Potomac Primary Predictions And Monday Open Thread

This job is getting a lot easier now that the Democratic race is down to two people and the Republican race is essentially over. Nonetheless, here we go.


Over the weekend, some may have gotten the impression that Mike Huckabee was riding the wave of a stop McCain movement, but that wave will crash on the shores of the Eastern Atlantic.

John McCain will win Virginia, Maryland, and the District of Columbia, and he will win all of them by substantial margins. He will win all of the delegates up for grabs in Virginia and the District and he’ll win most, if not all, of Maryland’s delegates as well.

Ron Paul continue to garner about 5% of the vote even though he has basically stopped actively campaigning for President.

And then, finally, Republicans will realize what they should have realized after Super Tuesday. The race is over. John McCain will be the nominee.


The Barack Obama wave will continue on Tuesday. He’ll win substantial victories in Maryland and D.C. and he will win Virginia, though his margin of victory may be smaller than recent polls have shown.

The Democratic Delegate race will continue to be tight, but with Obama continuing to rack up victories, it’s hard to see how the superdelegates will be able to go against the will of their party.

  • Craig

    Are you sure you want to count Huckabee out in Virginia?

    So far, the only states where McCain has won a majority of the vote are Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York — hardly conservative strongholds. He didn’t even manage 50% in his home state of Arizona.

    In Kansas and Washington, about three fourths of Republican caucus-goers voted against him. It sort of makes you think the only reason he is leading the race is because Romney, Huckabee, and Paul have been splitting the conservative vote.

  • http://www.belowthebeltway.com Doug Mataconis

    There’s only one problem with your theory.

    McCain’s numbers in Virginia went up after Romney dropped out, not Huckabee’s. Huckabee has made up some ground since then but given the fact that McCain will heavily populated areas of the state like Northern Virginia and the Tidewater/Norfolk region, I’m pretty certain that it won’t be enough.

    And if you believe that “Romney Huckabee and Paul” have been splitting the conservative vote, you have a funny way of defining splitting. When they were all in the race, Romney and Huckabee got most of that vote and Ron Paul got table scrapes.

    He hasn’t picked up any significant support since Romney dropped out.

    There won’t be a brokered convention, that I’m certain of. And even if there were, there’s no way that Ron Paul would be the nominee that came out of it.