High Stakes Handicapping

Election '10, Politics

I’mna keep this relatively simple, since I’ve done detailed breakdowns on this subject (as to why I think these are the numbers) a couple times over the last few months.

So here’s my line on tomorrow (revised at 2200, because I was working off old numbers):

+8 Republican, -0/+4 to the senate

+63 Republican, -0/+16 to the house

I predict zero Republican senate seats lost, and the following as gains, or *strong maybes:

Arkansas – Boozman
*California – Fiorina
Colorado – Buck
*Connecticut – McMahon
Illinois – Kirk
Indiana – Coats
*Nevada – Angle
North Dakota – Hoeven
Penn – Toomey
* Washington – Rossi
West VA – Raese
Wisconsin – Johnson

I’m not really sure about CA, CT, NV or WA. I’m predicting Republican pickup of West VA, even though polls are a tossup to a slight Dem hold. I don’t trust that poll data, and I don’t think it’s a tossup. I’m leaning strong towards Rossi picking up. I’m leaning strong against Fiorina picking up. Right now, I’m completely split on Angle and McMahon.

The house picture is a lot fuzzier of course, since there’s so many close races.

First thing, there will probably be two losses of Rep seats:

Delaware AL – Carney
Louisiana 2nd – Richmond

I don’t see either as iffy right now; but I’m pretty sure those are the only losses.

Now, the iffys…

* Alabama 2 – Roby
* Arizona 7 – McLung
* California 47 – Tran
* Colorado 7 – Frazier
* Conn 5 – Caligiuri
* Idaho 1 – Labrador
* Indiana 1 – Walorski
* Kentucky 6 – Barr
* Minnesota 8 – Cravaack
* Missouri 4 – Hartzler
* North Carolina 2 – Ellmers
* North Carolina 7 – Pantano
* Penn 12 – Burns
* Rhode Island 1 – Loughlin
* Virginia 11 – Fimian
* Washington 2 – Koster

And the likely pickups

Arizona 1 – Gosar
Arizona 5 – Schweikert
Arizona 8 – Kelly
Arkansas 1 – Crawford
Arkansas 2 – Griffin
California 11 – Harmer
California 20 – Vidak
Colorado 3 – Tipton
Colorado 4 – Gardner
Connecticut 4 – Debicella
Florida 2 – Southerland
Florida 8 – Webster
Florida 22 – West
Florida 24 – Adams
Georgia 2 – Keown
Georgia 8 – Scott
Illinois 11 – Kinzinger
Illinois 14 – Hultgren
Illinois 17 – Schilling
Indiana 8 – Buchson
Indiana 9 – Young
Kansas 3 – Yoder
Louisiana 3 – Landry
Maryland 1 – Harris
Mass 10 – Perry
Michigan 1 – Benishek
Michigan 7 – Walberg
Mississippi 1 – Nunnelee
Mississippi 4 – Palazzo
Nevada 3 – Heck
New Hampshire 1 – Guinta
New Hampshire 2 – Bass
New Jersey 3 – Runyan
New Mexico 1 – Barela
New Mexico 2 – Pearce
New York 19 – Hayworth
New York 20 – Gibson
New York 23 – Doheny
North Carolina 8 – Johnson
North Dakota AL – Berg
Ohio 1 – Chabot
Ohio 6 – Johnson
Ohio 15 – Stivers
Ohio 16 – Renacci
Ohio 18 – Gibbs
Oregon 5 – Bruun
Penn 3 – Kelly
Penn 7 – Meehan
Penn 8 – Fitzpatrick
Penn 10 – Marino
Penn 11 – Barletta
S. Carolina 5 – Mulvaney
S. Dakota AL – Noem
Tenn 4 – DesJarlais
Tenn 6 – Black
Tenn 8 – Fincher
Texas 17 – Flores
Texas 23 – Canseco
Virginia 2 – Rigel
Virginia 5 – Hurt
Virginia 9 – Griffith
Washington 3 – Herrero
W. Virginia 1 – McKinley
Wisconsin 7 – Duffy
Wisconsin 8 – Ribble

I’m very iffy on CA 47, CT 5, and RI 1. I’m pretty solid on Labrador taking over Minnicks seat in Idaho (my congressman); as Minnick has been desperately robocalling my house every few hours, AND I got a personal phone call from a staffer. I’m pretty solid on Grijalva losing Arizona 7. The rest… who knows.

UPDATED with new data at 2200.

Chris Byrne
I am a cynically romantic optimistic pessimist. I am neither liberal, nor conservative. I am a (somewhat disgruntled) muscular minarchist… something like a constructive anarchist.

Basically what that means, is that I believe, all things being equal, responsible adults should be able to do whatever the hell they want to do, so long as nobody’s getting hurt, who isn’t paying extra