Florida Primary/State Of The Race Wrap-Up And Wednesday Open Thread

Given the news that’s breaking this morning, about which there is more below, it’s fairly clear that the race for the Republican and Democratic nomination have both entered their final phase, and things are turning out far differently than we thought they would one month, or even two weeks, ago.

Republicans

John McCain is now the frontrunner in the Republican race and, thanks to Rudy Giuliani’s pending endorsement, it’s getting harder and harder to imagine a scenario where he won’t be the nominee after the dust clears. Of the remaining candidates, Mitt Romney is the only one in a position to beat McCain but, as long he continues splitting the anti-McCain vote with Mike Huckabee, he’ll slip further and further behind. By the time next Wednesday rolls around, McCain won’t be the nominee yet, but he’ll be pretty darn close.

So get used to it folks, John McCain will be the Republican nominee.

Democrats

Outside of Hillary making it fairly obvious last night that she intended to go back on her promise and fight to have Florida’s delegates seated at the convention, it didn’t seem like there’d be any big news about the Democratic race today.

Then, John Edwards decided to drop out of the race. He’ll announce his decision today in New Orleans and apparently won’t be formally endorsing anyone at this time. Nonetheless, his withdrawal will change the nature of the Democratic race significantly as people try to figure out where his supporters will go.

My guess is that Edwards supporters are more likely to go to Obama than Hillary. By supporting Edwards to begin with, they’ve already demonstrated that they are against Clinton to some extent so the idea that they’d run happily into their arms seems unlikely. Moreover, Obama’s message has been more similar to Edwards’ than Clinton’s has to the extent that, at recent debates, it sometimes seemed like Edwards and Obama were double-teaming Hillary. Combined with the Kennedy endorsement and all the resources that provides, this could be enough to put Barack Obama over the top.

So, here’s the question, in a race between Barack Obama and John McCain, and assuming for the moment that Ron Paul will not run on a third-party ticket, which one would be the better choice, assuming there is one ?

  • http://rabidtransit.higherground4x4.com Chris Brewer

    If it came down to Obama or Mccain, Id lean more towards Obama. But chances are I would write in Ron Paul before I voted for either of them.

  • http://www.orderhotlunch.com Jeff Molby

    Third party. There’s no point in squabbling over scraps.

  • http://www.ronpaulforums.com Kevin Houston

    Given the Faustian choice you outline: Libertarian Party. (Which will not gain enough votes to even be the margin of victory of Obama over McCain.)

    But, if Huckabee and Romney drop out, then the dynamic changes completely. McCain is benefitting from the Not-Romney vote (just as Romney is benefitting from the Not-McCain vote.) If this ever becomes a 2 man race (McCain and Paul or Romney and Paul) then Paul might start winning.

    Once Huckabee drops out, (all but assured after Feb 5th, although it would be to Dr. Paul’s benefit if Mike would do so beforehand) I would expect evangelicals to support Paul, bring his numbers up, but not enough to overcome either Romney or McCain.

    This will go to convention unless Romney drops out also at some point.

    Therefore one would expect Romney (at least) to stay in the race, and this will go to a brokered convention, where anything is possible.

  • Paul revere

    Republicans and their pundits/operatives are “Shapeing the battlefield” as Rummy used to say.. they “Know they Can Beat Barak Hussain” but not Hillary!

    The Republicans STOLE the Democrats 2008 Primary Election Delegates Vote Again in Florida! Just as they stole election votes in 2000, and in 2004 by vote count and totals computer flipping I saw and verified, and “suppressed black votes” by Highway Patrol poll roadblock intimidation – checking for licenses and and proof of auto insurance. Thanks Jeb Bush for 2000 & 2004. Thanks Republican Florida Legislature 2008!

    It is All About Experience and ability to Fight and reverse seven years of Lies by Republican Mal-Administration, rampant Federal Law violations, as documented 235 Lies by Bush and Cheney, Corporatism in government – allowing the manipulation of unregulated trading of oil and energy prices, lax enforcement of environmental laws, no mine safety regulation fines, attack on Constitutional Bill of Rights, Free Speech, spying on Americans, from imprisoning demonstrators in New York at Republican Convention to lying to Justice Investigation Valerie Plame violation of Federal Security Laws by Bush, directed by Cheney secret government and Irve Lewis Libby, Karl Rove leaks to Robert Novak, etc. Yes, Experience Is More Important than Hype and singing Kumbaya!

  • http://dangerouslyidealistic.blogspot.com/ UCrawford

    Jeff,

    Third party. There’s no point in squabbling over scraps.

    Agreed.

  • http://myspace.com/medici59 Medici59

    Hey Paul revere,
    Get a clue and stop the partisan hyperbole. It doesn’t matter what party is in power or which one of the crooks are taking away our freedoms. It’s the fact they are doing it! The GOP and the Dems are two sides to the same coin. If we don’t open our eyes, stop the name calling and bickering, and get together soon, it’ll be too late. You are buying into their crap, worrying about who stole more, who told the biggest lie, and who is the lesser of the evils. Enough! Educate people about our Republic, our Constitution, and hold them all accountable. Embrace our fellow citizens and realize that neither “Party” has your best interests in mind. We can take back our Parties, and then take back our Country……Together!

  • http://thelibertypapers.org/2005/11/22/a-bit-about-kevin/ Kevin

    Stay home. No point in giving either candidate legitimacy.