Thoughts, essays, and writings on Liberty. Written by the heirs of Patrick Henry.

“I swear, by my life and my love of it, that I will never live for the sake of another man, nor ask another man to live for mine.”     Ayn Rand

January 14, 2008

Michigan Predictions And Monday Open Thread

by Doug Mataconis

I haven’t exactly been accurate on my predictions for the primary season so far, but with only one race to worry about, maybe I’ll get it right this time.

The Republicans should turn out as follows:

  1. John McCain
  2. Mitt Romney
  3. Mike Huckabee
  4. Fred Thompson
  5. Ron Paul
  6. Rudy Giuliani

Current polls have McCain and Romney virtually tied, so that order could go either way. In the end, though, I think that McCain will pull of a win in the Wolverine State, where he also won in 2000.

As always, feel free to criticize

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17 Comments

  1. Predictions:

    1) Mitt Romney (He’s regained the lead in the most recent polls and in the daily tracking polls. He’ll also be helped by the Kos Kidz campaign to get Dems to vote for him.)
    2) John McCain
    3) Mike Huckabee (though 1-3 will be close)
    4) Ron Paul (also helped by Democrats)
    5) Rudy Giuliani
    6) Fred Thompson

    Basically, I expect Michigan to keep everyone alive.

    Comment by Kevin — January 14, 2008 @ 1:24 pm
  2. Kevin,

    You may well be right about Romney, it’s going to be close at the top.

    As for Paul, I took him down a peg because he hasn’t visited MI since the voting started and is spending his time in Nevada. I also haven’t heard about any media buys up there.

    Actually, I’m trying to figure out what the campaign is doing with the $ 20 million it raised last quarter.

    Comment by Doug Mataconis — January 14, 2008 @ 1:29 pm
  3. Doug,

    By now, hopefully spending it on hookers and blow, because they’re just along for the ride now.

    Comment by Greg — January 14, 2008 @ 3:09 pm
  4. Greg,

    Unless Ron Paul drops out of the race and uses the $ 20 million to help the campaigns of pro-liberty candidates for Senate, Congress, and state legislatures, your suggestion is probably the most productive thing they could do with the money.

    Comment by Doug Mataconis — January 14, 2008 @ 3:15 pm
  5. Doug,

    Unless Ron Paul drops out of the race and uses the $ 20 million to help the campaigns of pro-liberty candidates for Senate, Congress, and state legislatures, your suggestion is probably the most productive thing they could do with the money.

    Given the definition of “pro-liberty” that the Paul campaign is working from….that’s probably not a good idea.

    Comment by Kevin — January 14, 2008 @ 3:53 pm
  6. Doug,

    “Actually, I’m trying to figure out what the campaign is doing with the $ 20 million it raised last quarter.”

    I’ve been wondering about that too. They bring in a substantial amount of cash, but it doesn’t appear to be going anywhere. They’re certainly not spending it on quality advertising, and most of the active support still appears to be free grassroots stuff not started by the campaign and television spots they’re not paying for. What the fuck are they spending it on?

    I have this nagging fear that after the election is over there’s going to be an unflattering audit that demonstrates just how bad Paul’s character judgments are. Hopefully I’m wrong, but a local Democratic blogger back in November discussed what he saw at a Ron Paul campaign event and I can’t say as I’ve seen much change in their MO since then:

    http://indigentahole.blogspot.com/2007/11/going-undercover-at-ron-paul-campaign.html

    Comment by UCrawford — January 14, 2008 @ 4:27 pm
  7. Kevin basically has it right:

    1A)Romney
    1B)McCain
    3)Huckabee
    4A)Paul
    4B)Guiliani
    6)Thompson

    What is Paul doing with all that money? Is it possible that he’s hording it for a reason? I suspect he knows donations are going to dry up and he’s planning on have a campaign of sorts all the way to the convention.

    Comment by Bob — January 14, 2008 @ 4:47 pm
  8. Or Bob, he could be carrying it over to his Congressional campaign.

    Comment by Kevin — January 14, 2008 @ 4:53 pm
  9. UCrawford,

    I wouldn’t worry about any illegal uses of the money, just overspending on poor commercials, bad air dates and a few too many campaign YooHoos.

    Seriously though, if Paul mailed me and asked me what he should spend my portion of the 20 million on, I’d tell him to quit the presidential race go on vacation, come back, hire a real campaign staff for his congressional bid and pound Chris Peden into absolute oblivion for no reason other than that man needs a thorough ass pounding.

    Comment by Greg — January 14, 2008 @ 5:30 pm
  10. Bob,

    “What is Paul doing with all that money? Is it possible that he’s hording it for a reason?”

