Thoughts, essays, and writings on Liberty. Written by the heirs of Patrick Henry.

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September 14, 2009

Newspapers Report Green Shoots — In Sep 2008?

by Brad Warbiany

Want a laugh? Well go back one year to this column, and ruminate on whether it could be possible for the author to be any more wrong…

There have been 11 recessions since the Great Depression. And we’re nowhere close to being in the 12th one now. This isn’t just a matter of opinion. Words — even words as seemingly subjective as “recession” — have meaning.

Whatever the political outcome this year, hopefully this will prove to be yet another instance of that iron law of economics and markets: The sentiment of the majority is always wrong at key turning points. And the majority is plenty pessimistic right now. That suggests that we’re on the brink not of recession, but of accelerating prosperity.

Yes, folks, that was Sep 14, 2008!

He goes on to talk about how employment, industrial production, and the housing market really aren’t that bad and not in for anything severe.

I’m all for optimism. Any chance I can get some of whatever Luskin was smokin’?

I think Barry Ritholtz at The Big Picture puts it best:

If you had a time machine, knew the future, and purposefully tried to write something where every word was literally wrong, you could not have done a better job.

Go read the whole thing. Then decide whether you can take the MSM’s announcement of green shoots seriously.

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1 Comment

  1. [...] my co-blogger Brad at The Liberty Papers, we find what may qualify as the worst piece of economic forecasting in history: “It was the [...]

    Pingback by Below The Beltway » Blog Archive » On The Eve Of The 2008 Crash, One Analyst Got It Very, Very Wrong — September 14, 2009 @ 1:28 pm

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