The Republican Race For The White House Is Over
With today’s announcement by Mitt Romney that he was suspending his Presidential campaign, I think it’s fair to say that the race for the Republican nomination is over and that John McCain will be the Republican nominee.
As improbable as it would have been for Mitt Romney to beat McCain after Super Tuesday, it’s pretty much impossible for Mike Huckabee to do it. And Ron Paul ? Well, at the very least, this should put an end to that segment of the Paulbots who, even after Tuesday, were dreaming of a brokered convention, or maybe not.
It does lead to an interesting thought though — when this all started a year ago, who thought that the last three men left in the race would be Ron Paul, Mike Huckabee, and the de facto nominee, John McCain.
Update 2/8/2008: Okay guys, it’s officially over, here are the results of the first post-Romney poll in Virginia:
One day after Mitt Romney withdrew from the Republican race for President, John McCain collects approximately two-thirds of Romney’s support, according to before-and-after tracking polls conducted by SurveyUSA for WJLA-TV Washington DC, WDBJ-TV Roanoke, and WTVR-TV Richmond. In SurveyUSA interviews conducted on 02/06/08, before Romney withdrew, McCain got 45%, Romney 22%, Mike Huckabee 20%. In interviews conducted on 02/07/08 and 02/08/08, immediately after Romney withdrew, McCain gained 12 points, to 57%, Huckabee gained 5 points, to 25%. McCain led Huckabee by 25 points before Romney dropped out. McCain leads Huckabee by 32 points now. McCain leads in all regions of the state, though Huckabee runs slightly stronger in the Shenandoah and in Southeast VA than he does in the DC suburbs and in Central VA. To the extent that Republicans in Virginia see John McCain’s nomination as a foregone conclusion, and therefore do not turn out to vote, McCain’s margin of victory may here be slightly overstated or understated — but the dynamics of the contest are clear. At stake are 63 winner-take-all delegates to the Republican National Convention.
For the record, Ron Paul came it at 9% in this poll and seems to have picked up none of the Romney votes. This is how it’s going to play out from here on in. There will be no challenge. There will be no brokered convention.