Once again, I agree with your assessment of the current situation, but your prediction of the future still rests on the fundamental assumption that Paul has peaked or soon will.

Maybe you’re right this time, but you don’t really have any credibility on the matter.

We’re right where we need to be. Go back a few months and review my posts. We’re continuing our steady ascent. In most races, it would be too little, too late, but this isn’t most races. There’s so much turmoil at the top, we still have time to grow.

But the RINO’s see Romney as an acceptable replacement for Rudy, as they just want to make sure the neocons have a good chance of winning, hence the life being sucked out Rudy’s polls. Meanwhile, those mad at all the candidates may give Ron a boost, especially if Obama is already shown winning by a large percentage.

But there are enough RINOs in New Hampshire to swing 4th for Rudy. Plus, I see no evidence to show that Paul has enough Republican voters to offset the losses he’ll suffer because of left-leaning independents going to Obama.

Keep in mind in states where Paul is not campaigning, his numbers are essentially the same as the national numbers, but where he goes, his numbers edge up. While I don’t think it could be enough, he’s already shown that he can get delegates, just not the majority. Nobody said this was going to be easy and the talking heads may be right that the message just won’t convince enough people, but while they’re saying to the public everything’s fine within the republican party, inside the republican leaders should be worried that the republican base is this fractured.

Based on the most recent polling data, Paul is in 4th or 5th place in each of the states mentioned.

“outside of the Granite State, there isn’t any state in the country where Paul seems likely to come in third, never mind win.”

makes an assumption it should not make. Based on locality of donation support, meetup group size and number of volunteers, Ron Paul’s strongest states are IL, IN, OH, MI, NY, TX and CA. The MI and February 5th primaries will be the telling tale, not tomorrow’s election.

As Duncan Hunter will probably drop out after tomorrow, look for Paul support to pick up in border states as well.

The analysis stated in the essay is based on past elections. Historical data doesn’t apply in a race without an incumbent running, something most pundits have forgotten as it’s been decades since we had such a race.

Giuliani’s trend is spiraling downward and I can’t see Paul failing to beat him

McCain – 32
Romney – 24
Huckabee – 18
Paul – 12
Giuliani – 8
Thompson – 4

Polling indicates that Giuliani is falling like a cement shoed rat in popularity in both the national and state polls. With a record of loxing so badly in Iowa and New Hampshite, I can’t see him recover. Thompson was fauned over by the media and republican establishment, but cured their insomnia. Huckabee is still exciting to many frustrated conservatives, but will be understood as a flash in the pan when the bigger states start voting. Romney is a weasel, but he’s a very suave weasel and might slime his way to the front, but I think conservatives are coming to settle on McCain, who everybody agrees they don’t like, but dislike less than the alternatives.

Republicans: McCain, Romney, Paul (by a hair), Huckabee, Giuliani, Thompson. Paul will get a higher percentage of his supporters to the polls than Huckabee, which will get him the third place spot. As with the Dems, the big question is by how much McCain will win. Anything more than 3 or 4 points, and Romney is officially toast.

Here is a great preview from the NY Times explaining how the independents have increased since 2000 largely because NH is a state that allows only independents to cross-party vote. The article is not favorable to McCain or Romney and one can hardly believe that Huckabee could fair very well. It does read well for Obama. Dr No. is curiously omitted from this analysis; article was written before raising 20 mil.

No disagreement.

Republicans:

1) McCain
2) Romney
3) Huckabee
4) Giuliani
5) Paul
6) Thompson

McCain has the Republican-leaning independents locked up. Michigan will be do or die for Mitt Romney. Huckabee has surged enough to pick up a strong 3rd. Paul will fall to 5th because he is counting on at this point left-leaning independent voters to show up for him. My evidence is his debate performance Saturday night where he sounded like at times, a leftist. Unfortunately for him, they’re going to show up for Obama.

You may turn out to be right on the 3-4 order on the GOP side. The latest Rasmussen poll shows Paul falling behind Huckabee and Giuliani in 5th place.

I’m still going with my optimism on that one, though.

If the Rasmussen poll turns out to be closer to reality, though, then we’re looking at the beginning of the end.