The Palin Bump — Bigger Than I Expected
I’ve been saying for a long time that I’ve long figured this election was in the bag for Obama. Given the degree to which the nation is fed up with Bush and desiring change, coupled with the fact that he’s a dynamic speaker and near-celebrity, finally added to the historic demographic story of potentially ‘the first Black President’, and I thought it was a foregone conclusion.
As evidence, before the conventions, my favorite “poll”, the prediction market Intrade, had Obama trading at about a 60 share for the presidency with McCain trading about 39-40. A 60-40 split would have probably signified a landslide.
So I was shocked when I checked it today. Obama is trading at 53, McCain at 47. That kind of a move in this short of a time, given no major scandals, is a big deal. We’re talking “major chink in the armor” big deal. To see this happen in a week or so is a trend in the making.
Which, of course, just goes to show you that the American electorate is a fickle bunch. A woman whom the American public barely knows has just moved the real balance of electoral odds by a 14-point swing.
When it comes to Palin, I’ve said previously that she’s probably the best a Republican can expect, and is a mixed bag to libertarians. But when you see a VP candidate swing the odds this much, how can you not believe that our electoral process has become anything but American Idol writ large?
UPDATE 9/10/2008 – 7:39 PM : Even more shocking news. One night later, and Intrade has it 50-50…