    The blogger I linked to said that he got the impression that the Paul campaign was saving it for the later primaries (Super Tuesday) at the expense of the earlier primaries. When someone in the audience asked the Paul representatives why they’d do that when the race is usually decided by the early primaries they apparently didn’t get much more than a blank stare. That pretty much gibes with my impression that the official Paul campaign (the paid staff, not just the grassroots people) consist primarily of amateurs who don’t have a clue what the fuck they’re doing…they aren’t doing much of anything with Michigan and they’ve gotten hostile reactions in South Carolina that they aren’t doing much to change. They seem to be sitting on the cash in the hopes of making a push on Super Tuesday, but at the rate they’re going Ron Paul will be well out of the race by then so they might as well go the hookers and blow route or give the cash to other campaigns for all the good it’s going to do.

    Basically, they’ve violated one of the central tenets of politics…they let the opposition define them to the public before they defined themselves (see Goldwater v. LBJ). Ron Paul hasn’t spent the money to sell himself to the mainstream, he did a terrible job of handling the racist articles, so now people see him as a racist crackpot running a campaign supported by racist crackpots. That’s what bad managerial qualities and loyalty to an incompetent staff will get you in politics. Ron Paul is a decent Representative, but he has no business running for President because he can’t get away with the same crap in a national election that he’s been getting away with running in his Congressional district.

    Comment by UCrawford — January 14, 2008 @ 5:45 pm
  11. Greg,

    “I wouldn’t worry about any illegal uses of the money, just overspending on poor commercials, bad air dates and a few too many campaign YooHoos.”

    You’re probably right.

    “Seriously though, if Paul mailed me and asked me what he should spend my portion of the 20 million on, I’d tell him to quit the presidential race go on vacation, come back, hire a real campaign staff for his congressional bid and pound Chris Peden into absolute oblivion for no reason other than that man needs a thorough ass pounding.”

    No argument there…from what I’ve seen Paul’s a good representative and I think that’s the best location for him in national politics. He doesn’t hold up so well under national scrutiny but I think Congress is much better off with him than without him. Seems like this campaign has been a prime example of the Peter Principle for him.

    Comment by UCrawford — January 14, 2008 @ 5:49 pm
  12. UCrawford,

    Even with his poor management and somewhat out there campaign platforms, he’s still getting 5-10% of the primary vote consistantly, beating Giuliani and Thompson. That’s got to say something about what he’s hit on as far as a frustrated base. People worry about what he’ll do to libertarianism, but I think in the end is they’ll remember some of his best moments in the debates and wonder if maybe he had a few bright ideas. This primary was better with him than without him and I think he’s made all the points he needed to make about the growing prospect of libertarian/small federal government ideas. He’s done what I paid him to do, so let’s call this mission accomplished and get back to the business of growing the brand.

    I still think despite the misgivings about his “newsletters” that the whole thing will come out in the wash because nobody ever really accused him of being racist and none of the major arguments were about that. The libersphere kinda panicked a bit and worried about the campaign’s poor handling of it, but I don’t think it ever got mixed up with his message and therefore tainted libertarianism, so I think we really do have a chance of building upon his successes and patching up some of the failures.

    Comment by Greg — January 14, 2008 @ 6:35 pm
  13. Perhaps his comments about the collapse of the dollar and the credit crunch and runaway inflation haven’t hit home for very many people. I certainly have a myopic view of politics; that is, that everyone is as interested as me. I had to explain to my Dad how inflating the M3 causes prices to rise and that inflation is a consequence not a cause.

    Even accounting for his faults (and no one is perfect anyhow), maybe the time is not yet right for a revolutionary candidate, one campaigning to cut 40% of federal revenue and spending, pull troops home from overseas, end the war on drugs, and allow competing currencies.

    Maybe we need to go further down the rabbit hole before the polity decides that we’re really in trouble.

    Comment by Brian T. Traylor — January 15, 2008 @ 12:42 pm
  14. Pardon the mistake:

    …that inflation is a consequence cause not a consequence.

    Comment by Brian T. Traylor — January 15, 2008 @ 12:44 pm
  15. Pardon the mistake:

    …that inflation is the consequence cause, not the cause consequence.

    Comment by Brian T. Traylor — January 15, 2008 @ 12:45 pm
  16. Well, it looks like I was right (again). Except for 5 and 6.

    Comment by Kevin — January 16, 2008 @ 11:43 am
  17. Kevin,

    One day I’m going to stop making these predictions ;)

    Comment by Doug Mataconis — January 16, 2008 @ 11:43 am

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