Nevada/South Carolina Predictions And Saturday Open Thread

Once again, I tread into the dangerous and, so far unsuccessful, world of prediction.

In this case, today’s South Carolina Republican Primary and Nevada Caucuses.

First Nevada:


  1. Barack Obama
  2. Hillary Clinton
  3. John Edwards

The current polls show Clinton with a slight edge, but caucuses are harder to poll than primaries and I think Obama will win based on a combination of his endorsement from the Culinary Workers Union and resentment over the efforts of Clinton’s backers in the Teacher’s Union to stop the casino caucus sites.


  1. Mitt Romney
  2. John McCain
  3. Mike Huckabee
  4. Rudy Giuliani
  5. Ron Paul
  6. Fred Thompson

Nothing too surprising here. Nevada has over 100,000 Mormons, so that gives Romney a fairly substantial base to work with. The only change I could see to the above would be if more Ron Paul supporters come out than predicted and push him into 4th place instead of 5th.

And, finally, South Carolina:

  1. John McCain
  2. Mike Huckabee
  3. Fred Thompson
  4. Mitt Romney
  5. Ron Paul
  6. Rudy Giuliani

Late polls show Huckabee closing on McCain, but the more interesting question will be if Thompson is able to do better than expected. A strong third would be good for him, but second place is what his campaign really needs.

As always, feel free to criticize.

  • Kevin

    Ron Paul’s only use to me is that beats Rudy consistently.

  • Doug Craig

    Did you see the photo caaught on fox news. It is on Ron Paul’s website or at
    Fox and CNN suck

  • Adam Selene

    Doug, did you stop to consider that they did it that way because those are the front runner candidates for the GOP nomination? It probably is NOT because of a secret conspiracy to make sure Ron Paul doesn’t win.

  • Doug Craig

    I did. I understand they are showing the top candidates. If I had not seen this type of stuff before I would think that way. In the Libertarian races I have worked I have seen the same thing. Where they cut our candidate out of the photo or put us as other candidate when writing the article and we where the only other candidate.
    I had a discussion once with and AJC reporter who said way should I cover your candidate he has ne chance of winng . I said fair enough put looking at your polling neither does the democrat but you still give him equal coverage.
    This was the Governor race in georgia in 2006. I was running the Libertarian campaign for Garrett Hayes . We polled as high as 10%.We also ran 3000 tv ads in that market. Taylor the democrat got crushed in that race.
    So yeah I did think about that

  • Adam Selene

    Actually, I think the traditional media has done a good job, considering that there’s no precedent for this Presidential race. It is the first time since the 1920’s that there is no candidate who is not an incumbent President or Vice President. 1968 is the closest, and Nixon was a former VP. The only thing even close in this campaign is Hillary.

    This campaign is wide open and brawling and they really don’t know how to deal with it in comparison to the normal, staid, 1-1 campaigns of the past decades.

  • Doug Craig

    I do believe they are not used to this. I believe they like it when there is only two choices. They like it black and white.We will see how the news goes down tomorrow.

  • Adam Selene

    Of course they prefer it that way Doug. But, this campaign is forcing the traditional media types to get outside that black-white place. They don’t really have a choice.

    I’m not saying the traditional media has done well. I’m saying they’ve covered this campaign well considering the reality of the campaign. There’s a difference.

  • Chris Kachouroff

    Well well….Paul is 2nd in Nevada?

    Who would have guessed? So south carolina goes the way of the other pragmatists….who cares?

    Paul still has a chance….it’s all in the delegates. Alternatively, we can always announce indpendent party come October of 2008. THat’ll give us time to put the message out.