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September 9, 2008

The Palin Bump — Bigger Than I Expected

by Brad Warbiany

I’ve been saying for a long time that I’ve long figured this election was in the bag for Obama. Given the degree to which the nation is fed up with Bush and desiring change, coupled with the fact that he’s a dynamic speaker and near-celebrity, finally added to the historic demographic story of potentially ‘the first Black President’, and I thought it was a foregone conclusion.

As evidence, before the conventions, my favorite “poll”, the prediction market Intrade, had Obama trading at about a 60 share for the presidency with McCain trading about 39-40. A 60-40 split would have probably signified a landslide.

So I was shocked when I checked it today. Obama is trading at 53, McCain at 47. That kind of a move in this short of a time, given no major scandals, is a big deal. We’re talking “major chink in the armor” big deal. To see this happen in a week or so is a trend in the making.

Which, of course, just goes to show you that the American electorate is a fickle bunch. A woman whom the American public barely knows has just moved the real balance of electoral odds by a 14-point swing.

When it comes to Palin, I’ve said previously that she’s probably the best a Republican can expect, and is a mixed bag to libertarians. But when you see a VP candidate swing the odds this much, how can you not believe that our electoral process has become anything but American Idol writ large?

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UPDATE 9/10/2008 – 7:39 PM : Even more shocking news. One night later, and Intrade has it 50-50…

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7 Comments

  1. Just read the tee-shirt:

    I AM SARAH

    Comment by Catherine MacGowan — September 10, 2008 @ 1:18 pm
  2. Just read the tee-shirt:

    I AM SARAH

    The American public does know her.

    Comment by Catherine MacGowan — September 10, 2008 @ 1:20 pm
  3. what is this crap?

    Comment by oilnwater — September 10, 2008 @ 2:30 pm
  4. Do you think that polls like these are simply trying to “put lipstick on a pig”? :)

    Comment by Alex — September 10, 2008 @ 3:09 pm
  5. oil,

    what is this crap?

    I believe it was an observation on a current event. I could be wrong, but considering that I wrote it, I’m pretty sure that it was an observation on a current event.

    Comment by Brad Warbiany — September 10, 2008 @ 7:11 pm
  6. Sounds like the same theme of Ron Paul’s recent speech. Voters are fickle bunch, half of them vote for the lesser of two evils, many of them don’t even know the candidates names very well.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhdufSTRdV0&eurl=http://www.new.facebook.com/groups.php?id=741682673

    Comment by Jono — September 10, 2008 @ 7:17 pm
  7. Sam I am
    I will not eat green eggs and ham

    Comment by Sam — September 10, 2008 @ 7:53 pm

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