Super Tuesday Predictions And Tuesday Open Threadby Doug Mataconis
Quite honestly, I’m not sure anyone can predict with certainty what’s going to happen when you’re dealing with the closest thing to a national primary day that we’ve ever had.
Nonetheless, here I go again:
Thanks to strong victories in several winner-take-all states such as New York and New Jersey, John McCain will come out of today’s primaries with at least 700 delegates. It won’t give him the nomination, but it will put him mighty close and, when that is combined with what look like guaranteed victories in the so-called Potomac Primary (Virginia, Maryland and D.C.) next Tuesday, it’s going to be hard to see how anyone other than John McCain can win the nomination.
Mitt Romney will win in Utah, Colorado, and few other small states but his biggest news of the day will come from a close victory in California. Since the Golden State awards delegates on a proportional basis, though, it won’t be as big a victory as his supporters would like it to be. And, in the end, he will be a distant second on Wednesday morning.
Mike Huckabee will play spoiler for McCain in a few Southern states, but beyond that it’s hard to see what his purpose is in this race.
Ron Paul, will not win a single state and, other than the possibility of a better-than-expected finish in the Alaska Caucuses, will not come in better than fourth place anywhere else. Within 24 hours after the voting ends, his supporters will claim voter fraud.
By the end of the day Monday, it was clear that there was a surge toward Barack Obama.
Because of that, I’m predicting that he will win in California along with Georgia, Alabama, Illinois, and Connecticut.
When the delegates are tallied up at the end of the day, Obama and Hillary will be essentially tied and the Democratic race will move on to the next battleground, and the one after that, and the one after that.
As always, feel free to join in with your own predictions.