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	<title>Comments on: Open Thread: Chances Of A Brokered Convention?</title>
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	<link>http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/</link>
	<description>Life. Liberty. Property. Defending individual freedom and liberty, one post at a time.</description>
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		<title>By: TerryP</title>
		<link>http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51558</link>
		<dc:creator>TerryP</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Feb 2008 05:20:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51558</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I don&#039;t really know the rules but if Romney drops out his delegates come up for grabs I assume.  In at least two states (Montana and Nevada) Paul finished second to Romney.  It may be possible that the Romney delegates in those states as well as others could move to Paul instead of McCain or Huckabee, especially if our economy starts crashing and the war in Iraq starts taking a turn for the worse.  Paul might look pretty good at that time for fiscal conservatives.  The chances of this happening are remote but who knows.  The Romney people do not like McCain or even Huckabee and while they may think Paul is a bit of a kook, they may back him just to piss the other candidates off.

My guess is that Huckabee backs out later as well to take a position with McCain, possibly Vice President, and then McCain easily has enough delegates to win making how many Paul has a moot point.  But I still think his candidacy will have some weight in just being a bit of a protest vote against McCain and for fiscal conservatism.  Paul could start picking up some pretty big numbers, though not anywhere near enough to stop McCain from getting the nomination.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t really know the rules but if Romney drops out his delegates come up for grabs I assume.  In at least two states (Montana and Nevada) Paul finished second to Romney.  It may be possible that the Romney delegates in those states as well as others could move to Paul instead of McCain or Huckabee, especially if our economy starts crashing and the war in Iraq starts taking a turn for the worse.  Paul might look pretty good at that time for fiscal conservatives.  The chances of this happening are remote but who knows.  The Romney people do not like McCain or even Huckabee and while they may think Paul is a bit of a kook, they may back him just to piss the other candidates off.</p>
<p>My guess is that Huckabee backs out later as well to take a position with McCain, possibly Vice President, and then McCain easily has enough delegates to win making how many Paul has a moot point.  But I still think his candidacy will have some weight in just being a bit of a protest vote against McCain and for fiscal conservatism.  Paul could start picking up some pretty big numbers, though not anywhere near enough to stop McCain from getting the nomination.</p>
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		<title>By: SC</title>
		<link>http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51545</link>
		<dc:creator>SC</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Feb 2008 22:42:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51545</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[About the only way Ron Paul is going to be a factor at all in the rest of the race MIGHT be as a spoiler if there is a particularly close state primary (i.e. if say two other candidates are neck-and-neck, Paul might draw that crucial one or two percent of votes away from one of them that would give the other the win), but that&#039;s about it.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>About the only way Ron Paul is going to be a factor at all in the rest of the race MIGHT be as a spoiler if there is a particularly close state primary (i.e. if say two other candidates are neck-and-neck, Paul might draw that crucial one or two percent of votes away from one of them that would give the other the win), but that&#8217;s about it.</p>
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		<title>By: Doug Mataconis</title>
		<link>http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51542</link>
		<dc:creator>Doug Mataconis</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Feb 2008 22:32:16 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Their math includes delegates in states where the process isn&#039;t final yet so claiming they have 42 delegates is, to say the least, deceptive.

5 million ? Obama raised 32 million. And what happened to the 23 million the campaign claimed it needed before Super Tuesday ? 

As Brad asked amy, outside of a brokered convention (which won&#039;t happen and, even if it did, Paul would not be allowed to participate) how is Ron Paul a factor in this race going forward ?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Their math includes delegates in states where the process isn&#8217;t final yet so claiming they have 42 delegates is, to say the least, deceptive.</p>
<p>5 million ? Obama raised 32 million. And what happened to the 23 million the campaign claimed it needed before Super Tuesday ? </p>
<p>As Brad asked amy, outside of a brokered convention (which won&#8217;t happen and, even if it did, Paul would not be allowed to participate) how is Ron Paul a factor in this race going forward ?</p>
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		<title>By: newman</title>
		<link>http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51541</link>
		<dc:creator>newman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Feb 2008 22:29:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51541</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ron Paul&#039;s website is claiming he has 42 delegates.

He still has raised more than 5 million dollars in about the last month, and he says he&#039;s not dropping out.

So even if his chances are next to nothing, he&#039;s still a factor in the race.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ron Paul&#8217;s website is claiming he has 42 delegates.</p>
<p>He still has raised more than 5 million dollars in about the last month, and he says he&#8217;s not dropping out.</p>
<p>So even if his chances are next to nothing, he&#8217;s still a factor in the race.</p>
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		<title>By: Doug Mataconis</title>
		<link>http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51528</link>
		<dc:creator>Doug Mataconis</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Feb 2008 20:10:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51528</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Kevin,

I agree completely.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Kevin,</p>
<p>I agree completely.</p>
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		<title>By: Kevin</title>
		<link>http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51527</link>
		<dc:creator>Kevin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Feb 2008 20:09:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51527</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Doug,

Ron Paul has won around zero states and I see nothing that demonstrates he will improve his standing.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Doug,</p>
<p>Ron Paul has won around zero states and I see nothing that demonstrates he will improve his standing.</p>
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		<title>By: Doug Mataconis</title>
		<link>http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51526</link>
		<dc:creator>Doug Mataconis</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Feb 2008 20:07:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51526</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Followup....

