Where Is This Rally Headed?
As I’ve mentioned before, I sometimes question my allegiance to the belief that we’re in the midst of a bear market rally. Part of this is due to the constant media affinity for “green shoots”, and the fact that in many ways, the “second derivative” is actually improving…
But I don’t think the fundamentals are really there, given the financial debt/credit fueled nature of the boom that led to this.
So, it brings a question. Is there historical basis for a rally extending this long after a major shock? And I’d say yes:
At least one data point on that chart is up and to the right of the current rally. “But that’s only one point!” Yes, it is. It also bears one similarity to the current point — it was the first rally after the initial crash.
I think there’s more to come. And with every new
day government encroachment on the market, I become more and more sure of that fact.