Comments on: Pre-Caucus Open Thread And Predictions http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/03/pre-caucus-open-thread-and-predictions/ Life. Liberty. Property. Defending individual freedom and liberty, one post at a time. Wed, 22 May 2013 03:02:43 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.5.1 By: Kevin http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/03/pre-caucus-open-thread-and-predictions/#comment-48376 Kevin Fri, 04 Jan 2008 04:28:37 +0000 http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/03/pre-caucus-open-thread-and-predictions/#comment-48376 Bob,

Fine, you win :)

]]> By: Bob http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/03/pre-caucus-open-thread-and-predictions/#comment-48375 Bob Fri, 04 Jan 2008 04:26:25 +0000 http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/03/pre-caucus-open-thread-and-predictions/#comment-48375 Kevin was right?!? How about me? Kevin’s predications were the same as mine and I posted before him. :-)

]]> By: Kevin http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/03/pre-caucus-open-thread-and-predictions/#comment-48374 Kevin Fri, 04 Jan 2008 04:04:27 +0000 http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/03/pre-caucus-open-thread-and-predictions/#comment-48374 Brad,

Either way, it will tell us whether the claims by those Paul supporters about the polls being inaccurate are legitimate.

Paul’s results were within the margin of error of most polls and especially Real Clear Politics average. However, Iowa won’t be the test; New Hampshire will be.

Doug,

Based on what I’m seeing so far tonight, it seems that I was far too optimistic and that Kevin was right.

Well if it makes you feel better, it’s looking like I was off on the battle for third, narrowly. But Thompson may still be dead anyway.

]]> By: Doug Mataconis http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/03/pre-caucus-open-thread-and-predictions/#comment-48373 Doug Mataconis Fri, 04 Jan 2008 03:41:55 +0000 http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/03/pre-caucus-open-thread-and-predictions/#comment-48373 Brad,

Based on what I’m seeing so far tonight, it seems that I was far too optimistic and that Kevin was right.

]]> By: Brad Warbiany http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/03/pre-caucus-open-thread-and-predictions/#comment-48368 Brad Warbiany Fri, 04 Jan 2008 00:49:21 +0000 http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/03/pre-caucus-open-thread-and-predictions/#comment-48368 I hope that you guys will be proven wrong on this one. I think with the fanaticism of Ron Paul’s supporters, and with enough push from first-time and independent voters, he might just pull off that 3rd-place finish.

Either way, it will tell us whether the claims by those Paul supporters about the polls being inaccurate are legitimate.

]]> By: Kevin http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/03/pre-caucus-open-thread-and-predictions/#comment-48352 Kevin Thu, 03 Jan 2008 21:43:24 +0000 http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/03/pre-caucus-open-thread-and-predictions/#comment-48352

His core level of support isn’t strong enough to put him into 3rd place, but enough support from independent voters might do it.

From what I’ve read, though, it sounds like independents are breaking heavily for Obama — which, if true, would be bad news for Hillary.

Plus factor in also that most independents are voting the Democratic caucus this year to back Obama, so Ron Paul will probably not do any better than 5th.

]]> By: Doug Mataconis http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/03/pre-caucus-open-thread-and-predictions/#comment-48351 Doug Mataconis Thu, 03 Jan 2008 21:16:44 +0000 http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/03/pre-caucus-open-thread-and-predictions/#comment-48351 David,

How well Paul does depends on where independents go tonight. His core level of support isn’t strong enough to put him into 3rd place, but enough support from independent voters might do it.

From what I’ve read, though, it sounds like independents are breaking heavily for Obama — which, if true, would be bad news for Hillary.

]]> By: Ryan http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/03/pre-caucus-open-thread-and-predictions/#comment-48350 Ryan Thu, 03 Jan 2008 20:16:22 +0000 http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/03/pre-caucus-open-thread-and-predictions/#comment-48350 From a Reuters poll: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22485901/

“In the Republican race, Mike Huckabee expanded his lead to six points, 31 to 25 percent, over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the one-time leader in Iowa who has attacked Huckabee for his record as Arkansas governor.

Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson is in third place in the Republican race at 11 percent and Arizona Sen. John McCain slipped two points to 10 percent. Texas Rep. Ron Paul also registered 10 percent.”

]]> By: Kevin http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/03/pre-caucus-open-thread-and-predictions/#comment-48349 Kevin Thu, 03 Jan 2008 19:36:12 +0000 http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/03/pre-caucus-open-thread-and-predictions/#comment-48349 Republican:

1)Huckabee
2)Romney
3)McCain
4)Thompson
5)Paul
6)Giuliani
7)Hunter

It will be end of the road for Thompson, should be the end of the road for Hunter, and the beginning of the end for Romney.

Democrat:

1)Obama
2)Edwards
3)Clinton
4)Richardson
5)Biden
6)Dodd
7)Kucinich

Biden, Dodd, Richardson, and Clinton are done after tonight.

]]> By: David Wilson http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/03/pre-caucus-open-thread-and-predictions/#comment-48348 David Wilson Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:14:43 +0000 http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/03/pre-caucus-open-thread-and-predictions/#comment-48348 Ron Paul will take third. I think his followers have a greater chance of showing up at the polls than the other candidates, but huckabee will get at least a quarter of the vote. Ill be surprised if Hunter even gets one vote.

]]> By: Bob http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/03/pre-caucus-open-thread-and-predictions/#comment-48347 Bob Thu, 03 Jan 2008 17:10:13 +0000 http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/03/pre-caucus-open-thread-and-predictions/#comment-48347 Republican:
1)Huckabee
2)Romney
3)McCain
4)Thompson
5)Paul
6)Giuliani
7)Hunter

The religious right beats Romney’s organization. 3-5 is very close, 3rd might only be 2% higher than 5th.

Democrats:
1)Obama
2)Edwards
3)Clinton
4)Richardson
5)Biden
6)Dodd

I’m hearing about a late surge for Edwards and a late fade by Clinton.

]]> By: Ken H http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/03/pre-caucus-open-thread-and-predictions/#comment-48343 Ken H Thu, 03 Jan 2008 14:43:26 +0000 http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/01/03/pre-caucus-open-thread-and-predictions/#comment-48343 If Ron Paul finishes third in Iowa he will be the big story on the Republican side heading into New Hampshire.

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