Thoughts, essays, and writings on Liberty. Written by the heirs of Patrick Henry.

January 16, 2008

Wednesday Open Thread: So, Now What ?

by Doug Mataconis

With Mitt Romney’s win in Michigan last night, we are now at the point where three separate candidates have won the first three contests of the Republican Nomination race. Hucabkee won Iowa, McCain won New Hampshire, and Romney surprised everyone with a strong win in Michigan.

So, what happens next ?

Mitt Romney: A win in Michigan means that Romney is in the race for awhile. Had he lost, it would have been hard to justify staying in through Super Tuesday.  Right now, he’s locked in a four way tie in Florida and a victory there could put him in the front of the pack.

John McCain: If McCain had won in Michigan, he would have had a strong claim to the title of Republican frontrunner. Now, he’s got to win in South Carolina and keep Giuliani from winning in Florida if he’s going to  have a shot at the nomination.

Mike Huckabee:  Tax Hike Mike is competitive with McCain in South Carolina and part of the four way tie in Florida. But I can’t help have the nagging feeling that he peaked too early.

Fred Thompson: Last week, after New Hampshire, he said that South Carolina was a do or die state for him. Well, barring a miracle over the next three days, it looks like he’s going to die. Look for Thompson to drop out and endorse his buddy McCain.

Rudy Giuliani: If Huckabee peaked too early last month, Giuliani’s mistake was bigger because he peaked last year. He’s been on the decline everywhere ever since the voting started and, unless he pulls of a win in Florida, is not going  to be a factor going forward. Heck, Giuliani can’t even beat Ron Paul.

Ron Paul: The Paul campaign did do better in Michigan than it has elsewhere in one respect; it was the first time they’ve made it to fourth place. In terms of overall percentage of the vote, though, they’ve gone downhill from the start — 10% in Iowa, just under 8% in New Hampshire, and 6% in Michigan. I don’t see things getting any better any time soon. In both Nevada and South Carolina, he’s polling at the bottom of the pack. The same is true of Florida.

As always, feel free to disagree.

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  • Dung

    Hey we’re doing better overall than the national front-runner!

  • http://thelibertypapers.org/2005/11/22/a-bit-about-kevin/ Kevin

    Dung (appropriate name),

    Actually, Paul has not beaten McCain anywhere.

  • http://dangerouslyidealistic.blogspot.com/ UCrawford

    It makes me happy to know that although the candidate with the most libertarian platform is getting his butt kicked in the race because he can’t put together a competent staff, Guiliani still can’t beat him.

    Somehow I don’t think it’s a fluke that mayors of NYC don’t move on to higher offices.

  • Dave

    And Ron Paul moves steadily up the ladder. Before it’s all over, he could very well take the nomination. The more people that hear his message, and look up his voting history, the higher he will continue to climb. Solid 4th, beating 2 former ‘frontrunners’ (Rudy(again)and Fred(again)!), after only 3 votes and 47 to go…we’ll take it and run w/ it. It will only get him more, much needed (and hopefully unbiased this time), media attention. Once he’s on equal footing w/ the rest of the pack, he will begin to pull away. GOD BLESS RON PAUL!!

  • tony DUNGee

    Whoah whoah, because “dung” is obviously a “paulistian,” you consider him to be shit? that’s pretty hardcore. Then again, this place has gotten so hardcore (in both directions) and polarized about Paul now that it’s basically in the middle of an identity crisis anyway.

  • http://www.orderhotlunch.com Jeff Molby

    You forgot one other thing, Doug. It was also his highest vote total.

    Speaking as someone who has been immersed in the Michigan campaign, I’ll take a weak 4th. This state has been an absolute disaster for the Paul campaign. He didn’t even come here this week because it looked like we’d get our clocks cleaned.

    There has been so much turmoil here (some inside the campaign and some outside) that we had no experienced leadership at any point in time. Minor correction: there was a day in September when the national field coordinator came to give us advice and he was shouted down by well-intentioned amateurs. In hindsight, he was clearly right.

    Here’s hoping the other states are doing better. They’d pretty much have to be.

  • http://www.belowthebeltway.com Doug Mataconis

    Dave,

    And Ron Paul moves steadily up the ladder. Before it’s all over, he could very well take the nomination.

    Of this I am sure. That’s not gonna happen. No way. No how.

  • http://www.belowthebeltway.com Doug Mataconis

    Jeff,

    More votes ? Well, Michigan is a more populous state than Iowa or N.H. so that’s not surprising.

  • http://dangerouslyidealistic.blogspot.com/ UCrawford

    Jeff,

    There has been so much turmoil here (some inside the campaign and some outside) that we had no experienced leadership at any point in time.

    I’m very sorry to say that from what I’ve heard lately that appears to have been the rule and not the exception…in most states. Kudos to the sane volunteers who worked to get their candidate out there, because I think they did a great job with what they had to work with. Frankly I don’t think their candidate has done them any favors at all with his national organization and its “professional” staff…and that’s on Ron Paul. That’s also why I’ve changed my mind about his acceptability as a Presidential candidate.

  • http://dangerouslyidealistic.blogspot.com/ UCrawford

    Jeff,

    Also, good to see you back here…I’d hoped you hadn’t ducked out on us for good.

  • http://www.orderhotlunch.com Jeff Molby

    More votes ? Well, Michigan is a more populous state than Iowa or N.H. so that’s not surprising.

    I didn’t say it was cause for headlines; I just pointed out your oversight.

    Frankly I don’t think their candidate has done them any favors at all with his national organization and its “professional” staff…and that’s on Ron Paul.

    Agreed. I have reason to believe that this changed a couple weeks ago. It wasn’t in time to help us, but they might just be able to right the ship in time for Super Tuesday.

    Remember, we’re the only ones with the resources (cash and manpower) to work hard in all of those states.

    Also, good to see you back here…I’d hoped you hadn’t ducked out on us for good.

    Nope. Just had to focus on the task at hand. I’ll take a bit of a break and then I’ll be back.

  • http://dangerouslyidealistic.blogspot.com/ UCrawford

    Jeff,

    Best of luck to you. Catch you later.

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