Comments on: Super Tuesday Wrap-up And Wednesday Open Thread

By: Below The Beltway » Blog Archive » The Chances Of A Brokered Convention

Wed, 06 Feb 2008 17:50:08 +0000

[...] Brad notes, I have expressed skepticism about the chances of a brokered convention and, rather than writing another post on the issue over at TLP, I figured I would do it here and [...]

By: The Liberty Papers »Blog Archive » Open Thread: Chances Of A Brokered Convention?

Wed, 06 Feb 2008 16:35:07 +0000

[...] Doug Mataconis: Tarran, It’s not a dumb strategy, but I think it’s increasingly unlikely that there will… [...]

By: Doug Mataconis

Doug Mataconis — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 15:17:55 +0000

Tarran,

And I agree, Paul’s not going to drop out, at least not yet.

Texas law allows him to run for re-election to Congress and President at the same time so I’m guessing he will stay in until at least the Texas Primary on March 4th.

By: Doug Mataconis

Doug Mataconis — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 15:17:10 +0000

Tarran,

It’s not a dumb strategy, but I think it’s increasingly unlikely that there will be a brokered convention.

And, honestly, right now, Ron Paul only has 16 confirmed delegates. There’s not alot of horsetrading you can do with that.

By: tarran

tarran — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 15:11:47 +0000

I don’t think Paul is going to drop out quite yet;

I believe that Paul’s goal is to influence whomever is the eventual nominee by horse trading his delegates for platform changes or a post for himself.

his supporters did just that in WV. Huckabee won the state after the Ron Paul supporters changed their vote in order to bush him over the top. this denied Romney the victory, and bought them a handful of delegates.

Despite some of the more optimistic comments coming from his supporters on LewRockwell.com, I think Ron Paul’s strategy has always been to try to play kingmaker at a brokered convention. You can’t do that if you drop out early.

By: Lost_In_Translation

Lost_In_Translation — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 13:02:30 +0000

While Paul did not recieve alot of delegates, I think Obama should start looking for a boost when Paul drops out (today…tomorrow?). Paul has played an important roles of presenting the republicans with an alternative and showing that there are still alot of republicans that would do anything to change the direction their party is going. However, since the majority of republicans seem to be happy enough voting for another patriarchal figure in John McCain, Mitt Romney, I think alot of the support Paul has generated could shift over to Obama when Paul drops out. Look for Obamamania to increase in the upcoming weeks and he might possibly gain parity with Clinton if he wins a string of states between now and Texas. I, a Paul supporter, am already considering throwing my vote behind Obama if it means he has a shot of defeating Clinton in Texas.

By: Justin Bowen

Justin Bowen — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 13:01:28 +0000

Of course, the big question with the Democratic race is the superdelegates. If Obama doesn’t win more delegates from the states, he’s finished and we’re on a surefire course for disaster. As for Paul, yeah, he’s finished.