Thoughts, essays, and writings on Liberty. Written by the heirs of Patrick Henry.

February 1, 2010

Optimism

by Brad Warbiany

Politicians all try to sell spending by underselling the true cost:

1) They determine a plan to spend money, sell it as low spending.
2) Despite pundits claiming it will be much higher than projected, they claim it’s not true.
3) When the spending is actually measured, it’s often higher than pundits’ estimates.

We’ve all seen the trajectory of the politicization of economic data:

1) Administration makes overly optimistic forecast.
2) Initial numbers (compiled by the government) look good (but below politician’s forecast).
3) Months later, numbers are quietly revised downward even further.

So tell me, if these are the optimistic numbers, just how royally screwed are we?

At the end of 2010, the unemployment rate, according to the administration’s forecast, will be 9.8%. At the end of 2011, the rate will be at 8.9%. And at the end of 2012, after the next presidential election, the unemployment rate will be 7.9%.

I guess rose-colored glasses don’t change the fact that you’re staring into a pile of shit.

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  • tfr

    Wow, those actually are the first realistic numbers I’ve seen. If this recession is typical, it will trail off slowly, just like that.

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