Monday Open Thread: Florida Primary Predictionsby Doug Mataconis
One of these days, I’m gonna get this right, and I
think hope today may be the day.
Here’s how I think things will pan out in Florida tomorrow.
- John McCain
- Mitt Romney
- Rudy Giuliani
- Mike Huckabee
- Ron Paul
Over the weekend, John McCain received endorsements from Senator Mel Martinez and Governor Charlie Crist, both of which are likely to be just enough to help him overcome a last minute surge from Mitt Romney. Depending on how big the margin of victory, this could be the beginning of the end of the Republican race. Giuliani has fallen behind, but there are also reports that he has benefited a lot from Florida’s early voting — I don’t think it’s going to be enough to push him past third place, though. Huckabee continues to do well in southern states like Georgia and Tennessee, but Florida’s influx of Northerners is cutting down on his support there. As for Ron Paul, well from what I’ve seen it doesn’t seem like the campaign has paid any attention at all to Florida — again making me wonder what they’re doing with all that money they raised.
- Hillary Clinton
- Barack Obama
- John Edwards
Technically, there isn’t really supposed to be a Democratic Primary in Florida tomorrow, or at least not one that counts. When the Florida Democratic Party decided to move it’s primary up to January 29th, the National Committee responded by stripping the state of all of it’s delegates. And each of the candidates promised not to actively campaign in Florida as well and support the DNC’s decision. Unless your name is Hillary Clinton, of course:
This is a very, very, very big deal. From the Clinton campaign:
I hear all the time from people in Florida and Michigan that they want their voices heard in selecting the Democratic nominee.
I believe our nominee will need the enthusiastic support of Democrats in these states to win the general election, and so I will ask my Democratic convention delegates to support seating the delegations from Florida and Michigan. I know not all of my delegates will do so and I fully respect that decision. But I hope to be President of all 50 states and U.S. territories, and that we have all 50 states represented and counted at the Democratic convention.
I hope my fellow potential nominees will join me in this.
I will of course be following the no-campaigning pledge that I signed, and expect others will as well.
Hillary is going to win Florida, basically by default, just like she won the meaningless primary in Michigan. Between those two states we’re talking about over 200 delegates that wouldn’t be seated if the DNC’s resolution stands. Does anyone not think that Hillary will make an issue over this if the nomination fight ends up being as close as some think it will be ?