which, if true, would be bad news for Hillary.

    Plus factor in also that most independents are voting the Democratic caucus this year to back Obama, so Ron Paul will probably not do any better than 5th.

    Comment by Kevin — January 3, 2008 @ 1:43 pm
  8. I hope that you guys will be proven wrong on this one. I think with the fanaticism of Ron Paul’s supporters, and with enough push from first-time and independent voters, he might just pull off that 3rd-place finish.

    Either way, it will tell us whether the claims by those Paul supporters about the polls being inaccurate are legitimate.

    Comment by Brad Warbiany — January 3, 2008 @ 4:49 pm
  9. Brad,

    Based on what I’m seeing so far tonight, it seems that I was far too optimistic and that Kevin was right.

    Comment by Doug Mataconis — January 3, 2008 @ 7:41 pm
  10. Brad,

    Either way, it will tell us whether the claims by those Paul supporters about the polls being inaccurate are legitimate.

    Paul’s results were within the margin of error of most polls and especially Real Clear Politics average. However, Iowa won’t be the test; New Hampshire will be.

    Doug,

    Based on what I’m seeing so far tonight, it seems that I was far too optimistic and that Kevin was right.

    Well if it makes you feel better, it’s looking like I was off on the battle for third, narrowly. But Thompson may still be dead anyway.

    Comment by Kevin — January 3, 2008 @ 8:04 pm
  11. Kevin was right?!? How about me? Kevin’s predications were the same as mine and I posted before him. :-)

    Comment by Bob — January 3, 2008 @ 8:26 pm
  12. Bob,

    Fine, you win :)

    Comment by Kevin — January 3, 2008 @ 8:28 pm

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