Here&#039;s RNC Rule 40(b)

&lt;blockquote&gt;Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.&lt;/blockquote&gt;

As I read it, if a candidate doesn&#039;t win at least five states their name won&#039;t even be called during the nominating phase of the convention.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Followup&#8230;.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s RNC Rule 40(b)</p>
<blockquote><p>Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of five (5) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination.</p></blockquote>
<p>As I read it, if a candidate doesn&#8217;t win at least five states their name won&#8217;t even be called during the nominating phase of the convention.</p>
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		<title>By: Doug Mataconis</title>
		<link>http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51524</link>
		<dc:creator>Doug Mataconis</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Feb 2008 19:58:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51524</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Brad,

There&#039;s one other thing to keep in mind even if the convention is brokered.

Under the GOP&#039;s convention rules, if there is no winner on a first (or second  ?) ballot, the only candidates who can be considered from that point forward are ones who&#039;ve won at least 5 state primaries or caucuses. Paul would be shut out of a brokered convention.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Brad,</p>
<p>There&#8217;s one other thing to keep in mind even if the convention is brokered.</p>
<p>Under the GOP&#8217;s convention rules, if there is no winner on a first (or second  ?) ballot, the only candidates who can be considered from that point forward are ones who&#8217;ve won at least 5 state primaries or caucuses. Paul would be shut out of a brokered convention.</p>
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		<title>By: Brad Warbiany</title>
		<link>http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51523</link>
		<dc:creator>Brad Warbiany</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Feb 2008 19:50:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51523</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Brant,

Ron Paul will be *ZERO* factor unless the convention is brokered, correct?  After all, he&#039;s got 16 delegates and hasn&#039;t won a single state.

Assuming the convention isn&#039;t brokered (which is the discussion here), how do you assume he&#039;ll be a factor?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Brant,</p>
<p>Ron Paul will be *ZERO* factor unless the convention is brokered, correct?  After all, he&#8217;s got 16 delegates and hasn&#8217;t won a single state.</p>
<p>Assuming the convention isn&#8217;t brokered (which is the discussion here), how do you assume he&#8217;ll be a factor?</p>
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		<title>By: Kevin</title>
		<link>http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51522</link>
		<dc:creator>Kevin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Feb 2008 19:45:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51522</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Brant,

I will be more of a factor in the presidential race than Ron Paul.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Brant,</p>
<p>I will be more of a factor in the presidential race than Ron Paul.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Brant</title>
		<link>http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51520</link>
		<dc:creator>Brant</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Feb 2008 19:41:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51520</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There are not three candidates in the race. There are four. Ron Paul still has plenty of money and will be factor in many states even if he doesn&#039;t win any. He has beaten each of the other three at least once.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There are not three candidates in the race. There are four. Ron Paul still has plenty of money and will be factor in many states even if he doesn&#8217;t win any. He has beaten each of the other three at least once.</p>
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		<title>By: Kevin</title>
		<link>http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51516</link>
		<dc:creator>Kevin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Feb 2008 19:31:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51516</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Jeff,

Let&#039;s be frank, the LA GOP rigged the Caucuses for McCain. Therefore, McCain will win Louisiana.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Jeff,</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s be frank, the LA GOP rigged the Caucuses for McCain. Therefore, McCain will win Louisiana.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Jeff Molby</title>
		<link>http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51515</link>
		<dc:creator>Jeff Molby</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Feb 2008 18:30:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51515</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Louisiana doesn&#039;t matter. Unless someone gets a clear majority in the primary, the delegates are selected based on the caucuses that were held two weeks ago.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Louisiana doesn&#8217;t matter. Unless someone gets a clear majority in the primary, the delegates are selected based on the caucuses that were held two weeks ago.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>By: Doug Mataconis</title>
		<link>http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51513</link>
		<dc:creator>Doug Mataconis</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Feb 2008 17:58:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51513</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Kevin, 

Yea, I forgot to mention the veteran factor in Virginia as well. We&#039;ve got tons of vets here in Northern Va --- not to mention all the people who work at Quantico, the Pentagon, and Ft. Belvoir. They&#039;ll all go heavy for McCain.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Kevin, </p>
<p>Yea, I forgot to mention the veteran factor in Virginia as well. We&#8217;ve got tons of vets here in Northern Va &#8212; not to mention all the people who work at Quantico, the Pentagon, and Ft. Belvoir. They&#8217;ll all go heavy for McCain.</p>
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		<title>By: Kevin</title>
		<link>http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51512</link>
		<dc:creator>Kevin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Feb 2008 17:53:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.thelibertypapers.org/2008/02/06/open-thread-chances-of-a-brokered-convention/#comment-51512</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Another thing:

5) A lot of veterans in Louisiana, and they&#039;ll back McCain.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Another thing:</p>
<p>5) A lot of veterans in Louisiana, and they&#8217;ll back McCain.</p>
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