Thoughts, essays, and writings on Liberty. Written by the heirs of Patrick Henry.

“Democracy and socialism have nothing in common but one word, equality. But notice the difference: while democracy seeks equality in liberty, socialism seeks equality in restraint and servitude.”     Alexis de Tocqueville

February 5, 2008

Super Tuesday Predictions And Tuesday Open Thread

by Doug Mataconis

Quite honestly, I’m not sure anyone can predict with certainty what’s going to happen when you’re dealing with the closest thing to a national primary day that we’ve ever had.

Nonetheless, here I go again:

Republicans

Thanks to strong victories in several winner-take-all states such as New York and New Jersey, John McCain will come out of today’s primaries with at least 700 delegates. It won’t give him the nomination, but it will put him mighty close and, when that is combined with what look like guaranteed victories in the so-called Potomac Primary (Virginia, Maryland and D.C.) next Tuesday, it’s going to be hard to see how anyone other than John McCain can win the nomination.

Mitt Romney will win in Utah, Colorado, and few other small states but his biggest news of the day will come from a close victory in California. Since the Golden State awards delegates on a proportional basis, though, it won’t be as big a victory as his supporters would like it to be. And, in the end, he will be a distant second on Wednesday morning.

Mike Huckabee will play spoiler for McCain in a few Southern states, but beyond that it’s hard to see what his purpose is in this race.

Ron Paul, will not win a single state and, other than the possibility of a better-than-expected finish in the Alaska Caucuses, will not come in better than fourth place anywhere else. Within 24 hours after the voting ends, his supporters will claim voter fraud.

Democrats

By the end of the day Monday, it was clear that there was a surge toward Barack Obama.

Because of that, I’m predicting that he will win in California along with Georgia, Alabama, Illinois, and Connecticut.

When the delegates are tallied up at the end of the day, Obama and Hillary will be essentially tied and the Democratic race will move on to the next battleground, and the one after that, and the one after that.

As always, feel free to join in with your own predictions.

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8 Comments

  1. I think suppression & delaying (more so the latter, like in Louisiana) of votes is more an accurate description than the the more vague &encompassing “fraud” term.

    Knee jerk reactions from anyone does make the IQ look a bit low, so I will merit the cynical outlook on some people just screaming fraud instantly without gathering the situation (on the other hand, NH is a valid case on both Democrat & Republican sides).

    Ultimately, I predict things will get more interesting, for better or worse.

    I would find it amusing if Limbaugh more-or-less endorsed RP since he doesn’t seem to like anyone else. Although, I’m not including a “lesser-of-3-GOP-evils” here, so who knows, he might go with Romney, despite no MSM candidates being real conservatives.

    Comment by Nitroadict — February 5, 2008 @ 3:20 am
  2. Hi, Dim bulb. What is voter fraud? Is that where a voter steps into a voting booth and commits a crime?

    If that is the case, I predict a ton of “voter fraud” this year. Voter fraud will be rampant! A vote for McCain or Romney or Huckabee or even Clinton and Obama should be looked upon as a crime against America and dealt with swiftly.

    A vote for anyone other than Ron Paul is a crime and should be viewed as treason.

    A vote for anyone other than Ron Paul is Anti-American and those guilty of such an act should hang their heads in shame.

    A vote for anyone other than Ron Paul is a vote cast by a weak, ignorant traitor that is willing to hand this fine republic over to Globalist criminals.

    Take this country back you god damned fools.

    VOTE FOR RON PAUL

    Comment by Matt Kerbouchard — February 5, 2008 @ 4:25 am
  3. [...] Liberty Papers have a few predictions.  I predict we’re about to lose some money or some freedom, and more [...]

    Pingback by Stupor Tuesday | Hear ItFrom.Us — February 5, 2008 @ 6:05 am
  4. I predict a bunch of pundit bloggers with no actual experience in republican party politics will make factually errant predictions based on bad information about the process.

    Further, when people for once shine a light on this process and the kind of thing that goes on regularly inside the parties that most people would be horrified by these same pundits will laugh at the silliness of actually trying to accomplish fair elections.

    If their bleak predictions for Ron’s performance win out, they will laugh and possibly even cheer. They will then continue to complain about the government while the country circles the drain and never expend an iota of personal effort in the cause of liberty.

    Many of the rest of us will invest every spare minute and penny we have in the cause of freedom, even if it is an imperfect candidate. We will do this because while it is our goal to win, winning is not all that matters. We will do this because we know the right thing isn’t always the sure thing, or the safe thing.

    Comment by Mark — February 5, 2008 @ 7:51 am
  5. Mark,

    Winning may not be the only thing, but it sure helps sometime.

    The Republican Party is in the middle of a battle for its soul and, thanks to the Ron Paul diversion, libertarians are not even part of the argument.

    Comment by Doug Mataconis — February 5, 2008 @ 8:44 am
  6. Nitro,

    Rush isn’t going to endorse Ron Paul.

    Doesn’t anyone realize what he’s doing ? He’s an entertainer and a radio host, and he’s got everyone talking about him.

    Comment by Doug Mataconis — February 5, 2008 @ 8:45 am
  7. In a depressingly joyless experience, I voted for Ron Paul, which I blogged about here:
    http://publiusendures.blogspot.com/2008/02/my-reluctant-vote-and-what-ron-paul.html

    My predictions on the Dem side are here:
    http://publiusendures.blogspot.com/2008/02/final-super-tuesday-prognostications.html

    My Republican predictions?
    It’s all over after tonight. McCain wins a squeaker in California, wins all of the delegate-rich winner take all primaries in the Northeast. Romney will win Utah, Colorado, and West Virginia. The Alaska caucuses go to Paul on the grounds that it’s frickin’ cold in Alaska and not very easy to get around. Huckabee wins Arkansas, Alabama and Georgia.
    Mitt Romney cries over the amount of money he’s lost on his campaign.

    Comment by Mark — February 5, 2008 @ 8:52 am
  8. The Republican Party is in the middle of a battle for its soul and, thanks to the Ron Paul diversion, libertarians are not even part of the argument.

    (emphasis mine)

    Get off it. We weren’t going to be part of the argument anyways. Aside from Paul, there was never a single legitimate fiscal conservative in the race, let alone an honest-to-god libertarian.

    You lose a lot of your credibility when you flail like this.

    Comment by Jeff Molby — February 5, 2008 @ 3:22 pm

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