Thoughts, essays, and writings on Liberty. Written by the heirs of Patrick Henry.

“Protecting the rights of even the least individual among us is basically the only excuse the government has for even existing.”     Ronald Reagan

May 8, 2009

Truth Hurts… Ignorance Hurts Worse

by Chris

I disagree with Schiff on hyperinflation; but we’re DEFINITELY going to be seeing significant inflation. I’m thinking 1979 levels or so.

Note: Schiff is also a firm believer in the inherent value fallacy; which is just that, a fallacy. There is no such thing as a stable currency, because nothing has inherent value. All value is circumstantial.

Fiat currency is a horrible thing, but the solution is NOT specie currency, which has its own issues (which can be just as bad as those of fiat currency). The solution is a global free currency market, without government value setting by fiat, OR by an arbitrary commodity standard… or any other arbitrary standard for that matter.

Let the market decide what the currency of a nation is worth, and it will seek its natural level AT ANY GIVEN MOMENT. Let the markets set their own confidence level, based on whatever a currency represents, is backed by, what its purchasing power is… whatever the market values.

We are approaching the technology basis that will allow this, though we aren’t there yet. Universal realtime international communications are a pre-requisite for an efficient currency market. Currently, currency markets present significant arbitrage opportunities based on asymmetric information, communications lag, and government distortion.

Unfortunately, now that governments have the power of fiat currency, they will absolutely refuse to give it up.

We’ve got maybe a 24 month window of slight recovery and plateauing of prices; then we doublehump this, with real economic contraction spurred on by the devaluing dollar, rapid inflation; and concomitant high interest rates, and tighter credit (you think credit is tight now? Not even close).

If you want to buy a house, do it 18-24 months from now on a fixed rate mortgage; and plan on living there the rest of your life. Inflation is going to wipe out a significant amount of your debt anyway.

… Presuming the Chinese don’t bail out on us entirely, and kick this off SIX months from now, instead of 24 months from now.

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