Thoughts, essays, and writings on Liberty. Written by the heirs of Patrick Henry.

January 19, 2008

Nevada and South Carolina Wrap-Up

by Kevin Boyd

Well, on the Republican side Mitt Romney won Nevada (uncontested) and John McCain won South Carolina.

The Republican race finally narrows with departure of Duncan Hunter and the probable departure of Fred Thompson after his third place finish in South Carolina.

Now for the rest:

John McCain: He has the momentum going into Florida. Basically, if McCain wins Florida, he’ll win the nomination.

Mitt Romney: Romney’s three golds as he likes to portray them have a bit of tarnish to them. Two of them (Wyoming and Nevada) were uncontested for all intents and purposes. Furthermore, the Wyoming Caucus was dominated by party hacks who are mostly supporting Romney. Plus, Romney was the native son in Michigan. However, his poor showing in South Carolina shows that Romney’s support is very weak in the South. Florida is probably do or die for Romney.

Mike Huckabee: He’s dead but he probably doesn’t realize it.

Rudy Giuliani: He wins Florida, he’s still alive. He loses Florida, he’s dead.

Ron Paul: Despite winning 2nd in Nevada, Ron Paul is still dead.

Now for the Democrats, Nevada was so close that it was probably not important in the long term scheme of things. South Carolina will determine the momentum going into Super Tuesday.

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  • http://truthalert.net Mike

    Overall, Ron Paul is in fourth… http://truthalert.net/Republican%20Presidential%20Candidate%20Rankings.htm

    Thompson and Giuliani wish they were doing as well.

  • Tracy G.

    “Ron Paul: Despite winning 2nd in Nevada, Ron Paul is still dead.”

    And so is America if he doesn’t win.

    Very sad….for all of us.

  • http://thelibertypapers.org/2005/11/22/a-bit-about-kevin/ Kevin

    Mike,

    While your obviously spamming for your site; I just want to point out that 4th place does not make a nomination.

    Tracy G.,

    The country will survive Ron Paul’s election defeat.

  • uhm

    I’m starting to wish that we didn’t have term limits.

  • http://www.wcnet.org/~jamoore James Moore

    Ron Paul was declared dead from the start. You only say so because willingly or not, you are repeating a lie in hopes it will become reality.

    In spite of a majority of neocon blogger opinion-haters trying increasingly desperately to bring him down using every smear and dirty tactic they can muster, Ron Paul continues to slowly but surely creep up in certain statistics, like grassroots fundraising and boots on the ground canvassing for him.

    Check out the member totals in Meetup.com groups. Currently Ron Paul has just 2 members short of 100,000! The candidate with the next largest following on Meetup.com is Huckabee, with over 14,000. That’s about 186,000 less people willing to get out of the house for Huckabee, meet with other people, and try to get the word out. Does grassroots popularity mean anything? I daresay if John McCain or Mitt Romney had this kind of popular support, the neocon media would have already coronated one or both of them. Instead, they just keep pushing these candidates in our face while defaming Ron Paul, if they mention him at all.

    Ron Paul has an ARMY of concerned citizens behind him, and they and their money have been steadily growing in spite of major media’s best attempts to bury the message and the candidate.

    It will be interesting to see how the next Ron Paul Money Bomb turns out, on the day set aside to remember one of his heroes – Martin Luther King. Google Ron Paul Moneybomb to learn more and find out how to contribute. I hope we can break another record.

  • uhm

    Did you mean 200,000 or 86,000?

  • anonomous

    Let’s say RP doesn’t get the nomination. Since almost all of his campaign is grassroots, might it just continue on anyway?

  • Greg

    Giuliani might stop the free fall if he somehow wins Florida, but the momentum is pushing him down all the same. He’s about as dead as Huckabee even if he doesn’t realize it. You can’t ignore the first few states and expect a comeback. By the time Florida comes around, the polls might have him down in Paul range just because he’s already being portrayed as a loser (having lost to Paul in 4 out of 5 contests). I for one am relieved that Mr. 9/11 strategically erred because I would have vomited on the ballot if the choices came down to him, Clinton and Bloomberg.

  • Bob

    Kevin,
    I think Romney leads in delegates and contests won. He can afford to lose in Florida, as long as he’s competitive. I agree that Giuliani has to win Florida. Huckabee can hang around awhile and hope to get lucky its easier to find a way for him to win than it is for Thompson or Paul. While I agree that Paul doesn’t have a chance to win it is good to see him place 2nd somewhere.

    James,
    So far all those Meetup groups have gotten him 6 delegates. In 1980 John Conolly(sp?) raised $30M and got 1 delegate. At least Paul is doing better than him.

    anonomous,
    If you mean they would continue on as a force for liberty, I hope your right and I think that would make Paul’s campaign a success. But as a vehicle for Paul to run as an independent would be a waste. Paul would have no chance of winning or being invited to the debates.

  • Kay

    Actually, Thompson coming in third isn’t a terrible position at all – he’ll likely stay in thru 5 Feb. If Huckster can’t carry SC, he ain’t likely to carry any other state – and arguably, Thompson is in a better position than Giuliani. Time will tell.

  • Greg

    Kay,

    Thompson has been dead since Iowa. The fact that he continues on amuses me to no end.

    It’ll be McCain in November.

  • http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2006/11/22/comrades-i-hereby-declare-the-revolution/ Adam Selene

    I think the race is now down to McCain and Romney. Since either of them is a better choice than Giuliani and Huckabee, it’s not the worst outcome possible. Either of them should be able to beat Hillary, but are going to have a tough time with Obama. That’s all just my opinion of the outcomes and doesn’t reflect at all my view of what I would personally prefer.

  • http://last.fm/user/nitroadict Nitroadict

    RP is “dead” will become so popular & hip to say on the internets; despite full on denials of RP’s role as more of a vehicle for more libertarian ideas than a politician running for the WH. Besides, he’s running for Congress again anyways, it would be naive to think he would fade away after garnering such a variety & amount of support.

    Regardless of what happens, I won’t be the only one to credit Ron Paul with bitch-slapping Giuliani early on in the debates with “blowback”. If RP only helped prevent a full on fascist from getting power, by helping to point out the insane, I’d say it’s one of the many accomplishments he’s garnered.

    Of course, Giuliani’s campaign is/was about as organized as a duck on demerol (sans Flat-Line Fred). I’m sure that had something to do with it. Wasn’t surprised at all McCain is looking the most viable; everyone loves a comeback story, especially the (now DOA) GOP.

    In any case, it looks like the march for fascism still continues, I’m afraid :\.

  • http://thelibertypapers.org/ Brad Warbiany

    Nitroadict,

    I do agree with you. Anything that can keep Giuliani out of the white house is a good thing, and Ron Paul consistently beating him in the primaries is a very good thing.

  • UCrawford

    Overall, Ron Paul is in fourth

    Q: And what does a candidate win for placing fourth in a primary?

    A: Pretty much the same thing everyone from second place on down gets.

    I am happy that he’s beating Guiliani, though.

  • http://www.crazyforliberty.com Doug Craig

    Forth place will get you get a place on the Libertarian Ticket
    Second Place gets you a VP nod on McCain’s Ticket
    Fifth gets you more time on Law and order
    Sixth get you more time with your newest wife.

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